Summer is Over. The Summer of Garrett Mitchell Will Live Forever.

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of Katie Stratman-Imagn Images

For the first time, this season has permitted the conversation around Garrett Mitchell to move beyond and away from his constant injury trouble. Mitchell has suffered two major shoulder injuries on slides into bases, and in between, he's also lost time to a broken finger and an oblique strain. He never seemed to get long enough between trips to the injured list for anyone to properly evaluate whether his extreme offensive profile could work in a full-time role. That made him a constant object of unwelcome debate: Is he good, or is he doomed to be a constant source of frustration?

No longer. As of last week, Mitchell has amassed more plate appearances—the number is now 464—than he had over his first four partial big-league seasons, combined. For some, however, the jury is still out. The consensus among fans was that if Mitchell ever played this much in a single campaign, we'd see him veer either toward stardom or toward doom. Instead, his .770 OPS this year matches his career mark prior to this year (.766) almost perfectly. 

That's because (as we've talked about so many times before) Mitchell has an unusual amount of swing-and-miss in his game, for a good hitter—especially one who also lacks applicable power. Few players on the Brewers have less raw bat speed than Mitchell, but he's one of the least likely hitters in baseball to hit a ball in the air to the pull field. His batted-ball profile is as extreme (and discouraging) as Christian Yelich's. His contact rate is as near-calamitous as pre-2026 Jake Bauers's. Here's what his spray chart for this season looks like, according to Statcast:

To isolate ground balls and liners for a minute, here's his infield slice chart. It looks an awful lot like you can neutralize Mitchell with a good second baseman:

In reality, though, the athletic lefty batter keeps finding hits. He's only managed nine home runs, because he hits so many ground balls and so many of his fly balls the other way, but the sheer volume of hard contact keeps him afloat—despite a strikeout rate that continues to hover around 30%.

As all players do, Mitchell has experienced streaks and slumps this year. Pat Murphy has shielded him from left-handed starting pitchers at times, when the roster has permitted it, and that platoon protection has also kept his workload relatively light for a healthy player with so much two-way value. That might be why he's enjoying the healthiest season of his career, but it seems fairer to guess that he's just getting some overdue good luck in the injury department.

What role Mitchell will fill as the Brewers hurtle down the stretch and plunge into October is still unclear. Murphy has shown no compunction about playing the players he believes will best move the Brewers toward wins, and that might not be Mitchell at times come the postseason. The club's depth in the outfield has improved as the season has progressed, putting a squeeze on Mitchell. For now, though, he's a solidly above-average regular on the best team in baseball. Whatever his quirks and shortcomings, he's proved himself capable of being that caliber of player over a full season—something that seemed almost like a fantasy even at this time last year. This week was a subtle milestone, but it feels like an important one. Mitchell is no longer defined by his failure to stay on the field. He's been out there pretty much all summer, and he's been pretty good.

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[SF70]

Can’t stop dreaming of a Mitchell with a higher launch-angle. 

[igor67]

Combined Minor League and Major League Plate Appearances is still under 1600 total. Prince had over 1900 PAs before getting called up, and Braun was only part way in to his second season with that same number of Plate Appearances. I don't know if Mitchell can radically change who he is at the plate, but it's still not hard to imagine there is a decent chance of a big break out now that he has been able to play for an extended stretch.

[bensheeps]

Sunday's game was another glimpse of what he can be...

1st at bat is a missile line drive at 101.8 mph the other way (unfortunately right at Bregman for an inning ending DP)

2nd at bat is another line drive at 111.0 mph for a rbi single to left-center.

3rd at bat is a lead off walk in the 8th inning that leads to the tieing run.

Line drives going the opposite way hopefully is a sign that he is about to go back on a similar heater that he was on in June (.293 avg, .346 ob, .507 slg) and July (.315 avg, .390 ob, .506 slg).

[JohnBriggs12]

I simply don't understand why a guy with a build like Mitchell can't hit a ton of power.  Does Mitchell play golf?  I bet he can hit a golf ball 320 yards.  That he's so content being a singles and doubles hitter drives me crazy especially when the guy patrolling center field 90 miles south is such a better player almost solely because he hits with enormous power.

I wouldn't care if he struck out more if he hit 25-30 home runs.  You think if Luis Lara would be content slapping balls if he stood 6'2" 225?

Kind of ironic that Tyrone Taylor was dealt away in part to make room for Mitchell, and now Taylor is a much bigger power threat than Mitchell.

Mitchell is never going to earn big a multi year contract producing 10 home runs a year.  He should get ahold of the guy who made PCA into a power hitter.

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, JohnBriggs12 said:

I simply don't understand why a guy with a build like Mitchell can't hit a ton of power. 

Because everyone's body is unique and most players have a natural swing path they are comfortable with? Why does any big, strong guy like Yandy Diaz (125 GB+ | 77 FB+ since 2021), Elly De La Cruz (116 GB+ | 81 FB+), Vlad Junior (114 GB+ | 88 FB+), Josh Bell (114 GB+ | 89 FB+), Nathaniel Lowe (112 GB+ | 83 FB+), etc hit so many balls on the ground?

Mitchell only had 666 PA in the minor leagues, and another 910 PA in MLB. He's still pretty green for a 28 year old with MLB experience in parts of five seasons now. Still plenty of time to try and make adjustments now that he is just getting his first full season under the belt.

Even with all his warts (too many ground balls and strikeouts, too BABIP reliant) and injury issues Garrett is one of 118 players with at least 850 PA in the outfield since 2022, some of his ranks...

865 PA (118th) | 5.7 WAR (52nd)
32.3 K% (114th) | .381 BABIP (1st)
53.0 GB% (5th) | 21.8 LD% (17th)
+6.6 BsR (34th) | 10.4 BB% (24th)
36.4 HardHit% (24th) | .161 ISO (73rd)
113 wRC+ (35th) | +7.6 DEF (27th)

Somewhat interestingly, Tyrone Taylor also has 5.7 WAR playing outfield since 2022. His +10.7 DEF and +7.1 BsR outpace Mitchell slightly, and his 1,482 PA are a full extra season of playing time, so why doesn't he have more WAR then? Because his fly ball heavy approach (42.8 FB% | 27th) has produced a below average .282 BABIP (89th), he rarely walks (5.1 BB% | 110th), and even with all the extra fly balls he barely hit for more power with a .173 ISO (56th). Put it all together and Taylor has a 93 wRC+ (89th) with a .289 OBP (105th).