27 Things That Will Decide the 2026 World Series: 9th Inning

[Matthew Trueblood]

We've made it this far. It would be heartbreaking to stop now. Here are the final three things you should watch carefully for during the World Series, which begins in (hey, we made it!) just a few hours. To read the other 24, go here and work backward.

25. Bryan Baker is Not That Guaranteed Guy Right Now, and Maybe Never Was.
The Rays' closer has been called upon often for the last two years, and it's catching up to him at the worst possible time. His velocity had already dipped from (speaking very broadly) 96-97 MPH in the first half to 95 in the second. Since the start of the postseason, that trend has (ahem) accelerated. He's sat 94 a couple of times, and even dropped to 92-93 during the ALCS.

Baker still got the outs he needed to get to secure the Rays' pennant. In fact, his results have been just fine. He's faced 23 batters, struck out six and allowed only three baserunners. Some have observed that his changeup has also lost some velocity, so the differential between the two offerings is preserved. The fact remains, though: that diminished velocity means a greater likelihood of batters catching up to the heater. It means more danger. That danger just hasn't been realized yet.

Though the surface-level numbers say Baker had a great season, there's another reason to wonder if he's about to hit the blades of the fan: he's been getting (if not luck) a little help, all along. Arguably, no pitcher in the league has gotten better defensive support than Baker this season. His strikeout and walk rates have never quite matched his sparkling ERA and WHIP. Some pitchers can accomplish that by inducing oodles and oodles of grounders or specializing in weak contact. Baker might have some of those skills, but he's not an edge case. He's just played in front of a defense that has had his back all year. With his velocity falling, it feels like a good bet that his luck is about to run out.

26. The Extra Few Outs: Yes, We're Really Talking Antonio Senzatela
I believe this World Series will have to end with Trevor Megill on the mound, rather than Aaron Ashby. Firstly, the Rays' best hitters (including one or two of their lefties) handle lefty sinkers relatively well. Ashby's stuff is an outlier, and he can still be effective in the series, but his role here will be much more limited than against the Dodgers or Padres. That's fine; he's already done more than his share to get the team this far.

Megill and Abner Uribe can and should take on heavier loads, especially if this series stretches to six or seven games. At some point, though, the team will need to get out Yandy Díaz, Jonathan Aranda and Junior Caminero with a righty who isn't a starter, and who isn't Uribe or Megill. You hope you only have to do it once, but to win, you have to do it at least once. We've already talked about a circumstance under which that righty could be Brandon Woodruff, but it's not a likely one. Instead, it should be Antonio Senzatela. The trust that Pat Murphy likes to build with a high-leverage reliever hasn't quite materialized between the skipper and the team's trade-deadline acquisition, but necessity makes strange bedfellows sometimes.

Senzatela's stuff is better than his results with the Brewers have been. If Baker is about to set down some good fortune he's been carrying of late, Senzatela is one of those with the greatest right to scoop it up—which is to say, with a bit better support from the usually-good defense behind him, he'd already be dominating. It might be relatively deep in the series, but unexpected heroics lie ahead for Senzatela.

27. The Mound at The Trop
Freddy Peralta will wait and make his first start of the World Series in Game 3, in front of his adopted home crowd and far from whatever stress the Brewers faithful might inflict on him. In Game 5, Jacob Misiorowski will toe the same slab, and we'll all find out together (for the first time this month) how well an opposing grounds crew has made their mound ready for Misiorowski and his extraordinary delivery, with its long downhill launch.

That's the last thing I want you to watch for, because I think it's the last thing we'll need to check off the list. There might be some early misfires as Misiorowski gets his feet underneath him, but I think he'll find them. I also think that mound will be the one off which Megill launches himself, a couple hours later, firing the last pitch of the MLB season. It would be neater—nicer—if the Brewers could win their first-ever World Series at Uecker Field, in the center of 46,000 Wisconsinites, screaming and exalting—if the ghosts of the last half-century and more could waft right past the words "Get Up, Get Up, Get Outta Here, Gone!" as they left for good. Maybe that's how it'll go. But I don't think so. I think that mound at The Trop in St. Petersburg, once tamed by Misiorowski and fallen down by Megill, will become the mountaintop on which the Brewers celebrate unreservedly. I've got the Brewers in five. The Rays are a very good team, and it could swing the other way. These 27 things could break their way instead. The mound could remain untamable. Baker could remain improbably impermeable. Lots of things could go wrong. It's baseball. But the 2026 Brewers just might be inevitable.

Image courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

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[Team Canada]

23 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

I've got the Brewers in five. The Rays are a very good team, and it could swing the other way... Lots of things could go wrong. It's baseball. But the 2026 Brewers just might be inevitable.

Ditto.

24 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

25. Bryan Baker is Not That Guaranteed Guy Right Now, and Maybe Never Was.

Also: The ERA of the rest of the bullpen is over 4. Even if Baker is excellent, they could be seriously exposed if the Brewers do Brewers things to pitch counts.