These Two Free-Agent Speedsters Could Add Subtle But Important Value to the Brewers in 2025

[Jason Wang]

With baserunning coach Quintin Berry gone, a veteran voice who has shown an on-field nous for pilfering pillows.

Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Prior to the 2023 season, MLB instituted several rules to make stealing bases easier, in an attempt to make the game more action-packed and appealing to Gen-Z viewers with a TikTok attention span (it's me, I'm the Gen-Z viewer). The league is still far from finding the next Rickey Henderson, but this has allowed players like Shohei Ohtani and Ronald Acuña Jr. to add immense value through their speed and aggressiveness. The Brewers themselves have Brice Turang, who has accumulated 88 stolen bases over the past two years. Given their financial limitations, Milwaukee probably won’t sign a free agent of high-profile batting or defensive value, but there are two options whose ability to capitalize on this re-emphasized aspect of the game may make them hidden gems.

Tommy Pham is a journeyman who has been on seven different teams in the past three years. It’s not really his fault, as he was traded several times and even made it to the World Series with the Diamondbacks in 2023. He’s an 11-year big-league veteran, and despite his offensive and defensive numbers gradually regressing with age, he’s still making the most out of the tools he has left. He isn’t blazingly fast and only stole seven bases in 2024, but when looking at the Lead Distance Gained leaderboards, he’s still pretty good for a 36-year old. Over the past two seasons, Pham gained an average of 14.5 feet on his steal attempts between a pitcher’s start of delivery and his release, getting terrific jumps. 

But what does this really measure? A quick peek at Baseball Savant shows that the leaders in this category predominantly generate below-average stolen base value. This is because, like every statistic in baseball, it only tells one part of the story. For example, Jorge Soler has an even better average Lead Distance Gained over the past two years than Pham (at 18.4 feet), but his Net Bases Gained when it comes to stolen bases is -13 despite never being caught stealing.

The likely story is that these players will only seize the opportunity in the rare event that they get great leads and clear paths to steal. This is often done when the cost of creating an out is low (someone is getting blown out), which gives them a much lower sample size of lead distance data. The best example of this anomalous statistical profile is Elías Díaz, who leads the pack with an outstanding Lead Distance Gained of 40.8 feet. However, a closer look shows that it's the result of one attempt that happened in a dominant win against the White Sox in 2023, so I'm not sure if it really supports the case that he’s the greatest base stealer of our time. 

Unlike Soler and Díaz, Pham is aggressive, attempting steals at a 1.6% clip when he gets a chance. This opens the door to creating outs more frequently but also results in more bases gained, making him a net-positive contributor on the basepaths despite his average speed.

A more refined version of Pham is Whit Merrifield. He had his struggles at the plate and in the infield last year, but he found some success pilfering bags, accumulating 17 of them in total. (Fun fact: he had two more stolen bases than RBIs, a rare feat.) He shares Pham’s penchant for getting a great lead while the pitcher is trying to do his job, also posting a Lead Distance Gained of 14.5 feet, but he is even more aggressive and successful. He attempted stolen bases at a 2.8% rate and has a Net Bases Gained figure of 13, on par with the quick youth of today’s game like Johan Rojas and Zach Neto. 

Both Pham and Merrifield have their fair share of weaknesses, and it wouldn’t make sense to have both of them on a roster as talented as the Brewers’. However, picking one of these free agents to help share the subtle nuances of aggressive baserunning with the young, speedy core could be a meaningful way to upgrade the roster in a non-obvious (and, most importantly, affordable) way. Just think about what Jackson Chourio, Blake Perkins, Garrett Mitchell, and Turang could do if they were given the green light to live out their kleptomaniac desires.

It’s not usually what one might be considering when thinking of free-agent acquisitions, but getting one of these two guys could just be the “steal” of the offseason.

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[Team Canada]

4 hours ago, Jason Wang said:

With baserunning coach Quintin Berry gone, a veteran voice who has shown an on-field nous for pilfering pillows.

This isn't a sentence, did half of the thought get chopped off?

[Samurai Bucky]

Quote

Tommy Pham is a journeyman who has been on seven different teams in the past three years. It’s not really his fault, as he was traded several times and even made it to the World Series with the Diamondbacks in 2023.

Wasn't Tommy Pham the player who wanted to beat the stuffing out of some of the Brewers players?

https://www.mlb.com/news/tommy-pham-thrown-out-at-plate-in-finale-vs-brewers