How Nick Mears's Pitch Mix and Profile Bring Something Different to Brewers Bullpen

[Jake McKibbin]

Nick Mears may just be the option the Brewers need, with an electric fastball and some underrated breaking stuff. Some stats may give pause, but here’s why you should be excited about the Brewers' latest pickup.

Image courtesy of © Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

On Saturday evening, the Brewers traded for relief pitcher Nick Mears from the Colorado Rockies, giving up Yujanyer Herrera and Bradley Blalock. Mears has a 5.56 ERA this season, which doesn’t jump off the page, but it does initially appear that he’s been burned to some extent by his defense, given his 2.70 FIP and impressive 28.1% strikeout rate. The Brewers pen struggled earlier in the year with getting that swing-and-miss element, but with Devin Williams's return, Joel Payamps finding some form and then Trevor Megill, the Brewers may have four elite strikeout merchants that they can deploy in situations such as the one Elvis Peguero struggled with on Saturday night to escape a jam.

Some may be slightly perturbed by Mears being more effective in Colorado than he has been on the road, given Denver's friendliness to hitters. However, the biggest issue with playing at elevation isn’t always the elevation itself, so much as having to adjust with such frequency to how your pitches function at different elevations. He’s struggled more with walks while on the road, which lends some credence to this, but he's still kept up the gaudy strikeout numbers and he's given up just two home runs all year. He won't be back at Coors Field this season, so being able to have that consistency with how the pitches move should be beneficial to his command.

What Makes Him Different?
I’ll have to credit Matthew Trueblood for the observation that Mears's stuff has a very different profile from a lot of the Brewers relievers, who favor horizontal movement with their sweepers and two-seamers from lowish arm slots. With a fastball like his, Mears can still generate significant swing-and-miss, with the added advantage of that more downward action on his breaking pitches being conducive to ground balls and getting underneath the bat.

Given the slider and curveball are slightly different speeds but have similar movement profiles, he may consider ditching one of them, and I’d advocate that it be the curveball, due to how much better he commands the slider (slider on the left, curveball on the right):

The slider has better quality-of-contact metrics, in large part because of a tendency to hang the curveball more than he would like. When you narrow down more in terms of sequencing, when used after the four-seamer, the slider has been massively more effective. He hasn’t given up a single hard-hit ball this season on the slider, compared with a 17.6% barrel rate for the curveball. He’s thrown the curve a lot more in these situations, but it is something you may look to change.

The Fastball Is Electric
Mears real strength is his fastball, which has the type of movement you dream of in a late-inning reliever, and it really plays up when away from Coors Field. On the road this year, it averages 19” of induced vertical break (an elite number that creates an appearance of the pitch rising while it defies gravity) from a highish release slot. The real damage he does comes from his velocity and above-average extension, releasing the ball close to home plate in a way that makes it seem as though he’s throwing almost 98 mph on average.

When located in the upper third of the zone (and away from Coors Field), Mears induces a whiff rate of 31.3% on the heater, again an elite number, and his slider can really play well off of that. It’s a blink-and-you-’ll-miss-it offering that’s incredibly effective, not just because of the swing and miss but based on how well it avoids barrels.

A Word of Caution
There are two factors that may hinder Mears with the Brewers. His four-seam fastball has been barreled up at almost double the rate away from Coors Field, despite the improved metrics on the pitch. This is where the consistency in the air/lack of elevation can hopefully make a big turnaround for him in terms of results, but a 24.2% barrel rate just will not play at this level.

Then there are the walks. A late-inning reliever will give up runs every now and then, but they cannot afford to be walking people with regularity. Mears has walked hitters more than you would like, but there is a hope that, again, he can be more effective with a more consistent playing field. He overall has avoided barrels well enough to project he can be effective with an above-average walk rate, but it still needs to improve from where it is now, at a 10.3% walk rate.

So How Shrewd Is This Pickup?
Nick Mears has the kind of arm talent that’s reminiscent of Megill, with an elite fastball and quality breaking pitches that the Crew's pitching lab can get more out of than even his peripherals are suggesting. Yujanyer Herrera was a talented arm to give up, but the Brewers have a lot of such arms in the lower levels of the minors; they can afford to trade from a position of organizational depth. Given Mears has such a different look compared to everyone else (save Megill), and the best bullpens should have a variety of pitch shapes and angles, it may be a big boost if they use him well. They’ll need more from Mears than just looking pretty on paper, but the Brewers front office are excited about this pickup and the boost he can give them through 2027.

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[wiguy94]

I have no clue where you're getting a 24% barrel rate on his FB on the road from. He has a 3.2% barrel rate on the road with his fastball. It's his breaking balls that have been getting barreled on the road.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfGT=R|&hfPR=&hfZ=&hfStadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2024|&hfSit=&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&hfOpponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfMo=&hfTeam=&home_road=Road&hfRO=&position=&hfInfield=&hfOutfield=&hfInn=&hfBBT=&hfFlag=&pitchers_lookup[]=683232&metric_1=&group_by=pitch-type&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&min_pas=0&sort_col=pitches&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc&chk_stats_barrels_per_bbe_percent=on#results

[Matthew Trueblood]

14 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

I have no clue where you're getting a 24% barrel rate on his FB on the road from. He has a 3.2% barrel rate on the road with his fastball. It's his breaking balls that have been getting barreled on the road.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfGT=R|&hfPR=&hfZ=&hfStadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2024|&hfSit=&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&hfOpponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfMo=&hfTeam=&home_road=Road&hfRO=&position=&hfInfield=&hfOutfield=&hfInn=&hfBBT=&hfFlag=&pitchers_lookup[]=683232&metric_1=&group_by=pitch-type&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&min_pas=0&sort_col=pitches&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc&chk_stats_barrels_per_bbe_percent=on#results

Guess is you're looking at a per-pitch or per-swing barrel rate; the one we used here is reported per batted ball. I'm not a huge user of barrel rate, personally, for just this kind of reason, but Jake wouldn't lie to you or let you down. :D 

[wiguy94]

Just now, Matthew Trueblood said:

Guess is you're looking at a per-pitch or per-swing barrel rate; the one we used here is reported per batted ball. I'm not a huge user of barrel rate, personally, for just this kind of reason, but Jake wouldn't lie to you or let you down. :D 

 

1 minute ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

Guess is you're looking at a per-pitch or per-swing barrel rate; the one we used here is reported per batted ball. I'm not a huge user of barrel rate, personally, for just this kind of reason, but Jake wouldn't lie to you or let you down. :D 

Nope. What I linked was per batted ball event. He has 31 batted ball events against his FB on the road. I’m not sure where you’re getting 8 barreled balls in these 31 batted balls. Unless you’re using some incredibly wonky definition of a barrel that 25.8% number is way off

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=FF|&hfAB=&hfGT=R|&hfPR=&hfZ=&hfStadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2024|&hfSit=&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&hfOpponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfMo=&hfTeam=&home_road=Road&hfRO=&position=&hfInfield=&hfOutfield=&hfInn=&hfBBT=&hfFlag=&pitchers_lookup[]=683232&metric_1=&group_by=name-event&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&min_pas=0&sort_col=pitches&player_event_sort=api_h_launch_speed&sort_order=desc&chk_event_release_speed=on&chk_event_launch_speed=on&chk_event_launch_angle=on#results

[Jake McKibbin]

3 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

Guess is you're looking at a per-pitch or per-swing barrel rate; the one we used here is reported per batted ball. I'm not a huge user of barrel rate, personally, for just this kind of reason, but Jake wouldn't lie to you or let you down. :D 

Thanks Matt, just went to screenshot it myself!

Didn't realize the differential was quite so vast and may use other indicators to back it up in future, but the sweet spot rates per batted ball being 45.2% as well is a fairly strong indicator it hasn't entirely worked out for him in terms of movement and my point essentially is that I'm hoping he doesn't turn out like a Nate Pearson/Matt Bush type with the stuff on paper that doesn't quite translate to in game success

[Jake McKibbin]

3 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

 

Nope. What I linked was per batted ball event. He has 31 batted ball events against his FB on the road. I’m not sure where you’re getting 8 barreled balls in these 31 batted balls. Unless you’re using some incredibly wonky definition of a barrel that 25.8% number is way off

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=FF|&hfAB=&hfGT=R|&hfPR=&hfZ=&hfStadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2024|&hfSit=&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&hfOpponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfMo=&hfTeam=&home_road=Road&hfRO=&position=&hfInfield=&hfOutfield=&hfInn=&hfBBT=&hfFlag=&pitchers_lookup[]=683232&metric_1=&group_by=name-event&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&min_pas=0&sort_col=pitches&player_event_sort=api_h_launch_speed&sort_order=desc&chk_event_release_speed=on&chk_event_launch_speed=on&chk_event_launch_angle=on#results

There's clearly some difference in how they're measured but it's not a wonky definition at all with a ton of variables.

I think savant maybe tapers barrels more within a high exit velo, in the a 10 degree LA can be a barrel if you hit it 120 mph whereas Trumedia includes all hard hit balls with the sweet spot launch angle but either way I'm happy enough saying that the barrel rate presented by Trumedia gives me some cause for concern and it's a justifiable opinion. Being hit 95+ with optimal launch angles is never ideal.

I can't say for sure that's the difference as I'm currently on my phone and out in town, but Trumedia is a very good source of statistical information used by a lot of baseball writers so I'm happy to back it's relevance here

[wiguy94]

6 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

Thanks Matt, just went to screenshot it myself!

Didn't realize the differential was quite so vast and may use other indicators to back it up in future, but the sweet spot rates per batted ball being 45.2% as well is a fairly strong indicator it hasn't entirely worked out for him in terms of movement and my point essentially is that I'm hoping he doesn't turn out like a Nate Pearson/Matt Bush type with the stuff on paper that doesn't quite translate to in game success

His FB has been much better on the road than at home. Better xwOBA, better run value, better whiff and CSW rates. It’s his breaking balls that have been crushed on the road. On the road his breaking balls have a 12% lower whiff rate, 131 point higher xwOBA, and 6.4 RV/100 worse than at home. That’s been the issue on the road.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=FF|&hfAB=&hfGT=R|&hfPR=&hfZ=&hfStadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2024|&hfSit=&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&hfOpponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfMo=&hfTeam=&home_road=Road&hfRO=&position=&hfInfield=&hfOutfield=&hfInn=&hfBBT=&hfFlag=&pitchers_lookup[]=683232&metric_1=&group_by=name&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&min_pas=0&sort_col=pitches&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc&chk_stats_xba=on&chk_stats_xslg=on&chk_stats_xwoba=on&chk_stats_pitcher_run_value_per_100=on#results

[wiguy94]

12 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

There's clearly some difference in how they're measured but it's not a wonky definition at all with a ton of variables.

I think savant maybe tapers barrels more within a high exit velo, in the a 10 degree LA can be a barrel if you hit it 120 mph whereas Trumedia includes all hard hit balls with the sweet spot launch angle but either way I'm happy enough saying that the barrel rate presented by Trumedia gives me some cause for concern and it's a justifiable opinion. Being hit 95+ with optimal launch angles is never ideal.

I can't say for sure that's the difference as I'm currently on my phone and out in town, but Trumedia is a very good source of statistical information used by a lot of baseball writers so I'm happy to back it's relevance here

Yeah I’m just not going to take something serious that considers 97 EV with 30 LA a barrel or something that considers 100 EV with 12 LA a barrel.

[Jake McKibbin]

8 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Yeah I’m just not going to take seriously something that considers 97 EV with 30 LA a barrel.

I can see both sides here, it's not likely to do damage to all fields but also Isaac Paredes is making a living out of pulling balls down the line for HR's at that launch angle.

So it's still absolutely relevant for me and a useful statistic

 

[wiguy94]

2 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

I can see both sides here, it's not likely to do damage to all fields but also Isaac Paredes is making a living out of pulling balls down the line for HR's at that launch angle.

So it's still absolutely relevant for me and a useful statistic

Isaac Paredes is an anomaly, so citing him is just a reach

Mears FB on the road - .296 xwOBA, .262 wOBA, 24.2% whiff rate, 19 IVB, 1.7 RV/100

Mears FB at home - .312 xwOBA, .309 wOBA, 14.5% whiff rate, 16 IVB, 0.6 RV/100

Meanwhile here is the gap in his breaking balls

Mears breaking balls on the road - .428 wOBA, .309 xwOBA, 34.8% whiff rate, -5.6 RV/100

Mears breaking balls at home - .249 wOBA, .178 xwOBA, 46.3% whiff rate, 0.8 RV/100

Just seems like focusing on the FB as the issue on the road was a miscalculation. 

[wiguy94]

10 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

I can see both sides here, it's not likely to do damage to all fields but also Isaac Paredes is making a living out of pulling balls down the line for HR's at that launch angle.

So it's still absolutely relevant for me and a useful statistic

By TruMedia's definition of a barrel, Trevor Megill's FB has a 23.7% barrel rate against and his FB has a 42.1% sweet spot rate against. Genuinely asking should we be concerned about Trevor Megill's FB?

[Jake McKibbin]

16 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Isaac Paredes is an anomaly, so citing him is just a reach

Mears FB on the road - .296 xwOBA, .262 wOBA, 24.2% whiff rate, 19 IVB, 1.7 RV/100

Mears FB at home - .312 xwOBA, .309 wOBA, 14.5% whiff rate, 16 IVB, 0.6 RV/100

Meanwhile here is the gap in his breaking balls

Mears breaking balls on the road - .428 wOBA, .309 xwOBA, 34.8% whiff rate, -5.6 RV/100

Mears breaking balls at home - .249 wOBA, .178 xwOBA, 46.3% whiff rate, 0.8 RV/100

Just seems like focusing on the FB as the issue on the road was a miscalculation. 

I did talk about the breaking stuff as well not just on the road Vs at home but overall and in particular the curve.

I think the fastball has some issues that I hope don't flare up but it is worth keeping an eye on. I think it's great but we also know Matt Bush had some nice FB metrics but got hammered a bit.

I'd also say over the last couple of months to the eye test Megill hasn't looked as solid and there have been a lot of deep fly balls that put a lump in your throat.

I think Mears will be good and I do think there's a tweak in the breaking pitches he uses but does being elevated at 95+ regularly enough give something to watch, I think so.

Anyway happy to leave it there!

[Matthew Trueblood]

42 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

There's clearly some difference in how they're measured but it's not a wonky definition at all with a ton of variables.

I think savant maybe tapers barrels more within a high exit velo, in the a 10 degree LA can be a barrel if you hit it 120 mph whereas Trumedia includes all hard hit balls with the sweet spot launch angle but either way I'm happy enough saying that the barrel rate presented by Trumedia gives me some cause for concern and it's a justifiable opinion. Being hit 95+ with optimal launch angles is never ideal.

I can't say for sure that's the difference as I'm currently on my phone and out in town, but Trumedia is a very good source of statistical information used by a lot of baseball writers so I'm happy to back it's relevance here

 

20 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Isaac Paredes is an anomaly, so citing him is just a reach

Mears FB on the road - .296 xwOBA, .262 wOBA, 24.2% whiff rate, 19 IVB, 1.7 RV/100

Mears FB at home - .312 xwOBA, .309 wOBA, 14.5% whiff rate, 16 IVB, 0.6 RV/100

Meanwhile here is the gap in his breaking balls

Mears breaking balls on the road - .428 wOBA, .309 xwOBA, 34.8% whiff rate, -5.6 RV/100

Mears breaking balls at home - .249 wOBA, .178 xwOBA, 46.3% whiff rate, 0.8 RV/100

Just seems like focusing on the FB as the issue on the road was a miscalculation. 

Savant's Barrel definition sucks. I always forget they do it that way; it's reverse-engineered based on results. The TruMedia one is just Batted Ball at 5+, LA 10 < x < 35. Much better, imo. Cleaner, more intuitive, more predictive.

[wiguy94]

1 minute ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

Savant's Barrel definition sucks. I always forget they do it that way; it's reverse-engineered based on results. The TruMedia one is just Batted Ball at 5+, LA 10 < x < 35. Much better, imo. Cleaner, more intuitive, more predictive.

I think it's dramatically better than TruMedia's barrel definition. A barrel to me is damage and XBH. 100 EV, 10 LA is a good batted ball that will be a hit almost every time, but it's also going to be a single a large majority of those hits. That's not very damaging. Anything between 95-100 EV and 30-35 LA is going to be a flyout for like 50-75% of the OF. Including such a huge variety of batted balls under 1 net doesn't seem predictive of anything. There's very little wOBA difference between 90-100 EV at 12 LA, but only half of those balls get considered barrels? Where's the logic in that?