Packer's 2024 Cap Plans

[CheezWizHed]

To keep this from being redundant with the Offseason thread, I'm trying to focus solely on what we do to improve our cap situation

After a couple years of salary cap hell, I think the Packers might be able to pursue some players in FA as well as take care of a few of their own. Gute did well in his last major FA spending spree (Amos, Z Smith, P Smith, and Turner) so I'm interested what he can do this year.  But in order to get there, there is some cap management that needs to be handled.

Current Cap situation:  With an estimated CAP of $251M, we have a total of $8M free for 2024.  Our highest CAP hits are as follows: 

Last column is % of cap. Second to last is the 2024 cap hit.

The Release Options:

• Bakhtiari: Probably the most unsurprising action the Packers can take is to release Bakh for a cap savings of nearly $21M
• Campbell: De'Vondre is a player that really hasn't been living up to his contract.  He is still helpful on the team, but I'd say there are 75% odds he is cut for the $2.6M cap savings.
• Newman: Cutting Seinfeld's mortal enemy doesn't save much on the cap ($124k), but just needs to be done.  100%. 
• Jones: Aaron showed his team worth this last year so this would be a very hard cut to swallow.  But he will be 30 next year and that age doesn't agree with RBs typically.  Cap savings of over $5M if cut.  He is in the last year of his contract. Chances of being cut: 10%
• Clark:  Kenny is another player that might not be holding up his contract.  Slated to be paid $22M this year on the last year of his contract (note payment, not cap hit), it is hard to say he is providing that level of value. He played very well down the stretch, but that is a hefty price. However... we only save just over $3M by cutting him (thanks to previous void year adds).  Chances of being cut: 5%

Extensions:

• Jordan Love: The clear option for an extension.  The real question here is if his extension will save money on the cap or not?  His current cap hit is $13M, but I'm seeing average contract value of $44M.  So it is hard to guess the cap impact there.  I'll assume $0 cap savings for the purposes of my thoughts here. 
• Clark: Kenny doesn't make a compelling cut option and is still playing at a high level.  He is 28 now, so a good possibility to reduce his cap with an extension.  The next three years of the cap are already filled with about $22M via void years on Clark's deal.  I believe an extension might be able to clean that up (some).  Or at least reduce next years $14M cap hit. I'm going to guess we can save $10M on this year's cap with an extension. 
• Jones: Aaron is in his last year of the contract, but is about to turn 30.  He is playing at a high level, but injuries are popping up more often.  I'd still entertain an extension of 1 or 2 years. Jones is another that has around $12.5M in void year cap hits over the next 3 years. If we extend Jones, I'd guess a savings of around $5M for 2024. 

Contract adjustments: - Gute used void years and converting salary to bonuses many times in years past. I hope he doesn't use that trick much in the future as we have numerous people hitting our next three years of caps due to that trick. 

• Alexander: Jaire's extension is pretty new, so I wouldn't touch that... but perhaps converting his salary to a bonus would reduce this year's hit (pushing more to the future two years - no void years).  I'm not crazy about these moves, but just to see the "edges" of our options.  This would save nearly $4M. Similar could be done with Jenkins for similar savings. 

So, if you cut Bakh, Campbell, and Newman, we get to a cap space of $32.5M. If you extend Clark and Jones, you gain another $15M (my guess), so that puts us at $47.5M in cap space with a 43 man roster.  And that is without the void year gymnastics we've done in year's past or other minor things that could be done (i.e. Jaire/Jenkins conversion of salary to bonus) to gain a few more millions here or there. 

That should give us ample room to extend Love, sign our draft picks, rebuild our safety room, and prop up other areas of weakness. 

 

Note: all cap savings comments are based on a pre-June 1st cut.  I'm not advocating pushing our "issues" to next year and the cap space doesn't help us that much after June 1st anyway.

Note 2: Data coming from spotrac.com.  They have a nice feature to "manage" the team and make your own cuts or simple restructures.

[CheezWizHed]

Maybe of interest would be Josh Allen's 2021 extension - 6 years, $258M total, $43M average (similar to what is being proposed for Love).  His 1st year cap hit (his 5th year on rookie deal) was $10M. 

That at least makes me think we can stay within Love's current cap hit of $13M for next year. 

[BrewerFan]

8 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Current Cap situation:  With an estimated CAP of $251M, we have a total of $8M free for 2024. 

Anyone know what is actually going on with the cap? The cap is ~25M or more lower due to the Covid losses. The 2021 Cap should have ~120 and they settled on 198...to be spread out with interest over 4 years(starting in '21, so '21, '22, '23) and they said they were well ahead of schedule last year. But I've heard nothing about this since. 

Makes me think we're looking at another year before the cap takes that big jump.

8 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Contract adjustments: - Gute used void years and converting salary to bonuses many times in years past. I hope he doesn't use that trick much in the future as we have numerous people hitting our next three years of caps due to that trick. 

No, I would agree. I don't expect he will, but I do hope he's more aggressive than Thompson.

In both years he was our GM, he spent aggressively when we had space. I think that suggests he's going to be aggressive, but it's hard to tell.

Outside of Safety, Packers fans can't seem to agree on what needs to be addressed. I've been pretty clear about where I think they should invest(heavily) and that's OL. Others believe Walker is on a Bakh arc. I saw one prominent writer say they should draft a RT and kick Tom inside to RG(the last thing I'd do personally...LT/RT/C and then RG). So maybe Tyron Smith as we try and develop a guy or have Walker as cheap depth? Smith is similar to Bakh, he's elite when he can go.

 

Safety makes more sense though. Jordan Love makes the most yet.

9 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

 

Note: all cap savings comments are based on a pre-June 1st cut.  I'm not advocating pushing our "issues" to next year and the cap space doesn't help us that much after June 1st anyway.

No, all that does it leave more dead cap for '25 when we should be, as things stand, 80M or sounder the cap even with Love(but no Clark, Jones, or any other FA signings, just Love).

9 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Clark: Kenny doesn't make a compelling cut option and is still playing at a high level.  He is 28 now, so a good possibility to reduce his cap with an extension.  The next three years of the cap are already filled with about $22M via void years on Clark's deal.  I believe an extension might be able to clean that up (some).  Or at least reduce next years $14M cap hit. I'm going to guess we can save $10M on this year's cap with an extension. 

You could also save money with Savage or Nixon if you extend them before the start of the league year. I'd bring both back...at the right price.

I like Nixon more as a safety. He can fly, has great speed. He's tough, he can tackle, but he's not real loose, so maybe not a great fit in the slot.

 

Better turn that Douglas pick into something the way the season ended up going.

8 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Maybe of interest would be Josh Allen's 2021 extension - 6 years, $258M total, $43M average (similar to what is being proposed for Love).  His 1st year cap hit (his 5th year on rookie deal) was $10M. 

5/250 sounds like the right number, but it's going to go up the longer they wait. He's already due 13 next year with the escalators. I've also seen people thinking he'd get 5/180. Some people are going to probably be upset when he signs(though some people are upset when the sun comes up, so...oh well, that's the going price).

Gutekunst truly has a blank slate to work with moving forward. He can pick any position in the 1st(though it may be too early to groom the next QB). A WRer, I've seen mocks with Bowers falling, that'd be a little wild, but he's a helluva pass catcher. A WRer could go first, a DL. Whoever the best value is. 

Or, they could decide there is a need.

But he just has to not screw up what he's done. Sign Tom after next year. If they extend Clark, I wouldn't go past ~3 years and stay in the 55M range. 

JRJ, let him walk.
 

I would not extend Jones though. He took a cut last year and he's going to be 30. I'd ask him to take a 4-5M cut...then go year to year after. That's tough though because he had a great run, but he played half the snaps and had his least productive year(though a helluva run at the end).

9 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Alexander: Jaire's extension is pretty new, so I wouldn't touch that... but perhaps converting his salary to a bonus would reduce this year's hit (pushing more to the future two years - no void years).  I'm not crazy about these moves, but just to see the "edges" of our options.  This would save nearly $4M. Similar could be done with Jenkins for similar savings. 

There've been rumors that Alexander's willingness to push his 8M roster bonus down the road or into incentives may dictate if he's back next year. That seems incredibly stupid...unless you can get acceptable trade value(which I'd put at a 1st+3rd and maybe another pick, but with the injuries the past 2 of 3 years, IDK who agrees to that). 

It'd also just create a hole. You'd better have an idea what scheme you're going to play and fast. Let the DC have a say. You want to play this Cover2/3, DeJean from Iowa would be great, but getting some safeties would be even more important.
Go with an aggressive scheme, Jaire is worth his weight in gold. Even in a zone, conservative scheme, he's a difference-maker. 

[CheezWizHed]

10 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

I would not extend Jones though. He took a cut last year and he's going to be 30. I'd ask him to take a 4-5M cut...then go year to year after. That's tough though because he had a great run, but he played half the snaps and had his least productive year(though a helluva run at the end).

My thought in extending Jones would be rather than ask him to reduce his salary (which is an option), you give him another year or two in the $5-6M range.  I think Jones wants to stay with the team, so a win-win, IMO.

Sure it is a bit risky with a 30+ yo RB, but Jones (when healthy) is highly productive and unique among RBs.

10 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

There've been rumors that Alexander's willingness to push his 8M roster bonus down the road or into incentives may dictate if he's back next year. That seems incredibly stupid...unless you can get acceptable trade value(which I'd put at a 1st+3rd and maybe another pick, but with the injuries the past 2 of 3 years, IDK who agrees to that). 

It'd also just create a hole. You'd better have an idea what scheme you're going to play and fast. Let the DC have a say. You want to play this Cover2/3, DeJean from Iowa would be great, but getting some safeties would be even more important.
Go with an aggressive scheme, Jaire is worth his weight in gold. Even in a zone, conservative scheme, he's a difference-maker. 

I only focused on "simple" contract changes with the point of showing that we can get a pretty good chunk of cap savings with simple moves.  More complicated means are of course still there if we need more. 

Cutting or trading Jaire would be silly.  

1. He is still a great CB. I'm more concerned about the health of his back than his attitude.
2. He responded well to the suspension.  Said the right things, did the right things, fought hard for the team in the last games.
3. I think a few issues we were seeing on D (more than just Jaire) was the lack of leadership from JB.  A new DC - especially one like JL that would be more aggressive would handle Jaire better and get him excited to play D again. 
4. Cutting or trading him adds over $3M to our salary cap.  That is why I didn't bother looking into that for the cuts. 

[BrewerFan]

15 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

My thought in extending Jones would be rather than ask him to reduce his salary (which is an option), you give him another year or two in the $5-6M range.  I think Jones wants to stay with the team, so a win-win, IMO.

Sure it is a bit risky with a 30+ yo RB, but Jones (when healthy) is highly productive and unique among RBs.

I guess...he's one of those guys who's value exceeds his actual performance(that's pretty rare). And even then, his performance was incredible.

I'd love to see a Bucky Irvin to go with Emanuel Wilson...a guy I really believe will be a really nice back. Then limit Jones carries until later in the year. Having him around the team is huge.

15 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

I only focused on "simple" contract changes with the point of showing that we can get a pretty good chunk of cap savings with simple moves.  More complicated means are of course still there if we need more. 

Sure, we could do the same thing we've done the last few years and get 60M under, but i'm with you. It's not a good idea at the start of Love's run.

If you start now, you'll likely be just going in circles for years. I REALLY wish the Packers were more proactive though. I've gone on long rants about this, but...hypothetically, lets say Tom has another elite year. Give him that 8-year deal that Dallas gave Tyron Smith. 8 years 140M. It'll set the market now, but it'll save you money in the long run. To me, it's like signing pre-arbitration players. If you miss on a couple, it'll hurt, but if you're doing it with elite players(Gary would have been another) I think you'll come out ahead.

Compare what Bakh and Tyron Smith got. A 7 years 350 extension(so ~8/365 for Love) with 120 GTD against injury and performance, 170 vs injury, it allows you to keep extending him as KC is doing with Mahomes. It has to be a player you feel really good about. Quay could be an option at the LB price. 

But they'll go 4 years at a time, he'll likely get ~20M AAV(more if he moves to LT). 

15 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Cutting or trading Jaire would be silly.  

1. He is still a great CB. I'm more concerned about the health of his back than his attitude.
2. He responded well to the suspension.  Said the right things, did the right things, fought hard for the team in the last games.
3. I think a few issues we were seeing on D (more than just Jaire) was the lack of leadership from JB.  A new DC - especially one like JL that would be more aggressive would handle Jaire better and get him excited to play D again. 
4. Cutting or trading him adds over $3M to our salary cap.  That is why I didn't bother looking into that for the cuts. 

I don't think it's a good idea, but there are a LOT of signs pointing to Jaire not being back.

Schefter's report about his 8M signing bonus;

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39210120/jaire-alexander-roster-bonus-key-cb-packers-future-sources-say

I completely agree with you with the leadership(I think Ja's good for the locker room...that laid-back confidence and the aggressive style of play). He did something stupid, but he was not the only one who had issues with coaching.

That said, you're just talking about creating cap space this year...but again, like with Campbell, if you cut him this year, then in '25 when we have a to of cap space, they'd be off the books. NOT a good enough reason to move on from an elite player at a premium position, but that'd be the salary cap argument(really though, how can you not at LEAST get something in a trade for him).

You only do this IF

1. You think his shoulder injuries are going to become more troubling or he can't hold up physically? That's just about training and luck.
2. You're not going to change your scheme and it's not a great use of money to have a 20M cover corner when you're playing Vic Fangio's defense. That seems like it'd be compounding stupid with stupid as the Fangio Defense's worked when he had BIG CBs and safeties.
3. There's more going on and they don't think Ja is a good leader? It really shouldn't be about the money. Most teams that have a ton of cap space...aren't very good. You lack cap space because you have lots of players to pay or you're really young...usually.

Maybe it's nothing, but this feels like something when combined with previous reports.

Jaire's own Insta;