Joey Ortiz & Oliver Dunn: Is There A Method To Pat Murphy’s Madness?

[Jake McKibbin]

Pat Murphy has limited Joey Ortiz's playing time in recent weeks in favor of testing out Oliver Dunn. Is there a legitimate reason for this decision?

Image courtesy of © Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Pat Murphy attributed the last week or so to seeing what Oliver Dunn can do when given the opportunity, and to be fair, Dunn has shown some positives. 50% of his batted balls are at least 95 mph, but unlocking that quality contact consistently has provided issues. His defense has been magnificent, and he’s one of the fastest players in the majors. So the question is, can Murphy’s decisions be justified?

The Bat Profiles
Joey Ortiz has taken strides forward from his Triple-A performance last season. Big exit velocities in 2023 were contrasted with big ground ball rates due to chasing excessively inside and below the strike zone, which limited the damage he could do. So far this season, he hasn't quite accessed the same hard-hit balls; however, there’s been a big change in his patience and understanding of what pitches he can damage. Ortiz’s chase and swing-and-miss rates are in the top 15% of baseball’s hitters, alongside a walk rate in the top 3%.

Due to the lower exit velocities and ground balls, his expected numbers are significantly lower than his counting stats so far, with an expected slugging of just .346 on the year, mostly because he struggled to get the ball in the air, exactly as advertised. However, since the 19th of April, his expected line is .259/.373/.548, which matches the eye test. He’s been getting the ball in the air with a 29% fly ball rate, but there remains a slight question as to whether he can recover some of the extremely high exit velocities from Triple-A in 2023. It’s generally easier to hit the ball hard into the ground than in the air, but it is an area for even more growth in Ortiz’s hitting profile.

Oliver Dunn, on the other hand since April 19th has just a 70% contact rate, absurdly low for a hitter with real strength for staying inside the strike zone. Jack Stern recently wrote about how hitters have adjusted to pummeling him in the strike zone as he’s shown no ability to punish them when they do. When making contact over this time, he has a 55% hard-hit rate, so you can see the appeal from Murphy in that if the contact skills improve, then Oliver Dunn could be a difference-making bat but perhaps needs a little more seasoning at this time. His expected line in contrast with Ortiz is a measly .152/.217/.221. Here is how his bat profiles contact-wise in the zone:

Dunn doesn’t miss a lot on belt-high pitches, but anything near the strike zone's edges is proving an extraordinary challenge for him. You shouldn't have a swing-and-miss rate of 50% or more in any area of the strike zone to be effective at the big league level, but it's pervaded Oliver Dunn's strike zone. For comparison’s sake, Ortiz’s whiff map is here:

The argument for Oliver Dunn’s extra playing time of late is perhaps the Brewers believe he will develop more effectively and quickly with that seasoning happening at the big league level instead of at Triple-A, and perhaps he’s not that far away. It can take just one minor tweak to click, and Dunn could go off, but this may be costing the Brewers wins in the here and now.

Ortiz has shown improved patience at the plate, allowing him to take considerably more walks than expected. He’s never been an on-base machine, but that patience is allowing him to avoid ground balls and get on base, which gives his hitting profile a high floor even if the power output does fluctuate.

The Matchups
So here is where there may be a method to Murphy’s madness. Joey Ortiz has been demolishing sliders and sweepers this season, with an expected slugging of .540 against sliders and .680 against sweepers. Seth Lugo aside (who still has a very effective slider) each of Sonny Gray (52% whiff rate, 16% usage), Brady Singer (42.2% usage) and Hayden Wesneski (39.7% usage) in Ortiz’s last three starts have featured either highly used or highly effective sweepers/sliders. It’s too early in the season for adequate numbers per pitch type, but it may be one of the reasons why Ortiz is getting starts in these matchups.

Dunn’s struggles, even when deployed, suggest it may have been more effective to keep Ortiz in the starting lineup regardless, simply because his contact skills and eye at the plate will allow him to be far more passable at the plate even if not quite as explosive.

Defensive Chops
Based on scouting reports coming into the year, if someone had suggested Oliver Dunn was a better defender than Joey Ortiz at third base, you’d have been laughed out of the room. Dunn has been exceptional in this regard, though, with a cannon of an arm reaching up to 90 mph this season and using his elite speed to showcase above-average range. Dunn’s arm has also been very accurate and reliable, something which may have let Ortiz down so far. Dunn has three defensive runs saved at third base in the equivalent of just 13 games, which would be on pace for a platinum glove winner at the end of the season.

On the other hand, Joey Ortiz has some of the quickest hands you’ll see in major league baseball, and he uses these to get his throws off quickly enough that he doesn’t need to fire the ball to first base. His arm strength grades may look low, but the quick release is why, and he’s more than capable of handling the left-hand side of the infield. He has good range but has been slightly slow with his first step, and the fielding metrics are not so kind to him early, with -2 defensive runs saved and -1.4 UZR. Both of these are lower than the number he demonstrated last season, similar to the work with Adames, whose first step has greatly improved with the Brewers.

Time in the field will likely even these out and showcase Ortiz as the plus defender he really is. That being said, it’s hard to argue with results, and Dunn has been exceptional defensively to start the season. I’d imagine there is work going on behind the scenes with Joey Ortiz, and it may be why we’ve seen some late-inning substitutions for him defensively.

So What Should Murphy Do Next?
All in all, as things stand, Ortiz looks like a more consistent, MLB-ready bat with sneaky pop and elite bat-to-ball skills, whereas Dunn is slightly out of his depth at the plate so far at this level. Of the two, it’s also possible to argue that Dunn has a higher ceiling with the bat. At the same time, the same is true in reverse defensively as Ortiz, with a little bit of polishing, has all the capability to be a premium shortstop.

All being equal, it’s clear that Ortiz is more ready at this level right now and should be seeing the majority of the playing time at third base. Even considering matchups, while they may have helped Ortiz in some ways, they haven't helped Oliver Dunn at all, and Ortiz’s contact skills and eye at the plate are far more beneficial even if the situation isn’t quite as perfect for him.

What do you think of the Ortiz v Dunn dilemma? Does it require an adjustment in management from Murphy, or could Dunn break out in a big way?

View full article

[igor67]

That miss rate chart for Dunn though is so bad, in particular because he has obvious holes high the zone, low in the zone, outside and inside. Which means every pitcher has at least 1 really good place to attack him regardless of the arsenal of pitches they have.

[GasserFace]

The Brewers are doing an amazing job of winning while developing players at the MLB level. To do this, it seems like they are trying to put each of Ortiz, Dunn, Chourio and Turang in the best spots as possible.

Some of that development appears to take the form of rest and confidence management. As we have seen and heard over the past few years, it takes 50+ players to successfully make it through a season. 
 

The sample size so far is way too small to bail on any of these players yet. Each of them are adjusting to MLB for the first time and it is the entire coaching and management staff’s responsibility to be patient and put them in situations designed for their success. My prediction is that Ortiz, Dunn and Turang will be main cogs of this infield for at least this season and to do that on a division/ pennant contender is truly remarkable.