How Hard Will Brewers Chase After Garrett Crochet?

Garrett Crochet is expected to cost just $10 million over the next two years. He produced some of the gaudiest strikeout numbers from a starting pitcher in recent memory this season, his first in that role. The White Sox are determined to offload him, and there’s no shortage of suitors. The Chicago Cubs, the Cincinnati Reds, the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox are all heavily in the mix, although the Yankees' farm system might not be strong enough to pull it off and the Red Sox are not currently viewed as aggressive. On Monday morning, Jon Morosi has confirmed the Brewers are one of the teams still in the running:

Why Go After Garrett Crochet?
In short: Crochet is an ace. When healthy and on the mound last season, despite playing on one of the worst baseball teams in modern history, Crochet was box office. His arsenal plays off a four-seam fastball that averages 97 mph with over seven feet of extension and over 2500 RPM, allowing it to miss bats at over a 30% clip—an overpowering figure, for a fastball. In fact, all five pitches he threw last season had whiff rates of over 30%. Crochet finished 2022 as a four-seamer/changeup/sweeper pitcher, but in his long rehab process, he added a cutter that linked his arsenal in such a way as to make him truly devastating. 

As you can see above, the difference between the movement on his four-seamer and the sweeper is vast, but sometimes, that makes it too easy to distinguish them early. Having a pitch that bridges the gap was his original aim, but instead, the cutter became so effective (tunneling beautifully with his four-seamer) that he almost ditched the sweeper entirely.

Throwing two pitches a combined 80%+ of the time in games usually isn’t a recipe for success in MLB, but Crochet’s four-seamer and cutter were utterly devastating, to the tune of an expected ERA of 2.85 and 209 strikeouts in just 146 innings. And yet, he may still be getting better:

In August and September, Crochet unveiled a new pitch while increasing his sweeper usage to boot. His sinker alone had an:

• xWOBA of .136
• Whiff Rate of 32%
• Average launch angle of -44°
• Average exit velocity of 78.5 mph

All of this in a small sample size of 50 pitches, but in developing a sinker to work off his four-seam fastball and returning his sweeper into the cutter and four-seam mix of his early-season work, Crochet’s performance took off to new heights. Bear in mind, he was working in shorter spurts toward the end of the season, but he had thrown 161% more pitches in 2024 than any other season in his career. In September alone, where you can see his more balanced arsenal, his strikeout rate rocketed up to an incredible 42% and his xWOBA dropped to .261 after a fairly poor August by the standards of the rest of his season.

Giving the Brewers a fastball mix of this caliber alongside a sweeper that misses bats consistently and a 90+ mph changeup would be like handing Santa Claus to the Grinch in handcuffs. They work so well with this arsenal, and given health, it’s easy to see how he could excel with them.

Health is a big concern, and injuries have plagued him ever since the White Sox rushed him to the majors without a single game played in the minor leagues. Having had both Tommy John and shoulder surgeries, this will drop his value somewhat in a trade, especially with just one full season as a starter under his belt. Still, a Brewers rotation in the 2025 playoffs headlined by Crochet is a markedly different beast than one headlined by Freddy Peralta, and to give themselves a chance to win a World Series, there’s no doubt Crochet adds some real punch.

What Would The White Sox Demand?
Having Hagen Smith and Noah Schultz among their top prospects has the White Sox looking for reinforcements elsewhere in their farm system, particularly the infield, which makes the likes of Jacob Misiorowski less likely as a target. Using the more hitter-centric parts of the Brewers camp, a possible trade may look something like this:

Tyler Black
A likely centerpiece of the trade, Black’s path to Milwaukee is currently blocked with the corner outfields well manned. However, the White Sox have a multitude of openings and, more than that, Black’s style of play is the type a struggling club needs. Hard, gritty, with pull-side power, grinding at-bats and good plate discipline, Black can be the kind of player to produce consistently and set the tone for the rest of the White Sox lineup, being MLB-ready and still having six years of club control remaining.

Luke Adams
A hitter with supreme power and an on-base fiend, part of which is derived from the plunking he took off wild pitches, Adams is an athletic third baseman with speed, tons of raw power and a great eye at the plate. He shows a high upside, especially if he can continue to work on his actions at third base, and potentially be more aggressive in the strike zone.

Or;

Luis Lara
One of the best defensive outfielders in the Brewers system, Lara showcased surprising exit velocities in Arizona during the fall league. Standing at 5-foot-7 with a swing comparable to that of Ronald Acuna Jr.(although I’m in no way comparing the two in production), Lara has impressed scouts wherever he’s gone and is expected to ascend next season in the Brewers rankings. His strong floor and improving exit velocities at just 20 years old showcase a good future.

Here’s the kicker… the above isn’t enough when you look at Crochet’s market. It’s too hotly contested. For a pitcher expected to cost a mere $10 million over the next two seasons, the Brewers will have to go large, and it may involve one of their top two prospects:

Jeferson Quero
A two-time minor-league Gold Glove winner for some ostentatious displays behind the plate. A cannon of an arm and a real feel for working with his staff. There’s a strong belief that Quero can tap into at least league-average production behind the plate for the Brewers.

There is some uncertainty about how his arm will recover from major shoulder surgery last offseason, but he’d be an attractive piece for the White Sox, and his ability to impact the ball suggests he may be a top-echelon catching prospect.

The Brewers have William Contreras for another few years and have a knack for developing catchers in-house defensively, so Quero is more likely to be a long-term loss than a short-term one. However, catchers with his defensive chops at just 20 years old are as rare as diamonds.

Or;

Cooper Pratt
Noted as the steal of the draft in 2023, the Brewers' 6th-round pick has now cracked the top 100 on MLB Pipeline, with a bat that showed burgeoning power toward the end of the year—compounded by a minor-league Gold Glove at shortstop, where he’s absolutely excelled. Pratt’s makeup, baseball IQ, approach and defense make him a highly attractive prospect who will stick at shortstop and has the ability to provide average or better offense on top of strong defense at the key defensive stronghold.

The Brewers have more infield prospects than catchers in their system currently; maybe makes Pratt more expendable than Quero. In any case, both are top-tier talents.

The Brewers have the farm depth to go after someone like Crochet. The question is whether or not they’re comfortable leveraging that strength to gamble on someone who has had injury problems. One more elbow operation and the value of the trade goes up in smoke for the Brewers.

On the flip side, as evidenced by the Juan Soto contract, the market is ever more skewed in favor of the big-market teams, and the Brewers need to find high-upside talent for as low a price as possible. Doing so requires exceptional drafting, or high-leverage trades. This may fall into the latter.

Remember, nobody worries much anymore about the prospects the Brewers traded away for Christian Yelich. Maybe it's time again to push those chips onto the table.

Can you see the Brewers dangling either Cooper Pratt or Jeferson Quero for an arm like Crochet? Do you think he’s worth that much prospect capital? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!