Buying a Pitcher is Expensive... How About Renting?

[Spencer Michaelis]

The Brewers are dealing with an inordinate number of injuries, as well as an ace who’s not quite performing up to the expectations laid upon him. They have continued piecing it together internally, but could an external addition be the next step?

Image courtesy of © Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

Jake McKibbin covered some of the players whom the Brewers could pursue (and who would be under control for multiple seasons) here, but what are the team's options in terms of shorter-term fixes? Let’s take a look at the different tiers of possible rental options, and throw out some potential offers to get the job done for each of them. 

The Big Fish
This tier contains the bigger names: the starters who are having good seasons, and the ones who will likely be in the highest demand at the deadline. 

Luis Severino - Mets
If you have been following the Mets this season, you know that Severino looks less likely to be dealt at the current moment than he did even one week prior. The Mets have been red-hot, and are now only two games under .500 after winning nine of their last 11. 

For this article, we are going to assume that they cool off a bit and decide to sell at the deadline. If they do, Luis Severino will be in high demand around the league. While his strikeout numbers are not where they once were, Severino is having a really strong season for the Mets. He made some changes to his repertoire this past offseason, and they are paying off to the tune of a 3.52 ERA.

The biggest change that Severino made was to his fastball usage. Formerly employing primarily a four-seamer and a cutter, he introduced the sinker in 2022 but only used it at a 1% clip; he only upped that to 2.8% in 2023. In 2024, he is throwing it 23.7% of the time. This has lowered his fastball usage from what was 45% in 2023 to 36.7% in 2024.

His groundball rate has risen 43.3% to 52.9% this year, and that has helped him tremendously. The sinker is a solid pitch, though it’s nothing special. What it has really done is allowed his four-seamer to play up a bit more than it had recently. With hitters seeing it less often, the expected slugging percentage on it has plunged, from .587 to .341 in the past year. 

The other major change he made was adding a sweeper, instead of strictly throwing a more traditional slider. The sweeper has 14.3 inches of horizontal movement, whereas the slider has 7.3 inches of it. Separating those two has not only helped the slider perform better, but the sweeper is arguably his best pitch this year. It has generated a 36.5% whiff rate and hitters are only slugging .167 against it.

Severino won’t be cheap, by any means, but he also shouldn’t cost you any “top of the board” prospects.

The Offer: RHP Bradley Blalock, INF Juan Baez and C Matthew Wood for Severino

Jack Flaherty - Tigers
The Tigers are currently six games back of a Wild Card spot, and appear to be on their way to being sellers at the deadline. Much like Severino, Flaherty is in the midst of a really strong season, after signing a one-year, “prove-it” deal with Detroit this offseason.

In fact, Flaherty is having an even better season than Severino, currently sporting a 3.01 ERA with a strikeout to walk ratio of 9.1 for the season. He's actually underperforming on the surface, when compared to his FIP of 2.63 and his xERA of 2.68. 

Flaherty has mostly been a three-pitch pitcher this year, throwing his four-seam fastball 44.8% of the time, his slider 31.1% of the time, and his knuckle curve 18.6% of the time. He'll also mix in a rare changeup or sinker, but both have usage rates under 4%.

In terms of four-seam fastballs, Flaherty’s whiff rate of 27.1% is well above average. His whiff rates of 41.3% and 41.7% on the slider and knuckle-curve are elite. That slider whiff rate places him ninth in baseball among qualified pitchers, and the knuckle-curve whiff rate is fourth among all curveballs. As you can see below, despite a lot of his fastballs being in the hitting zone, the life of the pitch and the threat of the two breakers has allowed him to be on the attack with the fastball. Worrying less about pinpoint control has helped him cut down the walks.

Flaherty will probably cost quite a bit to acquire. He will have numerous suitors, and an argument could very easily be made against making the below trade, but this is probably close to what it would cost to make the move.

The Offer: OF Luis Lara, RHP Tyler Woessner and INF Filippo Di Turi for Flaherty

Nathan Eovaldi - Rangers
The Rangers don’t seem like a team that should be selling at the deadline, but at the time this article is being written, they’re five games out of the Wild Card and 7.5 back in their division.

Eovaldi has a vesting option for 2025 that has a chance to hit. He needs to get to 156 innings pitched this season for the option to vest. He currently sits at 60, so if he remains healthy, he would have an outside chance. For the purpose of this article, however, we will assume that the pick-up would be in a rental capacity for the Brewers.

Back in 2018, there were some rumors connecting the Brewers and Eovaldi, but nothing very substantial. Eventually, he was traded to the Red Sox instead, and he ended up pitching really well down the stretch, helping the Red Sox win the World Series.

If he’s available, he’s another high ceiling possibility for the Brewers. Currently posting an ERA of 3.14 and a FIP of 3.67, Eovaldi would slot into the top two pitchers in the rotation upon arrival. 

His four-seam fastball sits in the mid-90s and generates an impressive number of ground balls. Half the balls in play against it are grounders, which ranks in the 96th percentile for four-seam fastballs. The shape is more in line with a two-seamer, it gets a lot of run on the pitch and has more sink than ride. Because of this, it actually plays better at the bottom of the zone than at the top, though he has been able to generate grounders with it in all quadrants of the zone.

His best secondary is an upper-80s splitter that he throws nearly a third of the time, generating a 40% whiff rate against it (per TruMedia), as well as a 61% ground-ball rate. He also throws an upper-70s curveball (15% of the time) that gets whiffs at a strong 35% rate, while really limiting the hard contact against it more than any other pitch he throws.

The rest of his repertoire consists of a cutter and a slider. The cutter is used about 10% of the time and sits in the low 90s. The slider is only used once in a while, and it has not performed well when he does break it out. Eovaldi has a deep repertoire, strong results and the potential to possibly be around for a year and a half if he surpasses his innings threshold this year. He won’t be cheap. Because they likely plan to compete next year, the Rangers may consider players who could help them in MLB right away, as well.

The Offer: RHP Bradley Blalock, INF Juan Baez and RHP Elvis Peguero + a PTBNL or Cash depending on if the option vests or not

Mid-Tier Rentals
These are pitchers who aren’t quite having the seasons of Severino, Flaherty and Eovaldi, but who would still be considered upgrades over the available starters the Brewers currently have.

Yusei Kikuchi - Blue Jays
Kikuchi could probably have a case made for him to be placed in the “Big Fish” tier. He has the upside to be one of the better pitchers in this article.

At one point considered a pretty big disappointment after signing with the Mariners, he had a pretty decent final season in Seattle and was able to turn that into a three-year deal with the Blue Jays. This is the final year of that deal, and the Blue Jays are six games back in the Wild Card race right now, making him a potential mover, and one who would likely generate quite a bit of interest throughout the league.

At this time sporting a 3.65 ERA, Kikuchi ranks in the 63rd percentile in whiff rate, which doesn’t stand out as anything special, but if you dig in a bit further, he has done it in a very interesting way. His four-seam fastball gets whiffs at a 26.3% rate, which (per TruMedia) ranks in the 76th percentile for pitchers who have thrown at least 100 fastballs in 2024. His changeup whiff rate of 35.8% is in the 72nd percentile.

The pitches that have tanked the overall whiff rate are his breaking balls. His curveball only ranks in the 22nd percentile at 25.5%, and his slider is in the 21st percentile at 25.9%. Breaking balls tend to be big swing-and-miss pitches, but for Kikuchi, they act a bit differently.

For Kikuchi, his breaking balls generate a lot of grounders. His slider gets grounders at a 54.3% rate, which places him in the 85th percentile in baseball. The curveball generates them at a 47.8% clip, and that places him in the 69th percentile in that regard. 

It’s a bit of a different profile, but Kikuchi has two pitches that he can get a lot of swing-and-miss with, and two that get a lot of grounders, but fewer swings and misses. The changeup does however do a really good job of both of those things, with a 60% ground ball rate. If the Brewers were to acquire Kikuchi, they might have him use the changeup more often than he currently does.

The Offer: RHP Jesus Rivero, LHP Russell Smith and INF Daniel Guilarte for Kikuchi

Andrew Heaney - Rangers
Another Rangers arm, Heaney is not having as strong a season as Eovaldi, nor should he cost as much to acquire. Of the names listed so far, Heaney’s 4.21 ERA would rank the lowest. He would, however, still be a solid addition to the Brewers rotation. 

Heaney throws from a pretty low slot, which helps him throw his fastball at a -4.14 degree Vertical Approach Angle (VAA). This really helps the pitch play up in the zone. When he throws to the upper third of the zone, his whiff rate on the four seam is 28.8%. When he throws it in the zone, in the middle or lower thirds, it only has an 11% whiff rate. The good news is that he’s well aware of this, and does a good job keeping the pitch at, or above the top of the zone for the most part.

Heaney’s slider generates whiffs at a very strong 36.7% and is often the secondary pitch he goes to when he is looking for a strikeout. His changeup is one that he locates really well, consistently putting it low and away to righty hitters. It’s more of a weak contact pitch than a pitch that he uses to try to get hitters to swing and miss. He used to throw a curveball as his main secondary, but he has only thrown it 3% of the time this year.

The upside isn’t as high as some of the other names on this list, but Heaney could be a definite rotation solidifier for a team that could use some stability in that role.

The Offer: 3B Oliver Dunn and RHP Yerlin Rodriguez for Heaney

Inning Eaters
These are the arms that wouldn’t thrill anyone, but can be expected to help get through the season by being available and willing/able to give you 5-6 innings pretty much every outing and could play above their abilities with the Brewers defensive unit playing behind them.

Jose Quintana - Mets
Quintana would certainly fall under the “less exciting” umbrella, compared to the names above, but he could fit well into the Brewers run prevention system. He does come with a similar caveat to Luis Severino, which is that we don’t know if the Mets will actually be selling or not.

It has not been a strong season for Quintana, but he does a decent job of staying in the strike zone, and has been average or better in walk rate every year of his career outside of 2019 and 2021. He will throw strikes, and he gets ground balls at a 46% clip, which puts him in the 65th percentile this season.

This wouldn’t be an exciting pick up, but it would give the Brewers an experienced arm who could sufficiently eat innings for the team.

The Offer: OF Carlos D. Rodriguez for Quintana

Ross Stripling - A’s
A similar option to Quintana, but this time on a team that definitely will not be competing this year, Stripling could be a good fit for the Brewers as well

Like quintana, Stripling usually does a good job limiting walks. This year he ranks in the 90th percentile, walking only 4.8% of hitters he faces. He also has done a good job of limiting barrels. With only a 4.4% barrel rate against him. He does this by generating an above average amount of chases. Those chases lead to a lot of soft contact, though he does not miss many bats, even when they do go fishing outside of the zone. 

Much like Quintana, you would be buying Stripling with the idea that his ERA is inflated due to some bad luck, and due to having a much worse defense behind him in Oakland than the one he would have in Milwaukee. As well as for the inning eating factor.

The Offer: UTIL Noah Campbell for Stripling

Wrap-Up
Most Brewers fans are expecting a starter to be added, and for good reason. As much fun as a Garrett Crochet would be, those types of moves are not often in the Brewers plans. It seems more likely that they will go the route of filling the rotation with a steady presence by picking up a rental or two.

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Do any of these names stand out to you? What do you think of the offers laid out for these players? Too much? Not enough? Let us know!

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[Michael Trzinski]

Nice piece, Spencer! We will see Heaney and Eovaldi this week against Texas and maybe get a better look at them.

[SF70]

Kikuchi & Eovaldi for me.

Need a lefty and Kikuchi has the most upside. Eovaldi’s game rises once in the playoffs and would be a perfect game 1 starter.

Tolerable returns. 

Eovaldi-Peralta-Kikuchi-Myers-Rea-Wilson or Ross as starter #6, with the other to the bullpen should get the team into the postseason with the first 3 the playoff starters giving the team an opportunity to advance.

Not sure Texas would make Eovaldi available but with Max back and deGrom potentially ready post-deadline, maybe?

[Spencer Michaelis]

The Keuchel addition is interesting, in that I think it makes it less likely they go after one of the Quintana/Stripling types, though if Keuchel doesn’t work out at all, they still might. But I could see him performing similar to those two, and without giving up anything but cash, hard to complain.