2024 Prospect Previews: Josh Knoth

[Jamie Cameron]

With the 33rd selection in the 2023 draft, the Brewers selected Josh Knoth, an undersized, cold-weather prep arm with a real talent for spinning the baseball. What should Brewers fans expect in 2024?

The Brewers had the 33rd pick in the 2023 draft, courtesy of the Collective Bargaining Agreement. They were awarded a Competitive Balance Round A pick, right at the end of the first round. They took Josh Knoth, a cold-weather prep pitcher with helium going into the draft, who was committed to Ole Miss. Knoth was ranked as the 45th-best prospect in the class by the consensus board, and signed significantly under slot, at $2 million.

Scouting and Signing
Knoth was second in a series of four Brewers picks that saved significant money against their slot value (Brock Wilken, Mike Boeve, and Jason Woodward being the others). The Brewers were thus able to draft and sign Eric Bitonti and Cooper Pratt for approximately $1 million apiece over the slot allotments for them. While this note is tangential to Knoth specifically, it illustrates the Brewers' creativity with their bonus pool. They operated with a level of flexibility that allowed them to hone in on high-upside prospects and select impact talents later in the draft, with Knoth a key cog in that machine.

Knoth went to the same high school as Marcus Stroman. While both are undersized right-handed pitchers, that’s where the similarities end. Knoth was one of the youngest prospects in the draft, only turning 18 in August. On the mound, he’s a fluid athlete, with a compact, repeatable delivery. Knoth has a live arm that was on full display in his final prep season, in which he boasted a 19-strikeout perfect game. 

Knoth’s offerings are a fastball that underwent a velocity jump in his senior year. It sits 93-95 mph, but can grab a few ticks more, although it doesn’t have any outstanding attributes yet. Knoth’s calling card is a plus curveball, which was one of the best in the entire draft class. He regularly spins it north of 3,000 rpm and can throw it for strikes consistently. Knoth’s exceptional talent for spinning the baseball and small stature have earned him comps to Lance McCullers. Knoth also features an emerging, fringy changeup that will get better the more he throws it, and at least average control.

2023 Performance and 2024 Expectations
Much like Charlee Soto with the Twins (among many prep arms taken), Knoth did not debut in 2023 and can be expected to make his professional debut in 2024. Many of the same principles can be applied across prep pitching prospects who are drafted in the early rounds. Expect them to be used conservatively and flexibly, with an emphasis on meeting developmental goals and milestones over competition and in-game outcomes.

Knoth was one of two arms whose stock rocketed up the consensus board as the pre-draft process went on (along with Joe Whitman, who was the first collegiate southpaw taken). Quick risers inherently carry some risk, and orgs tend to get fewer in-person looks at cold-weather arms. The Brewers' track record of pitching development increases confidence in what Knoth will be able to do. He has all the ingredients to be a middle-of-the-rotation arm.

How did you feel about the Josh Knoth pick? What are your expectations for Knoth in 2024?

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[Fear The Chorizo]

assuming good health, I think Knoth is going to fly up prospect lists in the next 18 months, and if his fastball sits in the mid 90s with further physical development he's got a higher ceiling than a mid-rotation starter.

2024 will be a "patience" type season of development with Knoth, with 2025 being the season where he might be jumping through multiple minor league levels.

[Jamie Cameron]

2 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

assuming good health, I think Knoth is going to fly up prospect lists in the next 18 months, and if his fastball sits in the mid 90s with further physical development he's got a higher ceiling than a mid-rotation starter.

2024 will be a "patience" type season of development with Knoth, with 2025 being the season where he might be jumping through multiple minor league levels.

Exactly how I see it, too.

[nate82]

This would probably get more traction in the minor league forum where I think this should have gone? @Brock Beauchamp

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, nate82 said:

This would probably get more traction in the minor league forum where I think this should have gone? @Brock Beauchamp

Thanks for the catch, moving categories.

[jay87shot]

Does he start in A ball or get say a month to train 1st and debut in late May-Early-June? 

He doesn't until the end of the season so we don't have to rush him but it would be nice to get 70-80 innings this year.

[sveumrules]

50 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

Does he start in A ball or get say a month to train 1st and debut in late May-Early-June? 

He doesn't until the end of the season so we don't have to rush him but it would be nice to get 70-80 innings this year.

Looks like ACL play started June 5th last year, I would guess the Brewers hold him back from game action until then.

That essentially gives him three months or so to get accustomed to pro ball in a more controlled environment with a chance to get his feet wet for a couple starts at Carolina to finish the season if all goes well.

Starting him straight away in A ball would probably be a little aggressive given his cold weather background and age - doesn’t turn 19 until August.

Yujanyer Herrera was the youngest pitcher at Carolina last year and he was a full year older than Knoth will be in 2024.

[Jake McKibbin]

A prospect I'm incredibly excited for, that strong feel for spin with the amount of command he possesses currently is a fascinating combination, even more so if he can develop some movement characteristics on his fastball. Thanks for the piece!

[biedergb]

While the pitching depths have been a little depleted, and restocking started the past 1-2 years. They do have some waves of pitching prospects, with three high end prospects near the top (Misio, CRod, Gasser), and then some arms in the A level that are a mix of non drafted players and international signees. Then in the draft a few College/JuCo arms, and some high schoolers.

I see Knoth and Letson (HS picks) going very slow. Build up arm strength, and get the consistency etc worked on.

Then see if the others (Woodward, Birchard) can move up quickly, and probably restock some arms in this years draft again.