Brewers Video
You won’t find Ernesto Martinez Jr. on top prospect lists. You might not even find him in organizational top-30 lists. He’s kind of old (turns 26 in June). He doesn't have a ton of positional defensive value (solely first base, except for 10 games in center field, since 2021). He’s also putting up metrics at Triple-A Nashville that warrant a full, Exorcist-style 360° turning of heads.
Martinez has been in the Brewers organization since signing as an international free agent out of Cuba in 2017. To say it’s been a slow burn is underselling it. It took him a full six seasons to get regular playing time even at Double A, finally accruing a full season there in 2024. It was worth the wait. He put up a .284/.365/.466 line there, with 13 home runs and an approach underpinned by solid plate discipline and swing decisions.
In This is Spinal Tap, guitarist Nigel Tufnel touts an amp that goes up to 11.
"Well it’s one louder, isn’t it?" answers Tufnel, bemused at being asked a question of the difference between his amplifier and a standard model. To borrow parlance from the movie, in 2025, Martinez has turned it up to 11.
Martinez is putting up top-of-the-scale power numbers, currently. He carried a 111-mph 90th-percentile exit velocity into game action on April 15th. That’s Aaron Judge territory. His average exit velocity of 97.5 mph would also be tippy-top of the scale in the big leagues, along with Judge and Shohei Ohtani. Insert your Star Wars prequel meme here; There’s some bat-to-ball skill issues right? RIGHT?
Wrong. Through the first few weeks of Triple-A play, Martinez is running an overall contact rate of 77% (very good), with a preposterous 90% contact rate within the zone. That is a unicorn combination of outstanding contact with elite quality of contact. If there’s an Achilles heel, it might be passivity. Martinez' overall swing rate is down significantly. Additionally, he doesn't swing much in zone (around 15th percentile). One wonders if his outstanding bat-to-ball metrics will be eroded at the major league level by pitchers challenging him more in the strike zone.
It’s hard to know exactly what to make of these numbers, in terms of both stickiness and general interpretation. After all, how often does a career organizational prospect go from essentially off the radar to producing numbers that would place him among the elite in MLB in a particular category, even over the course of a year and a half? I don’t know if I can think of a good example. It's also worth noting that when Martinez became a minor-league free agent (briefly) this fall, no team rushed in to offer him a big-league deal, or even a split contract. That would have been quite a gamble, even after his very strong second half last year in Biloxi, but the Brewers signed Blake Perkins to such a deal a few years ago. They do happen. They didn't materialize for Martinez; that's why he's still in the organization.
Nevertheless, there’s enough of a track record of minor-league success (even without the accompanying recognition) that he warrants week-to-week scrutiny from anyone who enjoys prospecting. If Martinez keeps it turned up to 11, he’s going to find his way to Milwaukee in the not-too-distant future.
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