Great article on Tobias Myers

[mudbutt]

Really great explanation on why Myers was able to have such a great season last year and how his changeup is really the key to his success, despite not being his best pitch.  In a nutshell he has the very traditional mix of a high fastball/low slider that hitters have to account for, but then he brings his changeup into the mix.  If you were just to evaluate his changeup based on break and such, it's an average pitch.  But when you combine it with his fastball, it has elite effectiveness despite having less break compared to other pitcher's change ups due to throwing it HIGH in the zone and mirroring his fastball which is unusual.  Has definitely given me something to think about when you look at pitchers individual pitch grades and stuff metrics, as in Tobias's case why rank his changeup against other pitchers when he is using it in a completely different fashion than the usual arm side hard break out of the bottom of the zone.  So now hitter's really have to account for three scenarios with him and they really struggled to differentiate his fastball from his changeup.  Bodes well I hope for him that last year wasn't a fluke.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-more-it-stays-the-same-the-less-it-changeups/

[treego14]

Mets would not have gotten by us if we stuck with Tobias!

[JRob1125]

I really think the change IS his best pitch. Speed differential and arm angle can make up for lack of movement

[jesusoftheapes]

On 1/30/2025 at 11:48 AM, treego14 said:

Mets would not have gotten by us if we stuck with Tobias!

Tobias said he was done.  He said that he gave 1000% and his last AB was his last of the day and he had no gas left.     I have no issues with where they pulled Tobias that day because it all worked to perfection right up and until it did not and it had everything to do with Devin Williams and the Mets seemingly knowing what pitch he was throwing before it left his hand.    We worked a perfect game through that playoff.  The Mets scored nothing much right up until Williams let Pete play with his fastball.    Tobias will have more meaningful playoff games in the future but he did more than enough for his first one.    The 2024 playoff was a hard pill to swallow.   I still have never been more proud of the Brewers than I was with that team.   We fought like Champions and I believe 2024 opened the door to bigger things.   So many times after playoff loses I felt defeated and without hope for what is to come.  Right now after that game all I feel is that there is unfinished business and that I cannot wait to see this through!    Go Crew ! 

[jesusoftheapes]

21 hours ago, JRob1125 said:

I really think the change IS his best pitch. Speed differential and arm angle can make up for lack of movement

No chance .  He is developing his pitching and his change is a great pitch to add to the mix but I like where his sweeper was landing and his 4 seam is the best pitch of all the pitching on the roster.  the way it carried through on pitches should eventually make Tobias a high strikeout pitcher.   I love all of Tobias Myers pitching tools.   I just cannot ever get on board with a changeup being a best starting pitchers best stuff.   A changeup only works if it has the fastball to play off of and Tobias has a doozy.  

[jesusoftheapes]

On 1/28/2025 at 11:35 AM, mudbutt said:

Really great explanation on why Myers was able to have such a great season last year and how his changeup is really the key to his success, despite not being his best pitch.  In a nutshell he has the very traditional mix of a high fastball/low slider that hitters have to account for, but then he brings his changeup into the mix.  If you were just to evaluate his changeup based on break and such, it's an average pitch.  But when you combine it with his fastball, it has elite effectiveness despite having less break compared to other pitcher's change ups due to throwing it HIGH in the zone and mirroring his fastball which is unusual.  Has definitely given me something to think about when you look at pitchers individual pitch grades and stuff metrics, as in Tobias's case why rank his changeup against other pitchers when he is using it in a completely different fashion than the usual arm side hard break out of the bottom of the zone.  So now hitter's really have to account for three scenarios with him and they really struggled to differentiate his fastball from his changeup.  Bodes well I hope for him that last year wasn't a fluke.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-more-it-stays-the-same-the-less-it-changeups/

I get why you are entertained by this article.  I took the info differently somehow.   I did not see a pitcher who used tricks to win .  I saw a pitcher who figured out that his **** plays in The Bigs for the first time ever and I saw that magic moment where a prospect becomes a weapon at the highest level flip on light a light switch.   He was so dejected after that White Sox outing that sent him down for the final time of 2024.   When he came back he pitched a relief game before quickly becoming the Ace of the Brewers rotation.   After he came back I saw something more than explainable numbers.  I saw that magic moment in sports where the impossible became possible and a player became a fan favorite superstar like a flash.     

The story of Tobias Myers to me personified everything I love about this game. So simplifying it down to the base reasons someone on a laptop thinks are the reasons for Myers success sullies the whole thing for me a little.     Sometimes the reasons are so simple and straight forwards they do not need deep explanations to make sense.   Sometimes a player has something touch them beyond X's and O's and the MAGIC of Baseball happens and that is how I see Tobias and his start to his MLB future.    I get the understanding and the need for it by people to make sense of all that baseball is but sometimes I just like that majesty to stick around a bit longer.  With Tobias everyone was just so worried he would regress and everything we were seeing him do would be for nothing.  So we shut up and tried our best not to talk about it, not to analyse it and not to question it for fear it would shut off and leave us without our new Ace pitcher.    I guess I just wanted to hold onto that as long as possible before people started trying to make reason of it all .    The best part about Myers being fantastic was that he was never supposed to be .     Anyways that is my 2 cents.   Great post through and through though. 

Go Brewers ! 

[Playing Catch]

I'm not sure how to find the data to back up my observation, but I think the key to all of Myers's success is that he pumps fastballs for strikes early in the count.

[jesusoftheapes]

9 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

I'm not sure how to find the data to back up my observation, but I think the key to all of Myers's success is that he pumps fastballs for strikes early in the count.

Agreed. Myers was great at getting ahead of the count on most AB's.