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A recent article suggested that Black has some similarities to Tampa Rays third baseman Isaac Paredes. While both have played first, second, and third base in their professional careers, the similarities may not quite hold up.
Black and Paredes, Compared
According to Baseball-Reference, Tyler Black is a left-handed hitter, 5'10" tall, and 204 pounds. Paredes is a right-handed hitter, with a five-foot-eleven height and weighing 213 pounds. Do an inch and ten pounds matter much? Well, Brice Turang’s offense took a leap up when he played to his skill set, but the fact he added muscle didn't hurt him too much, either.
That said, while Black and Paredes arguably share batted ball data in common, and both have enough power to put balls in the stands when they pull the ball, they differ in two very important aspects of offense, and those differences matter a lot.
Walks
According to Baseball-Reference, Paredes has drawn 235 walks in 1,898 minor-league at-bats, or he walks about once every 8.07 at-bats. This is not a bad percentage, and that eye has held up in the majors with 149 walks in 1258 at-bats, or one walk for every 8.44 at-bats. It’s safe to say that Paredes has a decent eye to go with that power.
Black, though, has 197 walks in 975 at-bats. That is one for every 5.21 at-bats. This is a huge difference and a sign that Black has a phenomenal eye for the strike zone. This sort of difference matters. All things being equal, Black’s likely to put up higher OBP by racking up a lot of free passes.
Black’s superior OBP skills – and his eye – call for a different strategy than what might work for Paredes. There’s one other aspect of their offensive skill sets to look at.
Speed
Paredes posted nine triples and 13 steals across his 1,898 minor-league at-bats. Those don’t seem like bad numbers for a power hitter, particularly when looking at someone who has hit 56 homers in that timeframe.
Black’s 975 minor-league at-bats for those categories are 20 triples and 84 swipes. In fact, during his breakout 2023 campaign, Black dwarfed Paredes’s minor league career totals in those categories in a total of 450 at-bats with 12 triples and 55 steals.
There really is no comparison – on the basepaths, Black is a threat. When he gets hits, he can easily stretch doubles into triples and turn singles into doubles. This capability is completely absent from the skill set of Paredes and should be considered very carefully before one asks Black to completely sell out in this fashion.
Hiura’s Cautionary Tale
The Brewers drafted Keston Hiura in the first round of the 2017 draft. He rapidly rose through the minors to make his 2019 MLB debut as a second baseman. He posted a 138 OPS+ and was seen as a major contributor.
But things started to go off-track in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. Although Hiura led the Crew with 13 homers and 32 RBI, everything else went down the drain. He had an NL-leading 85 strikeouts and other numbers also dropped, including an OPS+ of only 87. In 2021, he completely cratered and split time between Milwaukee and Triple-A Nashville in that year and 2022. His partial rebound in 2022 wasn’t enough to keep him from being out-righted in 2023. In 2024, he’s split time between the Triple-A affiliates of the Tigers and the Angels.
One factor may have been the “launch angle” revolution. In 2022, Hiura’s average exit velocity and BABIP were relatively comparable to his 2019 totals as a rookie, but the strikeout rate was higher. His skill set before that was a lot like Paredes's, albeit with a higher strikeout rate. There’s a lesson here.
Overview
The Brewers have a very dynamic bat in Black, as he has demonstrated in the minors. In this case, though, the answer may be more along the lines of allowing Black to play to his superb skills – with some serious offseason conditioning to add some more muscle.
By letting Tyler Black be Tyler Black (albeit bulked up a little), the Brewers could get a truly special offensive player.
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