The Milwaukee Brewers Are All-In On 2024. So, What Next?

[Jake McKibbin]

Rhys Hoskins is the type of big-name external addition the Brewers have been crying out for over the last few seasons, and the biggest free agent to come to Milwaukee since Lorenzo Cain in 2018. With many wondering what their goals were for 2024, it’s now clear: Milwaukee are all in. How does the roster look now, and how can the Brewers look to upgrade further?

Image courtesy of © Stephanie Amador / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK

Rhys Hoskins is a massive upgrade at first base, regardless of his defensive limitations, in large part because his bat is just what the Brewers were missing last season, both in the regular season and in the playoffs. Power changes games in an instant, and it’s something Hoskins possesses in abundance, with an average of 36 home runs and 36 doubles per 162 games over his career so far. However, the Brewers have questions remaining if they want to commit to winning it all in 2024, and while Hoskins gives them a great shot at getting another “bite of the apple,” those World Series odds could do with another boost.

The Starting Rotation
With a haze of inactivity hanging over baseball (and especially over the lackadaisical NL Central) since the Yoshinobu Yamamoto signing, the Brewers intention to win this season couldn’t be more clear now, which should put an end to rumors of trades for Willy Adames and Corbin Burnes, at least for the time being. It’s refreshing to see a team approach the sport with a desire to win each and every season, and certainly not something to fault the Brewers for. However, they do have a little work left to do in certain areas, not least the starting rotation;

Brandon Woodruff, while pitching only 67 innings, produced 2.4 WAR in 2023. Over a workload like Burnes's, Woodruff would have led the league by 1.5 WAR, a monstrous feat. Although small in quantity, the quality and impact of his innings will need to be replaced. The Brewers have attempted to go the route of hoping for better starts from the back end of their rotation, in particular gambling on the form and fitness of Wade Miley and Aaron Ashby, to provide stability and consistency while Colin Rea and Joe Ross create depth. Ashby and Miley haven't been models of consistency, and while the performances of Julio Teheran and Rea in 2023 were immensely valuable, they’re unlikely to be repeated in 2024. Between Woodruff's departure and some possible regression, the team needs to get some value by improving the rest of the rotation.

One way in which to see this boost is to project stronger form from both Burnes and Freddy Peralta. Both struggled to begin 2023 for a variety of reasons, including Peralta tipping pitches, and Burnes struggling with his pitch mix. However, both finished the season with Pitcher of the Month awards after the All-Star break and showed how dominant they can truly be. Burnes had a 2.71 ERA in the second half, while Peralta had more strikeouts per nine than anyone on his way to a 2.81 ERA. A dominant two-headed dragon at the top followed by average production from the middle and back end of their rotation would leave the Brewers more than happy with the state of their pitching corps.

They may still be eyeing up a reliable innings eater for their back end, such as Michael Lorenzen, Mike Clevinger, or even the injury-prone yet higher-ceiling Hyun-Jin Ryu. All of the above would be intriguing, but the lack of minor-league options for both Rea and Ross suggests that the Brewers may be finished with their rotation.

The Middle of the Order
In Hoskins, the Brewers finally have a reliable slugger who (health permitting) will drive in runs from the heart of the order. That being said, one slugger alone rarely creates an intimidating lineup, and with table setters like Sal Frelick and Christian Yelich, there’s a belief that multiple 30-plus home runs players will change this offense from mediocre to fearsome. To that end, the Brewers are currently relying on high-upside (if less reliable) power coming from three talented players with differing problems.

Willy Adames has shown he can clear the 30 home-run mark, and managed to demonstrate a hitherto unseen ability to take his walks in 2023. In that very process, however, he lost his power stroke, with his underlying metrics showing a significant decline in both exit velocity and consistency in the quality of contact he made. Adames confessed to his own frustrations at finding his form for short periods of time, before seeing it drift away again. There were suspicions that an early-season concussion may have had a greater effect than initially realized, however the long and short is that heading into his free-agent walk season, Adames will be desperate to show what his bat can do. Finding that home run ceiling again will go a long way to finding a sizable offer in free agency, along with his usual high-quality defense.

Jackson Chourio is highly likely to start the season with the big-league club, and showed remarkable progress last season in his contact rates while dealing with special, pre-tacked balls in Double-A Biloxi, producing absurd exit velocities for his age and frame. His biggest issue is his chase rate, often swinging outside the zone and generating weaker contact, resulting in easier outs. If Chourio can continue to develop physically over the offseason and become a shade more selective at the plate, he has MVP contender written all over him. If he can tap into his pull side a little more often as well, Chourio has the ability to threaten the 40-home run mark, but it seems unfair to expect or project such lofty goals on a player still learning and developing. We may see him flourish later in the season, but early in the year, you can expect to see Chourio improving his chase rates slowly and adapting to the quality of major league pitching.

Brewers minor-league hitting coordinator Brenton del Chiaro recently spoke (on Just Baseball's podcast with Aram Leighton) about the hard work Joey Wiemer is putting in behind the scenes to clean up his pre-swing movements, marking him as someone to watch this season. An elite defender, especially in right field, Wiemer showed prodigious power, but his hit tool struggled mightily in the majors, especially toward the end of the season. He is undoubtably a 30-home run talent, if his contact skills reach even a slightly below-average quality. However, a particular weakness with breaking pitches was exploited time and again by the best pitchers in the league.

He started to simplify his load in Nashville after his September demotion, and further doing so will allow his athletic hands and exceptional raw power to do serious damage. He may be a left field shout, but don’t be at all surprised to see Wiemer crushing it in 2024. 

All in all, the Brewers have some prospects coming through who will make them loath to look for power upgrades at third base or corner outfield spots, making it more likely than not that they stick with what they have lineup-wise. Betting on a power surge from one of the above three seems like it could pay off, but only time will tell. If they hit on two of them, this becomes a top-five lineup in baseball.

Middle Infielders (and Turang)
Brice Turang is an exceptional defender at second base, perhaps the best in the league. His glove allowed him to produce 1.6 bWAR with just a .585 OPS at the plate--quite remarkable, but also untenable as a black hole at the bottom of the order. Matt Trueblood recently wrote about how Turang could benefit from cutting the plate in half, and even a slightly below average bat could be a valuable addition for the Brewers. It would be wise, however, to hedge their bets, and with Tyler Black not being an effective defender at second base, this could force the Brewers to look outside their current clubhouse.

One very intriguing (and likely cost-effective) option on the market is Tim Anderson, who’s bat-to-ball skills and high-quality defensive acumen would fit the Brewers. He has a reputation as a tough personality, and a shockingly bad 2023 season (that is, in fairness, a huge outlier for him) creates some risk, but it’s important to note just how poorly managed the malfunctioning White Sox were in 2023, and that it could have played a large part in his struggles. The Brewers' strong clubhouse, something Hoskins will only add to, will be able to handle Anderson and potentially even get the best out of him, while allowing Turang’s bat to adjust and develop alongside him. Other options include Whit Merrifield, who produced less WAR than Turang last season, and potentially Oliver Dunn, who cost Henry Mendez and Robert Moore this offseason but has a power bat and plus speed, with a patient approach that may play in the big leagues.

The Long and Short
There are cost-effective options out there for a Brewers team that is clearly trying to compete. Whether they prefer internal options or to take gambles on the likes of Ryu or Anderson (who, at their best, are difference makers, but carry major risk), though, remains to be seen. If they go in as they are, you’d bet the Milwaukee Brewers as favorites to win the NL Central, but the goal is a World Series, which might mean they need that little bit extra.

What do you think, Brewer Fanatics? Are the Brewers set for the season ahead? Or can you see one more interesting signing to dream on? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below

 

View full article

[Jason Wang]

jake is that a picture of you in the thumbnail?

[brewmann04]

I still think they have 2 targets one Pitcher and one Bat

[Jason Wang]

FanGraphs interestingly has Hoskins projected at 115 wRC+ over 630 plate appearances, so not a hugely impactful bat but still an improvement over Jake Bauers I guess.

I think the Brewers need another impact signing if they want to be more serious contenders. While they're probably favored to be the top dog in the Central, the rest of the NL is just so stacked that making it through the gauntlet to reach the WS or even the Pennant is going to be tough with the roster as is.

[Jake McKibbin]

20 minutes ago, Jason Wang said:

FanGraphs interestingly has Hoskins projected at 115 wRC+ over 630 plate appearances, so not a hugely impactful bat but still an improvement over Jake Bauers I guess.

I think the Brewers need another impact signing if they want to be more serious contenders. While they're probably favored to be the top dog in the Central, the rest of the NL is just so stacked that making it through the gauntlet to reach the WS or even the Pennant is going to be tough with the roster as is.

It is a crapshoot though, something the Diamondbacks proved last year. And power gives them a better chance, on top of two studs at the top of the rotation

Interesting about his projection though, as he's never had a particular down season, the question with Hoskins is cam he stay healthy more than anything.

Another impact signing definitely solidifies them as favourites, especially a mid rotation starter (like a 2.5) but I'm not sure they can afford that, and the lack of movement elsewhere in the Central does make it less needful. I'm with you though on that one!

25 minutes ago, brewmann04 said:

I still think they have 2 targets one Pitcher and one Bat

Arroyo may be the bat, but can definitely see a pitcher. Joe Ross may not be fully pencilled in, meaning they have more to come, but I can see both ways in terms of the rotation and middle infield (especially after Arroyo signed) to stick or twist. Where would you upgrade positionally?

 

29 minutes ago, Jason Wang said:

 

 

[SF70]

Team is set to win and win big.

The rotation has enough options internally. They go 7 deep with Burnes-Peralta-Miley-Rea-Ross-Gasser-McKendry with Ashby the wild-card and likely to rotation at some point during the year. I think we see CRod before the year is out, but only if he’s needed.

The Bullpen is the strength of the team, and deep with big arms all the way thru Biloxi.

The offense with the additions of Hoskins-Chourio-Black, Adames in his contract year, and experience gained from Turang-Frelick-Wiemer with Mitchell back and healthy is as underrated as any in baseball.

Power-Speed-Baserunning, it has it all. The defense is still strong, even with Black at 3B and Hoskins at 1B.

They have the financial-flexibility and farm system to acquire whoever they want to at the deadline to fix weaknesses.

I think we see the team let the young talent develop and entering the postseason this team will be a top 5 team in baseball.

[Playing Catch]

I think people are getting a big too excited about Hoskins. He's a huge upgrade from what the Brewers got last year, but he's not, and never has been, an all-star. I think why I, and obviously the majority of posters here, wanted him was simply because it made so much sense for a lower payroll team. If Hoskins was really good, the Brewers never would have been able to sign him in the first place.

[Jake McKibbin]

8 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

I think people are getting a big too excited about Hoskins. He's a huge upgrade from what the Brewers got last year, but he's not, and never has been, an all-star. I think why I, and obviously the majority of posters here, wanted him was simply because it made so much sense for a lower payroll team. If Hoskins was really good, the Brewers never would have been able to sign him in the first place.

I think part of the excitement has to be related to the size of upgrade he is on last season, it's monumental as well as bringing the power element that should drive in a ton of runs with the on base skills at the top of the order.

He's not a world beater on his own, but the fit is just so good as you mentioned. And I think the ACL injury is a big reason they could afford him at all, and the only reason the contract is a short one

[old hickory]

4 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

I think people are getting a big too excited about Hoskins. He's a huge upgrade from what the Brewers got last year, but he's not, and never has been, an all-star. I think why I, and obviously the majority of posters here, wanted him was simply because it made so much sense for a lower payroll team. If Hoskins was really good, the Brewers never would have been able to sign him in the first place.

Agreed... i think i was more excited to see a different approach than Smoak, Voit, Vogelbach, Thames, Aguilar, Singleton, Tellez, or even Bauers for that matter.  While there has been a modicum of success from the bevy of players mentioned, it's nice to get a 1B that other teams actually wanted.