Chad Patrick's Recent Struggles Could Make a Tough Rotation Decision Easier for Brewers

When a line drive struck Brandon Woodruff's right elbow three weeks ago, it delayed what was shaping up to be a controversial roster decision. While Woodruff's stuff was down a few more ticks in his recent rehab starts, the Brewers appeared intent on activating him soon. Pat Murphy implied that Chad Patrick, who owned a 2.97 ERA at the time but has three minor-league option years remaining, could head to Triple-A as part of the roster math.

A few weeks later, that decision is drawing near again, and this time, it could be less controversial. Woodruff is slated for a final rehab outing, after a 60-pitch simulated game on Monday in which he said his stuff and command were the "crispest" they've been up to this point in his rehab. He feels that the hiatus was, indeed, a blessing in disguise, as it gave him time to refine his mechanics and put himself in a better position to perform.

"My body is starting to move without having to think about it, if that makes sense," he said. "I've been trying to do stuff and feel certain stuff, and now I've used these two weeks here, and I really cleaned a lot of stuff up."

Of course, Woodruff must demonstrate in his next rehab start that his stuff has indeed improved and can play against big-league hitters. However, Patrick's performance is also a key piece in the puzzle. He struggled for a third straight start on Monday night, a stretch during which he has allowed 13 earned runs in 15 innings.

"He hasn't been quite as sharp with his stuff," Murphy said. "The command hasn't been as good. The cutter has been a little more inconsistent, still really good at times. And people know about him."

The rookie has struck out 30.1% of batters in those three outings, and his average fastball velocity has increased, but a 55.6% hard-hit rate and his continued inability to work through an order a third time (.996 OPS) could give the Brewers what they see as fitting justification to demote him when they need to clear a rotation spot.

Part of the equation may also be whether Patrick can refine his secondary pitches to create more velocity and movement separation from his three fastballs. He has proven that his cutter can play against big-league hitters, but his changeup lacks run, and his slider has been inconsistent. So far, 88% of his pitches have been some variant of the fastball, which may be contributing to his struggles a third time through the order.

"When you're just a (three-pitch) guy, it's going to get vulnerable if you've seen a guy a bunch," Murphy said.

With Woodruff on the mend, will Patrick's recent speed bump be a determining factor in upcoming conversations about the rotation?

"We'll have those discussions," Murphy said. "But we believe Chad is a major-league pitcher."

Patrick still sits on a 3.72 ERA and 3.54 FIP through 17 games (16 starts). His recent performance notwithstanding, he isn't deserving of a demotion. But if he and Woodruff are trending in opposite directions, it could make what looked like a challenging decision last month far more straightforward this time around. The Brewers could shift him to the big-league bullpen and demote DL Hall instead, but optioning Patrick to continue starting in Nashville may soon prove best for maintaining rotation depth and furthering his development.