Is the Middle of the Order Killing the Brewers? PART ONE

Coming into the season, the Brewers knew that both Willy Adames (as he did in 2021) and Rowdy Tellez (with an awful BABIP last season) have the potential to be .800+ OPS hitters who drive in runs with regularity. Adames, in particular, has always shown additional quality with men on base, a fingerspitzengefühl so often missing for the Milwaukee offense.

The team also boasts an improved Christian Yelich (.405 OBP in his last 30 games, and currently on a hot streak) and Jesse Winker, who has recently started hitting the ball harder and has a great eye at the plate to set the platform. This should have been a big boost, yet Adames and Tellez haven’t held up their end of the bargain, with the mostly average Brian Anderson leading the team with 34 RBIs.

Coming into yesterday's game, all of the two- to four-hole hitters averaged under .200 over their last 10 games, and it’s letting Yelich’s production go to waste.

So what’s going wrong?

Willy Adames

Adames’s walk and strikeout numbers are eerily similar to his big season when he came to the Brewers in 2021, but results-wise, it just hasn’t been there, largely due to a lack of quality contact and attacking approach at the plate. However, this has always been the case, looking at his swing percentages compared to his prime season. Pitchers are attacking him almost exactly the same way, but his contact ability has disappeared, particularly against the fastball. In 2021, he had an xBA of .309 against fastballs, which has gone down to .227 in 2023. All over the zone, his average exit velocities have dropped by at least a couple of miles per hour, particularly on middle-away pitches where he used to do a ton of damage. Now, he averages just 87-mph contact speeds.
Brian Anderson and Bill Schroeder (among others) have noted the pull-heavy approach Adames has employed so far, rather than staying with the pitch and going to straightaway center or using the opposite field, and that’s borne out by his 50.3% pull rate so far this season, far and away a career high for a full season. He pulled just 42% of his batted balls in 2021, and 37% in 2022.

You can also see that he has increased the number of ground balls from pulling on the outer half of the plate, and for Adames, it’s crucial that he can elevate the ball. He doesn’t have massive bat speed, but his ability to find the sweet spot is his strength, similar to Nolan Arenado.]

The other thing he used to do well with, despite his swing-and-miss when it was well-located, was to hammer breaking balls when they were left up in the zone. He has an xSlg of just .249 against sliders so far this season. If he stayed with the pitch, he may find superior results in all facets of his game, in a similar way to what we see from William Contreras.

It seems like a simple fix, but he just needs to trust himself and his hands more, and I feel like his belief is lacking. That being said, his eighth-inning at-bat Sunday against Dauri Moreta, who has been exceptional for the Pirates, was his most selective of the day, and far and away the best. He swung at the right pitches, fouling off tough ones and working a long walk. The grinding approach suits Adames, and hopefully more can come if he can sustain that mentality.