Can Sal Frelick Be More Patient and More Powerful at the Same Time?

[Matthew Trueblood]

The numbers tell us a better version of the Brewers' right fielder is in there, with a change in approach. The question is whether that change is possible, without undue tradeoffs.

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

By now, the profile—and its set of problems—is familiar to you. Sal Frelick is one of the best contact hitters in baseball, and that has formed a strong, high floor for his production over the first 747 plate appearances of his big-league career. He didn't get on base as well in 2024 as he had during a second-half debut in 2023, and he doesn't hit for much power at all, but by constantly putting the ball in play, running well, and providing high-end defense, he has managed to be roughly an average player so far.

Going forward, though, the Brewers will want to see Frelick tap into something more—if, indeed, more is possible. Frelick's swing is compact and shows an extroardinary feel for the ball, but he doesn't hit the ball hard enough or lift it enough to access any meaningful pop. His home run in the Wild Card Series last October was like a bolt of lightning: electrifying, beautiful, and shocking as much for its improbability as for its actual potency. The Brewers would love to see more of a storm brew in Frelick's approach, such that his homers might feel more like reliable, rumbling thunder.

How can he do that? The first way, of course, is to lock in more on getting to the bottom half of the ball, out in front of him. Last year, he only hit his well-struck balls (those with an exit velocity of at least 90 miles per hour) at an average launch angle of 6°.

Those batted balls below a 0° launch represent (mostly) wasted punch. Frelick made some solid contact, but too much of it found the dirt instead of the grass or the far-off plastic and metal on the other sides of fences. It didn't help that his best contact also tended to be to the center of the field; that even makes it difficult to find doubles through low, hard-hit liners. It makes for too many singles, even though singles are certainly better than outs.

When Frelick did hit the ball at more productive launch angles (between, for these purposes, 10 and 45 degrees), he generated an unfortunate dearth of jolt. His average exit velocity on such batted balls was just 83 miles per hour.

Part of that was that most of Frelick's fly balls were balls on which he was slightly beaten, and therefore, they tended to come on slightly late swings. That leads to lots of balls hit to center and left-center fields, where Frelick is never going to find much joy.

To generate more dangerous contact, then, Frelick needs to make slightly earlier swing decisions, get out in front of the ball and tag it in the air more consistently. The question will be whether any effort to do that works against Frelick's plate discipline.

In 2024, Frelick cut his chase rate on pitches outside the zone from 33.1% to 29.6%, according to Baseball Prospectus. His in-zone swing rate was essentially static. He made progress, then, toward better command of the zone, and he continued to be one of the toughest hitters in the game to throw a ball by within the zone. He made contact on 93% of swings at strikes. That's highly valuable, but it's something he can leverage even better. It's all about selective aggressiveness. Frelick already has one of the lowest swing rates in the league, in all counts before two-strike ones, but he needs to take a different tack in some of those situations and swing sooner, more assertively. When he has an idea of what's coming, he needs to gear up to get the bat head out on it.

By contrast, in some deeper counts (especially with two or three balls on him), Frelick needs to commit to taking a pitch. Last year in spring training, I talked to him about his approach, and he acknowledged that he sometimes swings at pitches just because he knows he can touch them. That's not always the right idea. At times, he needs to think about the likelihood that the opposing pitcher is going to successfully throw him a strike, and turn off his mental swing impulse. It might lead to a few more called third strikes, which are always frustrating, but it would also stand an excellent chance of increasing Frelick's too-modest 7.4% walk rate.

Being more dangerous when he has a good plan will make it less likely that pitchers challenge Frelick at other times. While making slightly earlier decisions to get out in front and apply more power and loft to the ball can make it harder to see the ball all the way and lay off those at the edges of the zone, Frelick can do that—get to more of his latent power—without sacrificing his on-base skills, which will always be the centerpiece of his offensive game. In fact, one improvement should reinforce the other. As he prepares for his second full season, Frelick should now have a better idea of how big-league pitchers attack hitters like him. If he can develop a more nuanced, advanced approach, he could take a step forward both in his plate discipline and in his slugging in 2025.

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[mkingcheckmate]

easy said then done