Don’t Expect The Brewers To Trade For An Ace Starter Before The Trade Deadline

[Bashopolis]

The weakest link on this Brewers team is obviously the starting pitching. But will the Brewers go out at the trade deadline and make a big splash by adding a front-of-the-rotation starter? Probably not.

Image courtesy of © Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

The Brewers may be active at this trade deadline, but they likely will not trade top prospects for an ace pitcher. Instead, they will rely on the starting pitching depth that they already have. Due to the expanded postseason format and parity in the leagues, there are too few sellers and too many buyers at the trade deadline. And a deadline trade for that starting pitcher isn’t enough of a difference-maker for this team.

The Brewers still have starting pitching depth: Injured starters DL Hall and Joe Ross are expected back before the trade deadline. Jakob Junis has just returned. When added to stable rotation pieces (Freddy Peralta, Colin Rea, Bryse Wilson, and Tobias Myers), that makes for a fairly deep stable of arms. Add in minor league shuttle starters Aaron Ashby and Carlos Rodriguez, and this rotation can be eight or nine deep by the middle of July. None of these pitchers likely provide top-of-the-rotation results, but the Brewers will be able to improve their overall starting pitcher’s production by picking the best of the lot and controlling how deep they go into games.  

Considering this, the prospect cost for a top-of-the-rotation starter will be higher than the Brewers will want to give up. The Brewers tend to refrain from trading off top-tier prospects at the deadline. In 2023, when facing a greater need for hitting than this year’s need for pitching, the Brewers worked around the margins and acquired a couple of rental players who became free agents at the end of the year, in Carlos Santana and Mark Canha. This is more likely where you will see the Brewers working again this year. 

The Brewers won’t trade six years of Jeferson Quero, Jacob Misirowski, or Tyler Black for a rental, and the market for controllable talent heavily favors the sellers at the trade deadline. The wide-open Wild Card races limit the number of teams selling. Teams who are selling controllable talent can ask for a premium. The Brewers tend to feel they can get better value trading during the offseason. 

Finally, before trading prospects, the Brewers must consider what they buy. They have a stable lead over mediocre competition in the Central division. Do the Brewers need a top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher to win the division? That may depend on whether any other Central team makes important additions at the deadline – which is unlikely. Do they need this pitcher to make the playoffs? Probably not. With all the Wild Card slots and a weak Central division, the Brewers' likelihood of making the playoffs is currently 85.9%, per FanGraphs, which doesn't project or account for any trades.

If not needed for the regular season, would the Brewers go for a big trade for an ace to make a difference in the playoffs? "Many bites at the apple" is still the organization’s philosophy; they are just careful not to be caught using the phrase. The Brewers' goal is to make the playoffs each year. Adding one ace pitcher will not necessarily make this team a favorite in a playoff series against the Phillies, Braves, or Dodgers. The organization probably hopes a better World Series contention window will be open from 2025 through 2028, rather than focusing all their attention and resources on 2024. Selling their future to improve their chances of getting out of the first round of the playoffs this year is not a Brewers-type move.

They might be wrong about all of that, of course. It's important that the organization not get overconfident, or take this very promising season for granted. The list of in-house starters above is long, but undistinguished, and it's very important that Matt Arnold and company make calls and find out exactly what all the available upgrades would cost. In saying that they won't be the most likely suitor for big-name arms, we have to be careful to say that they still should be, or at least that they should be actively interested. It's good not to mortgage the future. It would be very bad to sit and wait for the future to arrive, rather than taking concrete steps to seize and shape it. 

It likely isn’t necessary to add an ace to stay in playoff contention this year. And this team is not so special that they will sacrifice the future just for a better chance to make it out of the first round of the playoffs. The Brewers will make some deadline moves, but it is doubtful they will step out of character and land a top-tier starting pitcher.

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[Jim French Stepstool]

I think you're most likely correct. I DO think they're open to the idea of trading Black, but if we're talking about one of the top 2-3 starters out there he isn't a headliner.

[Ro Mueller]

I'm hoping we'll "go for it" in Willy Adames' final season with the club.

[LouisEly]

Depends on who you consider to be a "front of the rotation" starter. 

I think there is one possibility:

Max Scherzer

If the Rangers sell (they are currently 7 wins behind the last wild card spot) and if the Rangers will kick in some cash, Scherzer could be exactly what they need - a "front of the rotation" starter who, because of how much his salary is, won't command much return in prospect capital.  He's also not signed beyond this season, which isn't the Brewers typical M.O., but that's also why the Brewers could target him - they're not on the hook for a big salary next year.  All he would really cost the Brewers is some cash, which could be made up with a deep playoff run.

Front-of-the-rotation talent, won't have to give up a lot of prospect capital, not on the hook for a big salary in 2025 sounds like exactly what the Brewers might be looking for.