Article: Is Keston Hiura Ready for His Dramatic Comeback? Part I

[Jake McKibbin]

As the Brewers' offensive rough patch continues, it's only natural to look to the Triple-A roster to consider alternatives to the current group of hitters. There's someone down there raking. The question is: are you ready to trust him again?

Keston Hiura has had several chances with the Brewers. He demonstrated formidable promise in his first half-season, though his underlying numbers told a less inspiring story even then. He has struck out at alarming rates in all of his trials in the majors, and although he makes high-quality contact when he does put the ball in play, his slumps were too excessive and damaging to keep him on the major-league roster–particularly given his lack of a defensive home, and his inability to damage left-handed pitching. He’s currently down in Nashville, where he just hit his 12th home run of the year, and making hay. Could this time be different?

The New & Improved

Hiura has usually been quite successful in Triple A with the Nashville Sounds, but what is he doing differently that’s generating a modicum of hope?

Well, historically, even despite the vast power output, he has still struck out with incredible regularity at the highest level of the minor-league system, failing to put the ball in play 31.6% of the time in his stints in 2021 and 2022. This, as you’d suspect, led to even higher strikeout rates against the higher-quality pitching in the majors, and made him almost un-rosterable. However, after a sluggish spring training, and a high strikeout start to the season while adapting his swing, he’s struck out at a 22.2% clip over his last 28 days, which falls even further (to just 17.9%) since April 21st. He has just two punchouts in his last 18 plate appearances.

Hiura’s biggest issue has always been the high fastballs, with a golf-like swing destroying pitches low in the zone. In 2022, he swung and missed on over 50% of pitches in the upper third of the strike zone, with over a 40% whiff rate overall on the year. The contrast in his effectiveness depending on pitch location is most emphasized by his expected stats on sinkers vs four seamers;

• Four Seam Fastball – xBA .198, xSlg .489
• Sinkers – xBA .349, xSlg .700

He has tried reducing the leg kick to improve his timing on those high fastballs, and this season, he’s worked on eliminating the leg kick altogether and just relying on his hands and hips to generate power. Have a look at two contrasting videos, one from 2022 and one from this season.

Here's what a two-home game in Nashville looked like last year:

And here he is hitting his 10th dinger of 2023.

As you can see, this season, Hiura gets his foot down almost as soon as the pitcher starts his motion, leaving himself with a lot more time to read and react to the pitch. It’s resulted in a much higher contact rate up in the zone so far, as well as a better (lower) chase rate. His at-bats have been more selective, and he’s had better timing on the high fastball, not necessarily doing damage, but fouling off pitches, putting balls in play and then doing damage on any mistakes or pitches low in the strike zone. He’s forcing pitchers into areas they don’t want to be, and then he’s punishing them for it.

He’s showing growth as the season goes on, demonstrating a better propensity to take his walks in May, though this could be down to being pitched around a little bit more. His declining strikeouts and improved plate discipline are huge developments, and he’s been a far cry from the three-pitch, three-whiff outs we saw with regularity last season.

Secondly, he’s started to show an ability to hit left handers this season, hitting five home runs in 37 at-bats, with a manageable 25% strikeout rate. His OPS is 1.105, and he’s hitting the changeup effectively–a big bonus, given he had a .168 xwOBA against it last season. Forty plate appearances is a small sample, but it certainly shows some promise.

Defensively, Hiura appears to have found a home in some respects, showing himself to have average speed and a solid enough glove in left field, with some highlight reel plays, including an outfield assist at home plate Wednesday night. It could easily be argued that he’s a better option than Jesse Winker, who has lost all semblance of speed, as well as being able to fill in at first base in an average way (also providing more range than Rowdy Tellez). Being able to use him to rest Yelich or Tellez on occasion would make him far more attractive to Craig Counsell.

Tomorrow, we'll talk more about the understandable reservations the team might still have about calling up Hiura, but also how he can fit on the 26-man roster soon. In the meantime, let us know what you see as different in Hiura this year, and whether you believe these changes can translate to MLB.

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[Frisbee Slider]

There are more reasons to be optimistic for Hiura than Voit. #Ready4Keston

[rickh150]

So twisted… making Hiura out to be this awful MLB hitter (can we trust him?)  is just nuts, especially when his OPS was better than Adames, our #2 hitter in 2022. Bring him up, have him hit 8th at DH. Instant upgrade to the lineup.

[rickh150]

He has been jerked around so much by the Brewers I feel sorry for him. 

[rickh150]

Better to just say he has K issues and defensive issues. Hi bat looks way better, even his avg MLB self, than half of the guys on this team.

[Brewcrew82]

Yeah, substitute Keston for Voit on the 26 man and the 40 man. Winker still has time. Voit does not. It couldn't hurt us. 

[Brewcrew82]

21 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

He has been jerked around so much by the Brewers I feel sorry for him. 

Jerked around? He's been worth a negative WAR since his rookie season...Keston has been the author of his own misfortunes. He also has the opportunity to be the author of his own redemption. 

[Jake McKibbin]

1 minute ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Yeah, substitute Keston for Voit on the 26 man and the 40 man. Winker still has time. Voit does not. It couldn't hurt us. 

The question is could it hurt keston? He's clearly making strides, but he's maybe got a little more confidence to build in what'll be his last shot likely with the brewers. Is it better to give him sporadic time v left handers as Voit is getting? Or use him if winker fails?

[Brewcrew82]

4 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

The question is could it hurt keston? He's clearly making strides, but he's maybe got a little more confidence to build in what'll be his last shot likely with the brewers. Is it better to give him sporadic time v left handers as Voit is getting? Or use him if winker fails?

I'm willing to wait another week or so, but the Voit experiment has just about run its course. I think we could find Keston enough PAs even with Winker. 

[rickh150]

27 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Jerked around? He's been worth a negative WAR since his rookie season...Keston has been the author of his own misfortunes. He also has the opportunity to be the author of his own redemption. 

In the lineup, in the field, on the road between AAA and Milwaukee, at end of games…. Jerked around. Yet, he hit .866 OPS against righties with an inconsistent 157 plate appearances

[Brewcrew82]

26 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

In the lineup, in the field, on the road between AAA and Milwaukee, at end of games…. Jerked around. Yet, he hit .866 OPS against righties with an inconsistent 157 plate appearances

Negative WAR since rookie season...You can't get around that. 

"Jerked around" is simply BS. Brewers gave him EVERY opportunity in 2020, 2021, and then last year, he was inserted into the everyday lineup for a month despite an unsustainable 41% K rate and he predictably proceeded to OPS below .600. 

[sveumrules]

34 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

In the lineup, in the field, on the road between AAA and Milwaukee, at end of games…. Jerked around. Yet, he hit .866 OPS against righties with an inconsistent 157 plate appearances

Yet, no MLB team thought that small sample performance vs RHP (with alarming underlying indicators) was worth claiming Keston and his $2.2M salary.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm still in no rush to call up Hiura. If he's truly changing his approach, give him some time to stabilize himself. He's not a replacement for Voit, he's just not. I consider Voit not part of the conversation. He needs to be replaced, that much is sure, but Hiura doesn't fill his role as a lefty masher. The Brewers need to replace Voit but Hiura doesn't do that, he's just another guy who hits righties. Arnold needs to go find someone who can play a corner role and OPS .800 against LHP.

And in a couple of weeks, I'll be ready to move on from Winker if he doesn't right the ship and Hiura does fill Winker's role if called up.

[wiguy94]

31 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I'm still in no rush to call up Hiura. If he's truly changing his approach, give him some time to stabilize himself. He's not a replacement for Voit, he's just not. I consider Voit not part of the conversation. He needs to be replaced, that much is sure, but Hiura doesn't fill his role as a lefty masher. The Brewers need to replace Voit but Hiura doesn't do that, he's just another guy who hits righties. Arnold needs to go find someone who can play a corner role and OPS .800 against LHP.

And in a couple of weeks, I'll be ready to move on from Winker if he doesn't right the ship and Hiura does fill Winker's role if called up.

Pretty sure Darin Ruf is a FA. Might be worth spinning the wheels on him to see if he can just hit LHP for us. 

[yourout]

I will never understand the big front leg lift.

Leaves you vulnerable to velocity change and make catching up to high fastballs nearly impossible on a regular basis.

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I'm willing to wait another week or so, but the Voit experiment has just about run its course. I think we could find Keston enough PAs even with Winker. 

And that’s fair, I’d just rather see them directly address the Voit problem first and Hiura doesn’t resolve that in any way. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

55 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Pretty sure Darin Ruf is a FA. Might be worth spinning the wheels on him to see if he can just hit LHP for us. 

All I know is that I feel prescient for writing this in January.

 

[wiguy94]

19 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

All I know is that I feel prescient for writing this in January.

 

Hey I was on board with that!

[Brock Beauchamp]

38 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Hey I was on board with that!

Indeed you were!

[rickh150]

3 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Negative WAR since rookie season...You can't get around that. 

"Jerked around" is simply BS. Brewers gave him EVERY opportunity in 2020, 2021, and then last year, he was inserted into the everyday lineup for a month despite an unsustainable 41% K rate and he predictably proceeded to OPS below .600. 

Using WAR, sure, he looks bad.  Yet his OPS was better than Adames, our maybe best hitter in 2022? Let’s not drag his name through the mud when that is true. Sign me up for Hiura in the 8th spot striking out 50% of the time if he can hit 30 HRs and be even a .750 OPS guy.
Let’s just look at the bat and commit to him lower in the order. Our weakness at the MLB level is scoring runs. How about if we acknowledge that the NL has a DH and we actually consider Hiura for that position, especially if our current DH options are playing themselves out of playing time, and we really do not have other great options.

 

[rickh150]

3 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Negative WAR since rookie season...You can't get around that. 

"Jerked around" is simply BS. Brewers gave him EVERY opportunity in 2020, 2021, and then last year, he was inserted into the everyday lineup for a month despite an unsustainable 41% K rate and he predictably proceeded to OPS below .600. O

2-4 tonight. Pulled late.

[sveumrules]

11 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

2-4 tonight. Pulled late.

He got picked off first to end the 7th inning so he either got pulled for injury, getting picked off, defensive replacement (he was playing LF), or to replace Voit.

[rickh150]

8 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

He got picked off first to end the 7th inning so he either got pulled for injury, getting picked off, defensive replacement (he was playing LF), or to replace Voit.

Thanks for info.

[Frisbee Slider]

2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

All I know is that I feel prescient for writing this in January.

Kyle Garlick with .651 OPS against LHP in 22 AB for Saint Paul this year. Striking out 33.3% of time, overall.

[Brock Beauchamp]

11 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Kyle Garlick with .651 OPS against LHP in 22 AB for Saint Paul this year. Striking out 33.3% of time, overall.

22 ABs.