Positional prospects review 2021-2024

[biedergb]

The concern has been that while the Brewers have produced some good in-house pitchers who developed from prospect to solid starter or reliever (Woodruff, Burnes, Peralta, D. Williams, and even Hader spend a couple of seasons in our minors), they have not done well with hitters (since the Braun/Fielder and up to the Lucroy years). And the optimistic view is that this will change. But will it? Has there really been a steady stream of good hitting prospects in the minors that just haven't had success, OR have there been players with one good season or potential that were maybe overvalued?  I don't know if this will answer this question completely (ask me in 2-3 years) but I tried to evaluate this.

In summary, in reviewing the Brewers minor league hitters from the last few seasons, the current crop of hitters this year (and last season) appear to be better overall than we've had in previous years.

I reviewed the top hitters based upon WRC+ from 2021 through 2024 seasons, I didn't include 2020 because of the pandemic and did not factor in the seasons prior to that for this review but could do so later. I looked at WRC+ (per fan graphs) and also looked at key peripherals (like K rate, BABIP, ISO).

I also focused on age, and while thiis was not designed to be a perfect cut off, I used the following ages for whether one is considered young, average or old for a given league based upon the following ages:

·         DSL – 18 years or younger (an argument could be made that this should be 17)

·         ACL – 19 years or younger

·         A – 20 years or younger

·         A+ - 21 years or younger

·         AA - 22 years or younger

·         AAA - 23 years or younger

Part of this was to make it simpler with the data analysis. The other part is these would be appropriate ages for a hitter in that league. I also went with the highest level that the player had that season to give them the benefit of the doubt of moving up the chain. Also, for simplifying I went with the statistics for their entire season, so that a hot start at one level would not count as much unless they had sustained success at the next level. For example, like Tayden Hall this year who had such a hot start in Carolina but has struggled in Wisconsin.

In summary the number of players with a WRC+ of greater than 100 has increased. But more importantly those greater than 133 (arbitrary cutoff) have gone up, and most importantly is the players with good offensive numbers were more likely to be younger relative to the league that they were in in recent years.

 

In 2021 there were a total of 22 players greater than 100 WRC+, with 12 of them greater than 120, and 4 greater than 133. Of those four, only one was young for their level and three were average age for their level.

In 2022 there were a total of 19 players greater than 100, of which 5 were greater than 120, and 3 greater than 133.

In 2023 a total of 20 players greater than 100, 7 greater than 120, and 6 greater than 133 (with three of them being considered young)

This year it's a total of 29 players greater than 100, 15 greater than 120, and 8 greater than 133. Of the 15 players with a WRC+ greater than 120, 8 of them are deemed young for their level. And of the 8 who are > 133, six of them are young for their level (all 4 of the DSL “studs”)

 

On a closer dive, looking year by year.

In 2021 the top four were Wiemer (22-year-old) at A and A+, but he had a K rate of 22%, and was older/average age for his levels. The next was McGee who is also 22 years old add A/A+, but with a 30% K rate. Felix Valerio was the only young one is a 20-year-old at A+. And overall, he had good peripherals so appears to be the most likely to succeed. Jesus Chirino rounded out the top four. Jackson Chourio was #6 with A WRC+ of 131. After that there were a mix of guys at various levels (J. Gray 21 yo at A/A+,  Thomas Dillard, Zavier Warren, Korry Howell, David Fry). Valerio looked the part but that was really his only really good year. Most of those players did not sustain their production outside of the one year. Dillard was the exception. And Fry was traded the following year.

In 2022 while the overall numbers were lower there was a small improvement in the caliber of some of the players. The top three were Peters (22 yo at A+), Frelick (22 and went from A+ to AA to AAA) and Chourio (18 yo a A/A+ and ended in AA). Then Guilarte and D. Miller.  Then several older players such as Singleton, Reyes, but a few younger players such as Quero, Turang, Nadal and Barrios. But Turang who had his best season in 2022 in the minors only had a WRC+ of 108 with a BABIP of .342, and his K rate was just under 20% so not awesome but it was his high-water mark in the minors.

In 2023 we saw higher overall offensive marks with guys like Black, Adams, Clark, Avina and Y. Rodriguez (who along with Nadal and DiTuri had great seasons in the DSL). Clarke and Avina had K rates of 29%. But the best part was we had multiple players who were on the list for consecutive seasons such as Chourio (who was still incredibly young for his level), Areinamo, and Quero to name a few.

This year in 2024 the list is dominated by the DSL kids (Pena, Made, Ortuno, Anderson). And really the only overage prospects in the top 15 are Hicklen and Martinez. There are several repeat players like Y. Rodriguez, Black, DiTuri, Adams. But that list also includes recent draftees Boeve, Wilken and Pratt.

 

What all this means and hopefully suggests is that prior to the past couple years there were not a lot of legitimate offensive position player prospects in the system. But that number has grown over the past few years with underlying peripherals to suggest that these players may be able to have success as they move up. The most recent “crop” of graduates headlined by Mitchell, Wiemer, Frelick, Black, Turang and Chourio, only had one good season (for most of them) with some concerns (high key rate or low ISO). Chourio and Black were really the only exceptions of this group of positional prospects. Now a group of Adams, Areinamo, Pratt, Rodriguez along with Black, Wilken, DiTuri have the age, lower K rate, reasonable BABIP, and either good ISO or excellent speed that could translate into future success. Quero obviously missed the season but was on the list the prior two seasons. And while the DSL players are very hard to predict, the fact that we have four with such a great season (so far) that even if only one or two of them become solid prospects that will bode well for the system.

So, while there's clearly some recency bias, it does appear as though the past two years have had more players with sustained success, young or age appropriate for their level, and with better peripherals (walk rate, K rate, BABIP, ISO) to suggest that they may have future success. Or at least that's what I'm hoping to convince myself. But a guy like Chourio it was on this list for multiple years and had good overall peripherals is making me believe that there's something to the statistical analysis.

[Stealofhome]

Really interesting work, thanks for doing this!

[sveumrules]

Nice dive. Overall I think the system is pretty flush with young positional talent across all the levels…

MLB: Contreras, Chourio, Mitchell, Turang, Perkins. Frelick, Ortiz (obviously not all drafted but part of having a strong farm and developing good MLB players is you can trade them or just identify an overlooked guy like Perkins and get him for free)

AA/AAA: Black, Quero, Wilken, Boeve

A/A+: Adams, Pratt, Yophery, Areinamo, Baez, Lara

Rook: Bitonti, Adamczewski, Made, Peña, Anderson, Ortuno

And even after that there’s still a bunch of intriguing guys like O’Rae and Fillipo who have been aggressively promoted, EBJ who has struggled and dealt with injury. Hicklen and Carlos Rodriguez and EMJ who have been hitting at the upper levels, Payne and Burke from the most recent draft.

[biedergb]

5 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Nice dive. Overall I think the system is pretty flush with young positional talent across all the levels…

There has been a lot of grumblings (mostly because of the slump the team has been in), that there has not been much success in hitters. Agree Contreras (trade), and MItchell/Frelick are decent hitters so far. Ortiz and Turang started hot and faded, so hard to know with them. But Chourio so far looks like he is for real given the way he has come on recently. So with the funk of Turang and Ortiz, and the ok hitting of Frelick (good BA but no power) and Mitchell (SSS since his restart), there isn't a lot of faith that there will be true help on the way.

But right now I agree we have a good group of positional players who should be able to hit at all levels, however, I was trying to convince myself I guess that the lack of hitters (until now) was maybe a predictable thing and that this year is hopefully a hint of what is to come. I want to look back in 3-4 years and see a lineup of mostly homegrown hitters who have good stats.

This season seems to make that more likely, and it's hard for me to be optimistic in public, as I fear jinxing these things, so you can now blame me if all goes south. 

[sveumrules]

2 hours ago, biedergb said:

There has been a lot of grumblings (mostly because of the slump the team has been in), that there has not been much success in hitters.

Here is the MLB team leaderboard this year for position players in their age 26 or younger season.

Brewers are at 2,200 PA (4th) | 9.0 BB% (5th) | 20.1 K% (8th) | 0.44 BB/K (3rd) | .262 AVG (6th) | .121 ISO (30th) | +8.1 BsR (4th) | +13.7 DEF (4th) | 10.6 WAR (3rd)

That’s a bunch of fast, plus defending, good plate discipline having, base hit getting youngsters providing a whole lot of value for a first place team .

Only thing missing is power production, but that’s got nowhere to go but up.

[SF70]

The farm system currently has 2 waves of positionals.

Wilken-Boeve-Quero, who should be joined by Burke, who I think will be a fast mover. This 4, if not traded, should hit MKE sometime late ‘25 thru ‘26. That group should add power to a lineup devoid of it.

2026 should be the beginning of a positional powerhouse in MKE with 3-4 yrs of control yet with the current group having mostly developed by then.

The second wave (2027-2029) should have the most impact of all from among Pratt-YRod-Bitonti-Made-Pena-Anderson & future draftee’s,