Whom Would the Brewers Protect in an MLB Expansion Draft?

The last time baseball expanded was in 1998, with the addition of the Arizona Diamondbacks and Tampa Bay Devil Rays. This brought the total of Major League Baseball teams to 30. Similarly, the NBA expanded to 30 teams in 2004 after expanding to 29 in 1995. The NFL expanded to 32 teams in 2002. The NHL reached 32 teams with expansions in 2000, 2017, and 2021. Since shrinking to 10 teams for the 2002-2004 seasons, Major League Soccer has expanded almost annually and will include 30 teams by 2025.

It’s inevitable. Leagues with 30 teams will add two more franchises (and collect enormous buy-in fees) sometime soon.

The reasons for expanding, where the franchises will end up, and if it’s necessary can and will be debated into the foreseeable future, but that’s not what this article is about. This is about what expansion means to your favorite team and the role they play in providing players to the new franchises.

THE EXPANSION DRAFT
While the rules could change from what was in place in 1997, they would likely be very similar. In the last edition of the expansion draft, each team was allowed to protect 15 players, while recently drafted players were exempt. If the next iteration followed the same rules, teams would essentially be allowed to protect 15 players from their 40-man rosters, while all other players would be exempt from the draft.

Players with 10-and-5 rights or no-trade clauses have to be included on the list of 15 players. It should also be noted that we’re looking at this when 40-man rosters are full, whereas an expansion draft would happen in the offseason, when some free agents and other fringe players wouldn’t be on the roster. (Players who project to be free agents after 2024 don’t need to be protected.)

Expansion teams will take 15 players each in round one (one player from each team) and then each existing team will be allowed to protect three more players. The same process will occur for a second round. At that point, each expansion team will have 30 players and each existing team will have lost two players and protected 21 players. In the 1997 draft, each of the two new teams got to select seven more players, giving them a total of 35. If this draft follows suit, the third round would consist of five American League and five National League teams, each losing one more player.

With that, and without further ado, let’s look at an early projection of whom the Brewers would protect and the best players they would leave unprotected.

No-trade clauses: OF Christian Yelich (1)
Yelich would be an interesting decision if it weren't for the no-trade clause. With over $120 million left on a contract that will pay him past the midpoint of his thirties, an expansion team probably wouldn't bite on that deal. But the point is moot, because Yelich will require one of the 15 spots.

No-brainers: OF Jackson Chourio (2), RHP Devin Williams (3) (‘25 club option), RHP Freddy Peralta (4) (‘25 club option), 1B Rhys Hoskins (5) ('25 player option), C William Contreras (6), OF Sal Frelick (7), LHP Aaron Ashby (8)
In no particular order, this makes up the rest of the current core of the Brewers team. But it's a wide variety of players--from the young phenom with the huge deal to the 30-something first baseman coming off major knee surgery and everything in between. 

Prospects: C Jeferson Quero (9), SS Joey Ortiz (10)
Originally, I had this group under the "protected" group, but I think it makes more sense to include these two first and for a few reasons. Quero is considered one of the top catching prospects in baseball, if not the best. He's a slam-dunk choice, and would likely make the Brewers one of the only teams to protect two catchers. There's already a dearth of quality catchers in baseball, and when you add two more teams, it's going to be even worse. The Brewers could take advantage of this.

Ortiz is a lock, because you can't get him for Burnes and then lose him for nothing.

Protected: LHP D.L Hall (11), RHP Abner Uribe (12), SS Brice Turang (13), OF Joey Wiemer (14), RHP Trevor Megill (15)
This is always going to be the group debated the most, regardless of team. I'd consider Hall a near-lock at this point, as well as Uribe.

The other three, however, will probably create the most debate. While Adames is a free agent after the season, Ortiz may leapfrog Turang, who was underwhelming as a rookie but still provides value. Wiemer is also young, but fits in fourth in the outfield pecking order. Then there's Megill, who has four years of team control and is an overpowering bullpen arm, but is 30 years old and (after all) a bullpen arm.

If everyone made their list of 15, I'd guess the last group of three would be the most interchangeable. 

Exposed: RHP Jakob Junis (‘25 mutual option), C Gary Sanchez (‘25 mutual option), LHP Wade Miley (‘25 mutual option), OF Garrett Mitchell, C Eric Haase, 2B Oliver Dunn, 2B Jahmai Jones, 2B Owen Miller, RHP Bryse Wilson, UTIL Vinny Capra, OF Blake Perkins, OF Chris Roller, RHP Janson Junk, RHP Bradley Blalock, RHP Elvis Peguero, RHP Thyago Vieira, LHP Bryan Hudson, RHP J.B. Buskauskas, 1B Jake Bauers, 3B Andruw Monasterio, RHP Joel Payamps, LHP Hoby Milner, RHP Taylor Clarke

Free agents: SS Willy Adames, RHP Colin Rea (‘25 club option), RHP Joe Ross
In this initial look, the Brewers would risk exposing some infield depth. Oliver Dunn, Owen Miller, or Andruw Monasterio could all see their value shoot up (and ultimately take Turang's spot on the list). There's also a handful of viable relief pitchers (whom you could argue should be protected instead of Megill) and outfielders (who may be better suited to be protected than Wiemer). 

Note:  I didn't include Brandon Woodruff, who is a great unknown right now and whose contract terms haven't been released. If he returns to health, the Brewers would protect him. If not, he wouldn't be selected. Some of these choices also depend on rules that could be different this time around, given the way contract conventions have evolved since the last expansion draft. It's possible, for instance that Hoskins wouldn't need to be protected, because he has the ability to make himself a free agent after 2024, but players with such options (phrased and structured slightly differently) did have to be protected in the last two expansion drafts.

Prediction: Almost a third of all rosters are the bullpen, and Joel Payamps seems like the best option. He's bounced around a ton, but seemed to find his footing in 2023, striking out 77 in 71 innings, and he still has two years of team control. If Payamps was lost, the Brewers would likely pull back another bullpen arm (Wilson?), some of their infield depth (Monasterio?), and maybe someone like Mitchell, who is a victim of the organization's outfield depth. In the second and/or third round, it would make a lot of sense for an expansion team to target Haase, a journeyman catcher who can provide depth, or Perkins, who would be a perfect fourth outfielder for the Brewers but could be in line for a bigger role for an expansion team. 

Who would you protect? And who do you think you'd be most likely to lose?