Can Isaac Collins Steal a Brewers Roster Spot Come October?

[Matthew Trueblood]

With a bit more in the way of tactical skills and a slightly greater chance to make a meaningful impact, one late-blooming out-of-nowhere Brewers rookie might supplant another when it's time to make out a playoff roster.

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

 

A ninth-round college draftee by the Rockies in 2019, Isaac Collins spent half a decade fighting his way to the big leagues. The Brewers got him in the minor-league phase of the 2022 Rule 5 Draft, which is a highly inauspicious way to change teams. Hardly anyone goes on from being taken in the minor-league phase of the Rule 5 to become a meaningful contributor in the majors, and Collins, 27, won't necessarily be the exception to prove that rule.

However, there's more dynamism to the diminutive switch-hitter than one might expect. He can play second base, third base, center or left field. He's fast, and in his very first swing in the big leagues, he showed the raw bat speed to supply a modicum of power. That trait, in particular, sets him apart from the other smallish players who occupy the same positions he can play on the Brewers roster right now.

Collins didn't just swing out of his shoes upon first tasting big-league action, either. On the season, between Triple-A and the majors, he has a 39.1% hard-hit rate and a 103.8-MPH 90th-percentile exit velocity. Taking each of the last two seasons as separate data points, none of Brice Turang, Sal Frelick, or Andruw Monasterio can match him in either metric, and the closest anyone comes is Monasterio this year--with a 38,5% hard-hit rate but just a 102.0-MPH 90th-percentile exit velocity.

It seems profoundly unlikely that Collins can usurp Frelick or Turang in any kind of playoff roster arrangement, but all season, the Brewers have made only very limited use of Monasterio. Collins can play the only positions at which they trust him. Collins has more pure speed and has shown the ability to steal bases at Triple A. He also has more offensive upside, especially if a need to pinch-hit for Eric Haase or Joey Ortiz against a righty should arise.

For that matter, come the postseason, a third catcher is an extreme luxury. The Brewers have been able and willing to carry three backstops throughout the second half, with William Contreras taking more turns as the DH and Gary Sánchez surging through the late summer, but the slight tactical flexibility that provides for Pat Murphy might be diminished once the schedule spreads out and the stakes of each at-bat rise. On the flip side, one more speedy bench piece like Collins only gains utility in that change of pace and tenor. 

He'd need to get some meaningful playing time and show well, but in the few remaining games of this season, Collins has a lane within which to try to earn a spot on the playoff roster. Whether that comes at the expense of Monasterio, Haase, or Jake Bauers, it's surprisingly plausible, given that Collins is a career minor-leaguer with so little name recognition for most fans. It's also another testament to the Brewers' scouting and player development groups. He's only a role player, but Collins might be an important contributor in the right mixture this fall.

 

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[Outlander]

He isn't stealing anything, he is on the 26 man roster so it would be an upset for him not to make it on the playoff roster. I don't really want understand why you mention him taking a roster spot from somebody already on the 26 man roster like Haas or Monasterio. They still have a 26 man roster in the playoffs. Unless Oliver Dunn comes out of hibernation I can't even think of another guy that has even a remote shot.

[Matthew Trueblood]

42 minutes ago, Outlander said:

He isn't stealing anything, he is on the 26 man roster so it would be an upset for him not to make it on the playoff roster. I don't really want understand why you mention him taking a roster spot from somebody already on the 26 man roster like Haas or Monasterio. They still have a 26 man roster in the playoffs. Unless Oliver Dunn comes out of hibernation I can't even think of another guy that has even a remote shot.

He's on the *28-man* roster right now; it'll need to be pared down by one hitter and one pitcher come October. And based on tenure, if nothing else, you'd expect it to be Collins who was pruned. But, no doubt, the door is open for him. That was the point of the piece.

[Kripes - Brewers]

I'd sure like to have that power bat potential in the outfield to counter Frelick and Perkins when the matchups dictate. He could also spell Turang who is struggling at the plate to a .219/.287/.343 showing in the last 30 games. I sure hope we get to see more of him in the next few weeks to get him acclimated.

If Isaac can hold his own with the bat, dump Bauers off the playoff roster. In an emergency, Sanchez or Monasterio can fill in, and Haase (who has quietly put together a strong showing) can man it too.

*I'm going off from Joe Zarr's glowing minor league reports reports and AAA numbers for Collins's potential here. I have no idea what Murphy has in mind with respect to Bauers and his clubhouse presence or how much safer Murphy feels having his defense to lean on, but I think we've seen enough of Bauers to know that he's not likely to add much impact to a playoff roster, whereas Collins has upside.

[Ron750]

Billy Beane: ”If he’s such a good hitter, why doesn’t he hit good?
 

He’s hitting .100 in the bigs. Playoffs are not the time to experiment. That's what Spring Training is for.