Brewers Video
With spring training underway, it is time to take a look at some of the Brewers’ prospects who might not be getting top-30 love right now, but seem poised to improve their stock this year.
As in past years, I’m dividing both the hitters and pitchers into tiers, with Tier 1 being guys who are either familiar names, close to the majors or close to the top-30 lists and Tier 3 generally being reserved for guys really off the radar.
So let’s see if we can’t predict some of the minor-league players from each tier to pop this season.
Hitters
Tier 1: Hedbert Perez
There are several interesting options for this spot (see Spencer Michaelis and Joseph Zarr’s minor-league podcast series if you want to get excited about Marco Dinges), but I’m going with a bounceback candidate.
Perez’s prospect arc is pretty well-known. While Luis Medina got the bigger bonus and the higher spot on the rankings, Perez seemed to be the guy most prospect watchers liked most from the Brewers’ 2019 international free-agent signing class (now pretty much known as the Quero class). The hype only built when he spent some time at the Brewers’ alternate site during the COVID season and then proceeded to put up big numbers in Arizona in 2021. However, the red flags during his time in Arizona (higher K rate, lower walk rate) helped lead him to plateau in A ball. Late in 2023, though, it seemed he was finally turning a corner.
Then he got hurt.
Perez missed most of 2024, and was pretty mediocre in high-A upon his return. He fared far better, though, in 88 plate appearances in the Venezuelan Winter League, against players mostly much older than him, including big-leaguers and former big-leaguers (Junior Guerra led the league in wins). I think the ship might have sailed on the potential star power hitter we hoped for during his first couple of seasons in the system. I just can’t see the on-base skills developing to that extent. I could, however, see him becoming a power-centric fourth outfield type. And, as the saying goes, that’s not nothing.
Tier 2: Pedro Ibarguen
It was really tempting to go with Handelfry Encarnacion here, but this list is going to have enough 2024 DSLers as it is (once again, see the minor-league podcast series for more on Encarnacion).
Instead, let’s turn to a second rebound candidate, one whose performance nose-dived in 2024 perhaps even more than Eric Brown Jr.
It is easy to forget now that Yophery Rodriguez wasn’t the best DSL performer among the 2023 international free agent signing class. That honor fell to Pedro Ibarguen. Rodriguez was still seen as a better prospect (and his peripherals were better), but Ibarguen put up a really good year.
And then 2024 happened.
Ibarguen went from one of the best hitters in the DSL to one of the worst hitters in the ACL. He had fewer total extra-base hits in Arizona (2) than he had home runs in the DSL (3). It was, well, not good, to the point where it raised legitimate questions about whether he will even reach full-season ball.
Looking back at the highest-performing 16- and 17-year-old prospects from the DSL in 2021 and 2022, there are several who have either stagnated or washed out in the Complex League, so this is not without precedent. In almost every case, though (and I think possibly every case that didn’t involve a catcher), there was an easily identifiable reason. The player got hurt or suspended or carried huge hit tool red flags even during his good DSL season.
Unless nagging injuries he tried to play through account for some of the struggles, however, that just isn’t the case for Ibarguen. That leads the optimist in me to think that this might not be the end—that Ibarguen won’t become a one-season DSL wonder. Playing time will be more difficult to come by this season (the ACL squad might be the only Brewers Stateside minor-league team with good outfield depth), but I believe Ibarguen has a chance to regain some of his prospect luster.
Tier 3: Juan Martinez
When looking at short-season minor-leaguers, especially the lower-profile ones without a ton of scouting reports, I rely on two things: statistics and organizational signals. Last year, I split up this category with one player who had statistics I thought made him underrated and another whose playing time (and position) indicated the Brewers thought highly of him. I could have done that again with Moises Polanco and Frederi Montero. Instead, this year, I will choose one player who has both, Juan Martinez.
Let’s start with the stats. His .700 OPS might have been among the lower totals for Brewers DSL regulars last season, but his statistical line has some definite bright spots. He had the second-lowest strikeout rate among Brewers DSLers, behind only Luis Pena. His walk rate wasn’t exceptional, but it was solid given his contact skills. He stole 15 bases in 16 tries and tallied five triples. He was one double away from hitting my 15% or less K rate, 10% or higher walk rate and .100 ISO benchmarks. He popped the ball up too much, but so did Tyler Rodriguez in 2023.
That brings us to organizational signals. The following chart lists every player still with the organization who got at least 10 at-bats in the first three spots in the DSL batting order in 2024
| Players | Spot in Batting Order | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | Total | |
|
Jorge Quintana |
65 | 130 | 5 | 200 |
|
Jesus Made |
154 | 21 | 0 | 175 |
|
Luis Pena |
0 | 143 | 20 | 163 |
|
Jose Anderson |
61 | 8 | 82 | 151 |
|
Juan Martinez |
3 | 5 | 88 | 96 |
|
Handelfry Encarnacion |
21 | 18 | 49 | 88 |
|
Frederi Montero |
5 | 7 | 55 | 67 |
|
Moises Polanco |
54 | 7 | 3 | 64 |
|
Kevin Ereu |
7 | 38 | 17 | 62 |
What’s more, Martinez played on the same team as Made and Pena (and Encarnacion for that matter), so for much of the season, he was only hitting behind two of the four top prospects in the DSL. He didn’t play a ton of shortstop, but again, Made and Pena. Overall, his playing time and place in the order were those of a player the Brewers believed in.
Pitchers
Tier 1: Wande Torres
More than half the hitters Wande Torres faced last season saw their at-bats end in a short walk back to the dugout, their faces filled with a mix of bewilderment and anger.
OK, the bewilderment and anger parts are just in my imagination, but when a guy strikes out more than half the hitters he faces, chances are he has induced a bit of both.
How good was Torres’ 53.2% K rate? It is the best in the DSL among pitchers with at least 10 innings since 2006. The one caveat is that Torres didn’t crack that 10 inning mark by much, throwing only 15 ⅔ innings as he worked his way back from an injury that cost him his entire 2023 season. It was a successful pseudo-rehab stint, though. Not only was Torres dominant strikeout-wise, but he almost halved his 2022 walk rate of 18% that weighed on the hard-throwing lefty’s peripherals.
Torres was brought stateside practically as soon as the DSL season ended, erasing any remaining doubt he would be in the U.S. next season. The question is, will Torres start in the ACL or will he skip the Complex League entirely and start the season in Carolina. I wouldn’t be at all surprised by the latter.
Tier 2: Melvin Hernandez
On the surface, the 2024 ACL season was a disaster for Brewers pitchers. They had the worst ERA, the worst WHIP and gave up the most hits. If you dig a little deeper, however, there was a different story to be told.
This was a team that had the ACL’s youngest pitching staff (all but three were older than the Brewers’ low-A Carolina staff). And the youngsters out-performed their peers. Of the 10 teenage pitchers on the Brewers’ ACL roster, six had FIPs less than the league average for teenagers. Five of those six earned promotions to A ball, with only Hayden Robinson’s injury preventing it from being a clean sweep. And once there, they outperformed the league average for pitchers promoted from the Complex League to low-A.
At the center of it was Melvin Hernandez, the third youngest pitcher in either Complex League (and one of the two younger than him logged all of two innings). Like many on the Brewers’ ACL pitching staff, his ERA was uninspiring, logging in at 5.09. Since 2021, however, only one pitcher has had a better Complex League FIP in 30+ innings than his 3.81, the Yankees’ Luis Serna in 2022. If you include 18-year-olds, the list only expands to 13, and only one of those was in the tougher on pitchers ACL.
Part of the reason for the success was that unlike other pitchers who see their DSL K rate fall upon coming stateside, Hernandez’s rose first in the ACL and then again during a brief 6 inning cameo in A ball to close the season. And he did it all without much movement in his walk rate as well. In many ways, of all the recent ACL pitchers, the one whose season this was most reminiscent of statistically was Yujanyer Herrera’s age 18 season.
At 5-11, Hernandez doesn’t have Herrera’s height or frame, but the Brewers have shown a lot of confidence in the teen pitcher thus far, aggressively promoting him at a young age. That and his performance thus far have me thinking that Hernandez could take another step in A ball in 2025 like Manuel Rodriguez and Daniel Corniel did this season.
Tier 3: Enderson Mercado
In 2022, the Brewers had a pitcher who had a decidedly above average FIP among the DSL’s youngest starters but with an ERA that lagged well behind. Despite an ERA of about 5, the Brewers pushed Daniel Corniel up to the ACL in 2023, then Carolina in 2024 and were rewarded by him holding his own against A-ball hitting in his age-19 season.
Now in 2024, the Brewers had a player whose FIP was even better than Corniel and whose ERA was even worse. Like Corniel, he had the best FIP among the 17-and-under pitchers in the Brewers’ DSL complex. He also had the top K/9 of any Brewers DSL pitcher with at least 30 innings.
Now Mercado was a bit on the erratic side, but the number of younger DSL rookie pitchers who put up the type of stats he did (10+K/9, 2.5+K/BB, a substantial number of starts and innings) is pretty limited. While I could see him, assuming he gets brought stateside, struggling a bit at times in the ACL (most pitchers do), I also think that he performs well enough to put himself on the list of lower-level names to watch heading into 2026.
Now It Is Your Turn
Who do you think are the top sleeper prospects? Do you have different DSL favorites? Think Jason Woodward or Ryan Birchard breaks into the top 20? Projecting Quinton Low to make big control strides coming back from injury? Let me know in the comments.
Interested in learning more about the Milwaukee Brewers' top prospects? Check out our comprehensive top prospects list that includes up-to-date stats, articles and videos about every prospect, scouting reports, and more!
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