These 2023 Brewers Freshmen Could be Primed for 2024 Breakouts

[Jake McKibbin]

There are strong reasons why both Sal Frelick and Joey Wiemer may be poised for big breakouts in 2024. Here's why you need to keep a close eye on these two young freshmen:

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

The "Freshmen" were a much-vaunted portion of the Brewers system early last season, with video on Brice Turang, Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell, and Joey Wiemer catching fire and providing a buzz around the club that we hadn’t seen for a while. Despite some hot moments in the season, such as Turang’s grand slam against the Mets, Sal Frelick’s 3-4 debut, and Joey Wiemer’s red-hot June, the freshmen never quite took off. The experience of their first year does leave shoots of hope that we may see some more consistent performances this season from Joey Wiemer and Sal Frelick in particular.

Joey Wiemer
Brenton del Chiaro talked this offseason about the Brewers farm system, specifically mentioning Joey Wiemer, lauding him for using his athleticism during at-bats to access extreme power and adjust his bat path mid-swing depending on pitches. His swing was long and overly complicated, especially in the load phase. He had extreme issues with breaking pitches, and no one in the big leagues faced a higher percentage of breaking pitches. He also demonstrated roughly average plate discipline, which ties in with del Chiaro’s assessment of his use of athleticism, but his in-zone swing and miss was troubling. By September, he knew he had to change, but he didn’t want to lose his natural power, and he had only a few weeks in Nashville to get game time on the alterations. That being said, you can already see a difference in his setup pre-release:

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Although the second image is a home run, you can see his hands moving far more pre-release, resulting in a less repeatable swing compared with the sac fly above. Previously, with all the movement in his wrists, he wasn’t starting his swing from the same position, which meant he couldn’t regularly square up the baseball. A more straightforward setup should allow him to create a more consistent bat path without losing any of the raw power he possesses in his gigantic frame.

Wiemer had a serious problem swinging and missing inside the strike zone in the big leagues, with anything 25% or above a poor return in the zone. The above graphic should be taken with a pinch of salt due to the sample size and the pitching differential. However, you can see a big improvement in his ability to make contact all within the strike zone, which should help him skyrocket in 2024. 

Also, considering the small sample size, he started to time up hanging, breaking pitches. Avg exit velocities of 110.8 mph and 105.4 mph over the heart of the plate are no joke against breaking pitches, with continued development here likely forcing more fastballs his way. For reference, he slugged .487 against the fastball last season, so there should be no qualms about seeing more of those babies in a season’s span.

The Brewers' organizational philosophy is to allow hitters to be themselves and approach the coaches when they want to fix elements of their swing, something Wiemer appeared to do upon his demotion to Triple A at the end of last season. Del Chiaro said that Wiemer specifically is someone they’re incredibly excited about this season, referencing Wiemer’s work on his own this offseason and how he has peppered coaching staff with videos for feedback on various alterations to simplify his swing while retaining the power that gives him such a tremendous ceiling. Joey Wiemer may have the lowest stock value right now, but expect a big jump in his performance in 2024. 

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Sal Frelick
Ken Rosenthal just broke the news about Sal Frelick’s versatility extending to the infield, covering his work with Dustin Pedroia and adding another string to the talented youngsters' bow. With this likely more of an emergency, the most significant impact in 2024 will be with the bat after a thumb injury sapped his power in 2023.

Frelick has always been known as a contact first hitter with exceptional bat-to-ball skills and a good eye at the plate, but Keith Law wrote last year about how he’s a step above the Steven Kwan hitter mold with minimal power. It’s clear that the thumb injury he sustained on the basepaths had a significant effect on his power output, as you can see even just in his minor league production last year:

In 2022 in the minors, he was able to square up the baseball more effectively, specifically turning on pitches on the inner third. He tried to do this repeatedly with the big league club but couldn’t generate the quality of contact, forcing him to fall back on his gritty mentality and scramble his way on base. Sal Frelick may never be a 20+ home run player, but he should be able to hit for a higher average and turn on pitches for more damage. As you can see from 2022, he can hit the ball hard, really hard if it’s in his zone, and tapping into that at the major league level will go a long way to cementing a position at the top of the Brewers order. Both these data samples are from the minor leagues and the significant dropoff in exit velocities after his thumb troubles are a very clear reason for his lower power output.

The other big thing for Frelick is his ground ball rate, which skyrocketed in the major leagues last season. A consistent line drive hitter throughout the minor leagues, he struggled to elevate both in the minors and the majors last season after his thumb injury. Manipulating the bat's barrel is challenging; however, with a thumb issue, that becomes exponentially harder. Frelick’s power and batting average should take significant steps forward from a clean bill of health as a result. That clean stroke can be added to his naturally gritty batting capabilities to create a pretty fearsome hitter in this lineup.

The long and short of it is that both these freshmen have shown the capability for more than last year's performance, and there are reasons to be excited for their second year in the big leagues. While Garrett Mitchell has both injury issues and strikeout problems and Brice Turang had perhaps the worst struggles of the lot with the bat, both Sal Frelick and Joey Wiemer could be the kind of impact players for the Brewers that take them to a whole new level offensively. Spring Training will be a fascinating watch, and we at Brewer Fanatic can’t wait to see what each can bring to the table this season.

Also Frelick looks kind of smooth here doesn't he?

What do you think of the potential breakouts above? Can you see either Wiemer or Frelick taking the next step? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!

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[JohnBriggs12]

Brewers would be wise to hold on to Frelick, Wiemer, and Mitchell for that matter and not see them breakout for another team.  Yeah i get they seem to have one outfielder too many but it's not like any of them have yet shown sustained success in the big leagues and they still have options.  Wiemer's undergone significant swing changes.  I'd let him start the year in Nashville and see what the results are there before I bring him up.

[SF70]

21 minutes ago, JohnBriggs12 said:

Brewers would be wise to hold on to Frelick, Wiemer, and Mitchell for that matter and not see them breakout for another team.  Yeah i get they seem to have one outfielder too many but it's not like any of them have yet shown sustained success in the big leagues and they still have options.  Wiemer's undergone significant swing changes.  I'd let him start the year in Nashville and see what the results are there before I bring him up.

Yeah, Wiemer needs time at AAA just to gain the extra ST season, so starting him off at AAA makes sense. 

As far as holding all 3, I also think that makes sense unless the team gets a trade offer on one they just can’t turn down.

I doubt that happens with Mitchell or Wiemer, but maybe it does with Frelick, who likely has the most trade value of the 3.

They have so much OF depth it’s ridiculous, with Black an OF option as well, especially if one of our current OF group is traded.

Fascinating to see what moves if any the FO makes moving forward.

[GasserFace]

This season appears to be set up as a competitive/tryout season. The front office thinks they have a competitive team but they aren’t certain who the real contributors are. They are basically trying out guys this year and will play the group that succeeds. Injuries, slumps and adjustments happen every year.  It is way too early to trade any of these players.

Shoot, Turang could have added 15 pounds of muscle this offseason and hits 5 homers this spring. We just don’t know what will happen so it is best to keep our options open while these guys are pre arb.