Brewers Need To Avoid “Terrible Twos” In The Draft

[Harold Hutchison]

With the 2023 MLB Draft less than a month away, let's take some time to think about what the Brewers might do beyond the first round. They need to find talent in subsequent rounds, too. We can ponder how they might best extract value in the second round by considering their history in that round over the last two decades.

Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports

With the 2023 MLB Draft less than a month away, let's take some time to think about what the Brewers might do beyond the first round. They need to find talent in subsequent rounds, too. We can ponder how they might best extract value in the second round by considering their history in that round over the last two decades.

When it comes to the draft, since the year 2000, the Brewers have had some big hits from the first round. Early on, it was Ryan Braun, Rickie Weeks, Jeremy Jeffress, and Prince Fielder. More recently, Keston Hiura helped during the 2019 playoff run, while Brett Lawrie, Matt LaPorta, Jake Odorozzi, Trent Grisham and Mitch Haniger were used to acquire key components for later successful teams, either directly, or through what happened further down the road.

The Brewers have been less lucky in the second round, particularly since 2000. They have had some hits, to be sure: J.J. Hardy, Yovani Gallardo, Jimmy Nelson, Tyrone Taylor, and Devin Williams all have been solid contributors for the team, and some of them even helped acquire additional help down the road. Hardy, Williams and Gallardo all are in the discussion as being among the best to play their positions in Brewers history.

Other second-round picks were traded and helped acquire crucial pieces for success. Monte Harrison, for example, was part of the package for Christian Yelich. Cody Ponce brought the Crew Jordan Lyles, who played a key role in the 2019 run to the playoffs. Jorge Lopez was part of the package that brought Mike Moustakas to Milwaukee for the 2018 stretch run (and, eventually, the 2019 season). Cutter Dykstra was traded to the Nationals for Nyjer Morgan prior to the 2011 season. Morgan was a dynamic player for the Brewers in that run to the NLCS.

However, there have been a lot more misses than big hits in the second round, and those misses have had some high price tags. 2008 second-rounder Seth Lintz got a $900,000 bonus, and never got past Class-A ball. Tucker Neuhaus got $771,000 and never made it past Advanced A. Micah Bello cost $550,000, and also topped out with the Timber Rattlers before he retired. Caden Lemons got a bonus of nearly $1.5 million, and is trying to make a comeback in the Frontier League. Josh Murray and Brent Brewer are also among the second-round picks who didn’t quite work out for the Crew.

Other technical “misses” include third baseman-turned-reliever Lucas Erceg, who looks like a solid bullpen contributor–for the Oakland Athletics, after the Crew dealt him for cash. Catcher Mario Feliciano was waived after four at-bats in the big leagues. Antoine Kelly was traded to the Rangers for Matt Bush, who has been lit up more often than not for the Crew. Erceg could have been a useful asset for the Brewers, Feliciano couldn’t have been much worse as a AAA option than Brian Navaretto, and Kelly might have been a nice left-handed reliever for the Brewers system.

It goes without saying that a small-market team like the Brewers can’t really afford those sorts of misses, particularly at the price they are paying to land second-round picks. Now, some of the more recent picks, like Jacob Misiorowski, Robert Moore, and Freddy Zamora, look promising. Joe Gray Jr. has flashed power and defense in the minors, and Russell Smith is racking up a lot of strikeouts as a Timber Rattler and Shucker.

But going forward, the Brewers have to get more consistent success out of this round, particularly given that they can't afford to make big splashes in free agency to paper over the gaps. It could be the difference between them playing for the title or watching others do so from their homes.

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[BrewerFan]

It's the MLB draft. About half the players never make it to the big leagues.(Edit-Just among 2nd round picks) About half of those who do end up with a negative WAR or a WAR around 1. In a given year there may be a...Joey Votto, JJ Hardy, Dan Haren, but they're few and far between.

Using their history of 2nd round picks over the last 20 years just tells me they've probably done better than average. 

I'd also consider Tyler Black or the competitive balance picks after Rd1 as 2nd round picks. 

 

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It goes without saying that a small-market team like the Brewers can’t really afford those sorts of misses, particularly at the price they are paying to land second-round picks. 

What team DOESN'T have misses like that?

A normal 2nd round might have 2 players with 10+ career WAR, 2-3 more with ~5 or so, half the round never makes it and another and the rest are Blake Perkins type players. Just replacement level players. 

 

You're just throwing darts at a VERY small board. Even in the 1st round, you're projecting years out. The miss rate is enormous.