Will the Streakiness of Their Slap Hitters Thwart Brewers' 2024 World Series Ambitions?

[Jake McKibbin]

This Brewers lineup is designed to go on hot stretches with a handful of streaky bats, but can the supporting acts bring consistency or do they add more streakiness to their 2024 playoff offense?

Image courtesy of © Kelley L Cox-Imagn Images

Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts. Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Christian Walker. Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper. Playoff offenses are buffeted by batted-ball luck, but the best of them have players on whom you can rely to make quality contact over and over again.

The Milwaukee Brewers have bats that have shown flashes of white-hot power throughout this year: Willy Adames, William Contreras, Gary Sánchez, Rhys Hoskins (certainly early in the season), Jackson Chourio and even Garrett Mitchell have shown some serious pop when they hit a hot stretch. We saw in August how damaging this Brewers lineup can be with even two of these bats going haywire, but of the group, you could argue that only Adames and Chourio have shown consistency in their day-to-day offensive production.

You expect home runs to come in bunches, and for there to be dry spells. The problem the Brewers have is that their lower-octane, contact-oriented hitters are equally streaky in how they rely on batted-ball luck. Brice Turang is a prime example, with his early-season form masking a .530 OPS since Jul. 1. Joey Ortiz has had some struggles as well, after a neck injury around midseason, and looks the part of a rookie working out what his plan is at the plate; he owns one of the lowest in-zone swing rates in baseball.

Turang, Ortiz, Sal Frelick and Jake Bauers all have OPSes under .620 since Aug. 1, meaning the offensive output in that month was more despite them than because of them. The lower third of the order hasn’t been contributing for a while, and it means when those streaky bats dip even slightly, runs can become relatively scarce. Of these hitters, only Turang can lay claim to some batted-ball misfortune, with an expected average 42 points better than his actual number.

Earlier in the season, a big reason for the Brewers success was their ability to get speedy players on base and wreak havoc. Turang, Frelick, Blake Perkins and others all caused mayhem and magnified the quality at-bats from the sluggers behind them. Their underpowered bats best profile by avoiding fly balls and keeping the ball either on the ground or on a line. Turang has actually improved in this regard, with a fly ball rate down to 15%, better sweet spot launch angles and similar exit velocities to his first two months. Some better fortune could see Turang be a menace in any series, just as he was in the first month of the season.

From their mix at second base, third base, and center field, there has been a marked decrease in production from the first three months to the latter half of the summer:

They’re getting half as many home runs and a batting average of just .205, from players with such strong bat-to-ball skills. One culprit is regression to the mean, after overperformance in the first half of the season. Throughout the season, each has shown themselves capable of a hot couple of weeks and good OBPs, and for the Brewers to fully function, they will need some bounces to fall their way once more with the contact hitters.

It’s difficult not to think of the difference a healthy Christian Yelich could have made as a consistent producer alongside Chourio, but the Brewers have to manage the cards they’ve been dealt. That means getting the most out of Turang, Ortiz and Frelick. A lineup with multiple consecutive holes can torpedo a playoff lineup, and it could spell another early exit for the Brewers in October. Streakiness is the Brewers' best hope, but thankfully, it's something they've seen from both their more powerful producers and their lesser lights. The question is: Can they find it at just the right time in October?

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What do you think of the production from Ortiz, Turang and Frelick? Has it disappointed you and given some concern for the playoff offense? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!

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[Kripes - Brewers]

I had hoped earlier in the season, that the "slap hitters" would be a welcome change for this team to put runners on the bases for the power hitters to then move around. That hope isn't gone, as the trio of Turang, Ortiz and Frelick still have OBPs above .300. Part of the problem is that those 3 guys are generally at the bottom of the order in most lineups these days, so it takes some quality at bats in between before those power hitters (who are traditionally clumped together in the 3,4,5,6 slots).

It seems like Murph is trying out some different orders, trying to find a regular leadoff guy with some consistency. Chourio and Contreras seem pretty well suited to 2 and 3 in the order. There just isn't enough consistency for Murph to settle in on much, so we'll have to see what he dreams up for any potential wild card series. He'll probably have to go with matchup stats and change a bit every game unless someone (hopefully several!) gets red hot and stakes a claim.

[Jim French Stepstool]

I think their best hope is for Chourio to stay at #2, and if they can get #'s 8,9 & leadoff to reach on a consistent basis (easier said than done, of course) the offense can take off. Turang reaching nine times over the weekend & Ortiz picking up four hits, a walk & appearing to get his RF stroke back are encouraging.

Chourio seems locked into leadoff vs LHP, but then maybe Perkins at #2. Please, not Mitchell.

[Samurai Bucky]

I was fortunate to watch BP on Friday before the game.  I noticed that on Turang's load, his hands come back and his bottom hand goes further back than his top hand.  His back elbow also comes back behind his torso a little to make more of a rotational load as opposed to a rocking or straight back load.  I thought about seeing if I could find some footage from the side of his hands at the beginning of the year, but ended up not doing that since Turang hit well for the weekend.  😉

Frelick is an enigma.  Personally, I don't like it when he puts so much weight on his back foot.  I know why he does it, though -- he needs to get his ball in the air.  It seems he gives up solid contact in an effort to lift the ball.  If he were stronger, he might be able to get away with it more.

Bauers -- he hasn't hit well all year.  Not sure if you could call him a slapper.

[Jim French Stepstool]

18 hours ago, Samurai Bucky said:

I was fortunate to watch BP on Friday before the game.  I noticed that on Turang's load, his hands come back and his bottom hand goes further back than his top hand.  His back elbow also comes back behind his torso a little to make more of a rotational load as opposed to a rocking or straight back load.  I thought about seeing if I could find some footage from the side of his hands at the beginning of the year, but ended up not doing that since Turang hit well for the weekend.  😉

Frelick is an enigma.  Personally, I don't like it when he puts so much weight on his back foot.  I know why he does it, though -- he needs to get his ball in the air.  It seems he gives up solid contact in an effort to lift the ball.  If he were stronger, he might be able to get away with it more.

Bauers -- he hasn't hit well all year.  Not sure if you could call him a slapper.

I think the hand placement for Turang gets a little wonky at times, and since pulling the ball isn't a constant part of what he does you'd think things would be simple enough that he wouldn't get screwed up. I'm just glad he's heating up & hope it continues. Frelick, I just want him to spray the ball & let natural growth & experience kind of take over AFA driving the ball is concerned. He'll never be a power guy but DOES seem to be getting out in front a little bit more. Agree about his back foot.

Bauers just seems to have his (limited) stretches where he picks the ball up well. When that happens he'll put up some lengthy ABs, hit a few HRs & draw some walks. Then it goes away. If only he could bottle it you'd have a .240 hitter with some pop that would be a great PH option when not in the lineup. Sort of a LH Sanchez. As is, you take the defense & I guess just hope for one of the good stretches.