Brewers Video
Keston Hiura has had several chances with the Brewers. He demonstrated formidable promise in his first half-season, though his underlying numbers told a less inspiring story even then. He has struck out at alarming rates in all of his trials in the majors, and although he makes high-quality contact when he does put the ball in play, his slumps were too excessive and damaging to keep him on the major-league roster–particularly given his lack of a defensive home, and his inability to damage left-handed pitching. He’s currently down in Nashville, where he just hit his 12th home run of the year, and making hay. Could this time be different?
The New & Improved
Hiura has usually been quite successful in Triple A with the Nashville Sounds, but what is he doing differently that’s generating a modicum of hope?
Well, historically, even despite the vast power output, he has still struck out with incredible regularity at the highest level of the minor-league system, failing to put the ball in play 31.6% of the time in his stints in 2021 and 2022. This, as you’d suspect, led to even higher strikeout rates against the higher-quality pitching in the majors, and made him almost un-rosterable. However, after a sluggish spring training, and a high strikeout start to the season while adapting his swing, he’s struck out at a 22.2% clip over his last 28 days, which falls even further (to just 17.9%) since April 21st. He has just two punchouts in his last 18 plate appearances.
Hiura’s biggest issue has always been the high fastballs, with a golf-like swing destroying pitches low in the zone. In 2022, he swung and missed on over 50% of pitches in the upper third of the strike zone, with over a 40% whiff rate overall on the year. The contrast in his effectiveness depending on pitch location is most emphasized by his expected stats on sinkers vs four seamers;
- Four Seam Fastball – xBA .198, xSlg .489
- Sinkers – xBA .349, xSlg .700
He has tried reducing the leg kick to improve his timing on those high fastballs, and this season, he’s worked on eliminating the leg kick altogether and just relying on his hands and hips to generate power. Have a look at two contrasting videos, one from 2022 and one from this season.
Here's what a two-home game in Nashville looked like last year:
And here he is hitting his 10th dinger of 2023.
As you can see, this season, Hiura gets his foot down almost as soon as the pitcher starts his motion, leaving himself with a lot more time to read and react to the pitch. It’s resulted in a much higher contact rate up in the zone so far, as well as a better (lower) chase rate. His at-bats have been more selective, and he’s had better timing on the high fastball, not necessarily doing damage, but fouling off pitches, putting balls in play and then doing damage on any mistakes or pitches low in the strike zone. He’s forcing pitchers into areas they don’t want to be, and then he’s punishing them for it.
He’s showing growth as the season goes on, demonstrating a better propensity to take his walks in May, though this could be down to being pitched around a little bit more. His declining strikeouts and improved plate discipline are huge developments, and he’s been a far cry from the three-pitch, three-whiff outs we saw with regularity last season.
Secondly, he’s started to show an ability to hit left handers this season, hitting five home runs in 37 at-bats, with a manageable 25% strikeout rate. His OPS is 1.105, and he’s hitting the changeup effectively–a big bonus, given he had a .168 xwOBA against it last season. Forty plate appearances is a small sample, but it certainly shows some promise.
Defensively, Hiura appears to have found a home in some respects, showing himself to have average speed and a solid enough glove in left field, with some highlight reel plays, including an outfield assist at home plate Wednesday night. It could easily be argued that he’s a better option than Jesse Winker, who has lost all semblance of speed, as well as being able to fill in at first base in an average way (also providing more range than Rowdy Tellez). Being able to use him to rest Yelich or Tellez on occasion would make him far more attractive to Craig Counsell.
Tomorrow, we'll talk more about the understandable reservations the team might still have about calling up Hiura, but also how he can fit on the 26-man roster soon. In the meantime, let us know what you see as different in Hiura this year, and whether you believe these changes can translate to MLB.
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