Brewers Extend Jake Bauers Qualifying Offer, Will Get 1st-Round Pick If He Signs Elsewhere

[Matthew Trueblood]

This time, there wasn't even a dilemma. There was no agonizing over whether the Brewers should trade Jake Bauers or hold onto him. There was no discourse about whether they could be considered a serious organization if they simply traded away all their great players every time they approached free agency. Just a handful of months ago, no one thought Bauers was that caliber of player. The same controversies that swirled around Corbin Burnes, Willy Adames, Devin Williams and Freddy Peralta heading into their final seasons of team control were absent with Bauers, because no one expected him to fetch a significant amount via trade, and no one was worried about the Brewers losing him for nothing.

Now, even if Bauers has played his last game in a Brewers uniform, the team will get something good for him. They extended Bauers the one-year, $23.15-million qualifying offer Monday afternoon, ahead of the 4 PM CT deadline to do so at the official start of MLB free agency. Bauers will probably reject that offer and sign a multi-year deal this winter, and if (as we should expect) he signs it with some other team and earns north of $50 million in total, the Brewers will receive a pick after the end of the first round in the 2027 MLB Draft. Being a small-market, revenue-sharing-receiving team comes in handy this time of year, because the Brewers stand to receive a better pick than a richer team would if Bauers departs.

Every year, the team's challenge is to find controllable talent that can make them better for multiple seasons. They get some help from the rules, in that (in addition to better compensation when top free agents leave) the Crew gets a competitive-balance draft pick after either the first or the second round every year. To make the most of those advantages, though, they also try to find opportunities to trade players nearing free agency for prospects who can be valuable for half a decade or more. The downside of letting a player reach free agency and leave, even if they leave behind a high pick via the QO, is that often, that player came with a high acquisition cost and/or used up a substantial share of the payroll in their final season before doing so. 

None of that is true in Bauers's case. This is almost free value for the Brewers, who neither gave up much to acquire Bauers nor paid him handsomely (by big-league standards) during his tenure with the club. They should get a good prospect for him if he goes to a wealthier team this winter, making Matt Arnold's job easier as he tries to keep Milwaukee's perpetual winning machine in motion.

Image courtesy of Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

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[long ball]

I find it mildly interesting that most people who cover this team expect Bauers to decline the QO while many who cover the league more broadly either predicted he would not receive the QO or will accept the QO. 

[Frisbee Slider]

I think Bauers likes Milwaukee enough to stay for one more season. That probably is naive of me. Does his agent get a cut if the qualifying offer is accepted? 🙂

[Matthew Trueblood]

8 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

I think Bauers likes Milwaukee enough to stay for one more season. That probably is naive of me. Does his agent get a cut if the qualifying offer is accepted? 🙂

Agent fees are the same no matter what type of guaranteed deal you sign..

I think Bauers showed how much he loves Milwaukee and the organization throughout October, but he's not going to pass up his only realistic shot at a long-term payday. If the Brewers like him as much as he likes them, they can re-sign him on a multi-year deal.

[PBTank]

IMO, this was the only way to go.  Having Bauers on a one year $23M+ contract is practical.  I wouldn't want to see them invest more than 2 years into him.  Possibly, a 2 year deal with a third club option could be hammered out.  The Brewers have three players getting near the major league club that will fill his role (Fischer, Burke, Bitonti).  If he leaves and receives a nice pay day, good for him.  Glad to see it.  The Brewers get the pick.  Plus, I believe their competitive balance pick will be a first round one also.

[sveumrules]

2 hours ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

but he's not going to pass up his only realistic shot at a long-term payday.

Between having the QO attached, only one good year, and the CBA uncertainty, Bauers has plenty limiting his market this year.

Accept the QO, have another good year, and he’d be better positioned for a long term payday with a two year track record, no QO hanging over his head, and the labor situation sorted so teams know what parameters they’re working with.

[Matthew Trueblood]

41 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Between having the QO attached, only one good year, and the CBA uncertainty, Bauers has plenty limiting his market this year.

Accept the QO, have another good year, and he’d be better positioned for a long term payday with a two year track record, no QO hanging over his head, and the labor situation sorted so teams know what parameters they’re working with.

I hear you. We'll see. Put it this way: If it goes that way, I'll count you VERY right and me VERY wrong. 

[Michael Trzinski]

16 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

I think Bauers likes Milwaukee enough to stay for one more season. That probably is naive of me. Does his agent get a cut if the qualifying offer is accepted? 🙂

To me, this is a 'prove it' moment. By that I mean Bauers accepts the QO of $23m and plays at least one more year in Milwaukee, chasing another WS title with the 'Brewers Family.' The 'long-term' deal that I saw was 3 years, $50M.

So that means if he plays for the Brewers in 2027-28, give him two years for $27M and he has his long-term deal...