3 Affordable Free Agent First Basemen for the Brewers

Carlos Santana has returned to free agency, and the Brewers non-tendered Rowdy Tellez last month. The only viable first baseman they have, for now, is Jake Bauers, whom they acquired from the Yankees just ahead of the non-tender deadline. Here are three guys who would be an upgrade from there, at a low cost.

Mike Ford
Ford had a strong start to his major-league career in 2019, when he was called up by the New York Yankees and posted a .909 OPS over 163 plate appearances. He failed to recapture that magic thereafter, and bounced around to several organizations before ending up in Seattle for a third stint in 2023. This return to the Pacific Northwest marked his second-best season, and he finished with a slash line of .228/.323/.475 over 251 plate appearances. Without Ford, DH would’ve stood for “disappointing hitter” and the Mariners would’ve had to rely on the likes of A.J. Pollock or Cooper Hummel. Despite his contributions to the team, he was designated for assignment to make room for outfield prospect Zach DeLoach.

Although recently used primarily as a designated hitter, Ford has spent most of his career at first base and played 37 games there in 2023. Furthermore, his hitting profile matches that of a typical slugging first baseman. His hard-hit rate (44.6%) was above league-average and his Barrel rate (17.3%) would’ve placed him second in MLB if he had been qualified. Sure, he struck out a lot (32.3%), whiffed a lot (30.4%), and won’t be winning a batting title anytime soon, but his ISO of .247 puts him up there with other known power threats like Juan Soto (.244) and Ronald Acuna Jr. (.259). Luckily for his future team, he won’t cost nearly as much as either of those two superstars. 

Ford earned just $720,000 from the Mariners for the 2023 season, and won’t make much more in 2024. He’s not a marquee name and his free agency has been buried under more viral news about other superstars, but signing Ford could be a huge value play for Milwaukee. He would add some much-needed power to the lineup and bats left-handed, just like Tellez before him. Also, at just 31 years old with a shade over three years of service time, the Brewers could keep him around for peanuts if they wished to do so. 

Garrett Cooper
Cooper spent six productive years with the Miami Marlins, averaging a .774 OPS and 110 OPS+ over his tenure with the Fish. After he began to slow down in 2023, he was dealt to the Padres at the trade deadline. He managed to regain some momentum in August but slipped again in September, bringing his final slash line for the season to .251/.304/.419 over 457 plate appearances.

Cooper’s peripherals in 2023 weren’t great, and the only feature of note was his Sweet-Spot rate (40.4%) which was in the top 5% of qualified hitters. However, it was just a year ago that Cooper earned his first All-Star nod and posted a 112 OPS+. In 2022, he was near the top quartile for several offensive Statcast categories, including expected weighted on base average (.341), Barrel rate (10.7%), and once again, Sweet-Spot rate (39.0%). We saw some flashes of the same player this year, but with higher chase, whiff, and strikeout rates, he just wasn’t able to put the ball in play as often.

With slight tweaks to increase his exit velocity and plate discipline, Cooper could return to being a solid offensive contributor at a reasonable price. He signed a $4.2-million contract and avoided arbitration prior to last season, so it wouldn’t be out of the question for him to end up with a one- or two-year deal around the same AAV. He’ll be 33 years old on Opening Day 2024, meaning he might also be a good candidate for an extension if he meets (or exceeds) expectations.

Dominic Smith
Following a six-year stint with the Mets, Smith signed a one-year contract with the Nationals and became their full-time first baseman. He made major improvements after a dismal 2022 and slashed .254/.326/.366, his highest OPS since an incredible 2020 season that garnered him a handful of MVP votes. While he performed admirably against righty pitchers, he was dragged down considerably by his difficulties against left-handed pitching, posting a .588 OPS against southpaw arms.

Unlike the two players mentioned above, Smith traded away power and extra bases to make better contact and avoid getting punched out. His excellent strikeout rate (15.5%) placed him in the 88th percentile of qualified hitters and he performed similarly well when it came to his whiff rate (19.9%), landing in the 79th percentile. 

Unfortunately for Smith, his low average exit velocity (86.3 mph) severely reduced his ability to make a scoring impact and his Batting Run Value of -17 was in the bottom 5% of the league. The rate stats on each of the pitches he faced were actually quite good, but his catastrophic .510 OPS with runners in scoring position gave him a measly 46 RBI despite often batting fifth or sixth in the lineup. Whether this was a result of bad luck, nerves, or a mix of both, it creates an interesting disparity between his actual stats and their eventual outcomes.

Smith earned $2 million over his year with the Nationals before being non-tendered, making him a free agent. Despite his relatively cheap price tag, he’s shown the potential to be a power bat in the past. In 2019 and 2020, he combined for an outstanding .937 OPS over 396 plate appearances with the Mets. With the right development, he may be able to find that success again. If not, he’ll be a low-cost, replacement-level experiment at the very least.

Guys Who Were Just Too Expensive To Qualify
If Milwaukee had the same payroll as the Mets, Yankees, or Phillies, they’d be free to pursue the likes of Rhys Hoskins or Brandon Belt. Sadly, with the candidate pool as shallow as it is, players of such caliber are receiving even more inflated market prices. For example, despite not playing a single game in 2023, MLB Trade Rumors is anticipating that Hoskins will sign a two-year, $36-million deal. All 36 years of Brandon Belt is estimated to receive a one-year, $15-million deal.

With these financial restrictions in place, it’ll be intriguing to see who the Brewers ultimately decide to trot out to first base on the first day of the season next spring.