2024 Prospect Previews: Josh Knoth

The Brewers had the 33rd pick in the 2023 draft, courtesy of the Collective Bargaining Agreement. They were awarded a Competitive Balance Round A pick, right at the end of the first round. They took Josh Knoth, a cold-weather prep pitcher with helium going into the draft, who was committed to Ole Miss. Knoth was ranked as the 45th-best prospect in the class by the consensus board, and signed significantly under slot, at $2 million.

Scouting and Signing
Knoth was second in a series of four Brewers picks that saved significant money against their slot value (Brock Wilken, Mike Boeve, and Jason Woodward being the others). The Brewers were thus able to draft and sign Eric Bitonti and Cooper Pratt for approximately $1 million apiece over the slot allotments for them. While this note is tangential to Knoth specifically, it illustrates the Brewers' creativity with their bonus pool. They operated with a level of flexibility that allowed them to hone in on high-upside prospects and select impact talents later in the draft, with Knoth a key cog in that machine.

Knoth went to the same high school as Marcus Stroman. While both are undersized right-handed pitchers, that’s where the similarities end. Knoth was one of the youngest prospects in the draft, only turning 18 in August. On the mound, he’s a fluid athlete, with a compact, repeatable delivery. Knoth has a live arm that was on full display in his final prep season, in which he boasted a 19-strikeout perfect game. 

Knoth’s offerings are a fastball that underwent a velocity jump in his senior year. It sits 93-95 mph, but can grab a few ticks more, although it doesn’t have any outstanding attributes yet. Knoth’s calling card is a plus curveball, which was one of the best in the entire draft class. He regularly spins it north of 3,000 rpm and can throw it for strikes consistently. Knoth’s exceptional talent for spinning the baseball and small stature have earned him comps to Lance McCullers. Knoth also features an emerging, fringy changeup that will get better the more he throws it, and at least average control.

2023 Performance and 2024 Expectations
Much like Charlee Soto with the Twins (among many prep arms taken), Knoth did not debut in 2023 and can be expected to make his professional debut in 2024. Many of the same principles can be applied across prep pitching prospects who are drafted in the early rounds. Expect them to be used conservatively and flexibly, with an emphasis on meeting developmental goals and milestones over competition and in-game outcomes.

Knoth was one of two arms whose stock rocketed up the consensus board as the pre-draft process went on (along with Joe Whitman, who was the first collegiate southpaw taken). Quick risers inherently carry some risk, and orgs tend to get fewer in-person looks at cold-weather arms. The Brewers' track record of pitching development increases confidence in what Knoth will be able to do. He has all the ingredients to be a middle-of-the-rotation arm.

How did you feel about the Josh Knoth pick? What are your expectations for Knoth in 2024?

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