Sal Frelick is Experiencing the Thin Margin for Error of Hitting

[Jack Stern]

Image courtesy of © Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

In the Brewers' first two games without an injured Christian Yelich, Pat Murphy has hit Sal Frelick in the leadoff spot. The change was partially due to a lineup shakeup in Yelich's absence—Brice Turang has moved from leadoff to the 3-hole—but it was also to spark a pressing Frelick's offense. The 25-year-old is hitting just .179/.303/.268 in 67 plate appearances to start the season.

"I think what happens is a kid like him that wants it so badly, he gets going, and he's going to try and make it happen right now," Murphy said. "He doesn't look to have a perspective, in a way, of what's going on. That's why I put him leadoff [Tuesday night]."

Frelick is much closer to last year's form than his results indicate. After overperforming his peripherals in his breakout season, it's been the opposite to begin his follow-up campaign. His expected production is essentially identical, mainly because he's chasing less and drawing more walks to begin 2026.

Season	wRC+	DRC+	wOBA	xwOBA	Chase%	xwOBAcon
2025	114	101	.332	.299	26.3%	.305
2026	71	103	.276	.307	20.9%	.290

His abnormally low batting average on balls in play (.209, down from .308 for his career before this) is destined to improve, especially for a hitter like Frelick, who hits plenty of grounders and line drives and can leg out infield hits with his speed. He did see some luck swing his way on Wednesday night as part of the Brewers' comeback win to snap their six-game losing streak.

In the eighth inning, Frelick bounced a soft ground ball in front of the plate, where it landed on the dampened dirt from heavy rainfall leaking through American Family Field's roof. He reached when Toronto Blue Jays catcher Brandon Valenzuela could not pick up the ball cleanly, ultimately coming around to score the winning run.

"He's had some unlucky things go wrong when he's hitting the ball well," starter Chad Patrick said after the game. "Sometimes the baseball gods give you rewards."

It hasn't all been bad luck, though. Frelick isn't quite himself right now, in a small but meaningful way. His expected wOBA on contact is down 15 points, which means he's hitting fewer balls in ways that typically produce hits. Murphy believes "wanting it so badly" is the cause.

"I think he's the first to try to do too much," Murphy said. "He cares so much. He's so passionate about competing and winning. One of the best I've been around. When it's not going your way, it's hard to be relaxed about it for a kid like him, and he's got to learn to just kind of do a little less, be a little more precise."

The biggest difference has been that the baseball is getting on Frelick quicker than when he's been at his best. He's consistently late on the ball. On average, he's making contact about three inches deeper into his hitting zone (the purple dot in the graphic below) than last year (the white dot).

Because he's late, Frelick is catching more balls as his bat head is still coming down through the zone, producing more ground balls. Compared to last year, his average attack angle (the vertical angle of the bat relative to the ground at point of contact) has decreased from 9° to 5°, and his ground ball rate has increased from 45.4% to 50.1%.

It's not necessarily that Frelick is picking up the ball late, Murphy said, but that his load, which begins with a leg kick, has become exaggerated from trying to do too much. That makes it harder for his swing to be on time.

"Think about it. The bigger the move, the bigger the get-ready, the less time you have," Murphy said. "So you have to usually time that up way earlier, if you're going to have a bigger move or a bigger get-ready. He's got some things he has to work through."

The good news is that, metrically, Frelick's swing path is effectively the same as last year. As is typically the case for most hitters, the wide chasm between success and failure comes down to milliseconds of timing.

"The swings don't change that much," Murphy said. "Even [Joey Ortiz], if he gets straightened out, the swing's going to look similar. It's the decision, and it's the timing of it all—because hitting is so much timing—that's going to change. You'll see that, like, 'Wow, he's on it. Wow, he's on time. Wow, he looks like a different hitter.' But when you break down the swing, it won't be that different. There might be a little angular shift, or there might be a little bit of grip difference. There might be a little bit of freedom in the swing that you don't see."

He moved Frelick to the top of the order in part to bring him back to his roots. A leadoff man's job is not to produce power or drive in runners, but to get on base.

"That little reminder, that's how he works," Murphy said. "When he's batting seventh sometimes, it's kind of, 'Do they want me to get on base?' It's kind of like, what does it call for? For him to know, you have to tell him."

Because his quality of contact did not fully support his results last season, it's probably safer to expect Frelick to be closer to a league-average hitter than the well-above-average bat he was a year ago. Coupled with his speed and defense, that's still a very productive player. Murphy expects him to round into form.

"One of the greatest attributes of this guy is he's a winning player," he said, "and winning players know what's needed."

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