2024 Brewers Positional Preview: The Pencilled In Starting Pitchers

Pat Murphy commented that Wade Miley is 50/50 to be ready for April 1st. He will likely have several spells on the injured list throughout the year, meaning pitching depth will be vital. The Brewers have invested heavily in it, with much competition for places throughout spring training. That being said, a few could reasonably expect a berth on Opening Day, injury permitting.

Freddy Peralta
The verifiable, undisputed ace of the staff with Corbin Burnes’ departure and Brandon Woodruff’s injury, Peralta showed significant promise in the second half of 2023 that should leave no one in doubt of his abilities with a 2.35 FIP and 2.85 ERA from July 14 onwards where he also struck out almost 14 batters per nine innings. Amongst a variety of things, including an admission of tipping pitches, the strikeout rate was the biggest reason for his extraordinary rise, resulting from his changeup.

Peralta’s changeup in April and May had swing and miss rates of just 15% and 8.7%, respectively, far below his career norms. In a season where he threw the changeup more than ever before, it greatly affected his results, and this may be what he tipped. As a result, it put more pressure on his fastball, and again, by his admission, he struggled to be himself on the mound and started to force things, which caused a reduction in his spin rates for the four-seamer and reduced his chase rates at the top of the strike zone. You can see below how he threw a similar number of fastballs with 2350 - 2450 RPMs but over 50% more pitches with above 2450 RPMs: 

Chris Hook noticed this personality issue and challenged him to bring that happy-go-lucky attitude we fans love so much, and it was from here that the season turned around with an NL pitcher of the month in August and perhaps the most dominant pitcher in the second half of the season. Spencer Strider could also claim the title, but Peralta’s swing-and-miss ability lends hope that the Brewers may have another Cy Young-ready pitcher. That ability to stay relaxed on the mound will always be key to him moving forward.

As always with Freddy Peralta, the major question is if he can pitch enough innings. Could the Brewers find a way to get him into the sixth and seventh innings more often? The increased use of his changeup could help with this, as it had a 67.2% ground ball rate in 2023 that should allow him to get quicker outs and be less reliant on the strikeout, even recording a 56% rate against right-handed hitters. It's still a question mark, but there’s no doubt that Peralta, at his best, is an ace in every sense of the word.

Colin Rea
Colin Rea’s 1.19 WHIP and 126 innings of work were a vital cog in the Brewer’s success last season, earning him a $4.5 million deal with the Brewers for this season. His four-seam fastball was sneaky good, with opponents hitting just .135, which led to starting pitchers in major league baseball; along with an effective sweeper, he debuted in 2023 with a 36% whiff rate. He had the tools to be perhaps more successful than one would think, but home run balls let him down in pressure situations, and he struggled against lefties where he didn’t have an out pitch.

Against southpaws, Rea’s WHIP was a far less robust 1.32 with 15 home runs in 57 innings pitched. One way to address this would be to use his sweeper more against left-handers despite conventional wisdom after producing an xBA/xSlg of .195/.253 against them last season despite being his least frequent pitch against opposite-sided hitters. No other pitch had a swing-and-miss rate over 23%, which will cause problems at this level. The other pitch he’s been working on is his split changeup.

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“I never had a good feel for a changeup,” said Rea, who threw 12 of his 16 pitches for strikes.

“It had been years and years and years of messing around with grips. A few weeks before camp started, I came across a split changeup grip. It feels pretty good so far. I’m going to implement it a lot this spring to see how hitters react to it.”

Colin Rea will do several things very well for this Brewers team in 2024. He’s going to eat innings and keep them in the game, he’ll get the ball on the ground at an above-average rate, and he’s going to make hitters earn their way on base without too many free passes. He’s not a number two starter by any means, but he will provide good value for a Brewers rotation in dire need of consistency week in and week out.

Wade Miley
Miley has brought value with the Brewers in several ways, but his in-game nous and pinpoint command have allowed him to succeed year after year in the major leagues. In 2023, he had a hard hit rate of just 31%, a 47% ground ball rate, and, most importantly, an ERA of 3.14. He doesn’t walk hitters; he gets the ball on the ground and keeps it in the ballpark, which allows the Brewers' elite defense to continue playing up.

Wade Miley’s biggest strength is his situational pitching, with a knack for achieving precisely his needs. His ground ball rate jumps with men in scoring position, which is a large result of that elite changeup of his, perhaps his only above-average pitch in terms of movement profiles. He can eat innings well when healthy, with his outings usually featuring a lot of cheap and quick outs, but some concerns are leading into 2024.

With Miley, there will always be a question of whether he can stay fit, but there are other warning signs in his underlying metrics. His barrel rate in 2023 was higher than ever, and his ground ball rate dropped from the truly elite 49%-53% range he was in since 2017 down to 46%. The ground balls are a key part of what Miley does, and he’ll need them to resemble his 2023 performance.

Miley, like Colin Rea, isn’t going to be a strong number two pitcher. Still, the combination of them towards the tail end of the rotation gives the Brewers some performance history and experience that can hopefully benefit the young and talented arms trying to push their way into the Brewers rotation.

The remaining rotation spots are all up for grabs in spring training, but these three seem locked in… stay tuned for the breakdown of the contenders!