Non-Tender Deadline Day: Final Predictions for Brewers' Key Decisions

We won't waste undue time talking about the arbitration cases of William Contreras or Devin Williams today. Each is important, in its way, because while everyone falls in love with MLB Trade Rumors's projections of arbitration salaries each October, the reality is that those projections reflect only one possible midpoint in a range of potential outcomes. Contreras is projected to make $7.6 million in 2025, but that could easily be $6.5 million or $9 million. It depends on how eager each party is to strike a deal before an arbitration hearing; whether either party is interested in a long-term extension; and, possibly, how well each side argues its case before an arbitration panel. Williams's forecast calls for him to earn $7.7 million, but that could be $8.5 million without stirring any surprise for me. These margins are large enough to matter, because the Brewers are on a budget.

The team might even agree to terms with Williams today, in order to head off any tension or confusion about his price tag. That would make him easier to trade, and give them cost certainty on the placeholding closer until they do move him. It's much less likely that they strike a deal with Contreras right away, though, and no newsworthy agreement—like an extension—is going to come to fruition Friday. We can safely set those two aside, for now.

More interesting, by far, are the cases of the other six remaining arbitration-eligible Brewers. They began the offseason with 10 such players, including Williams and Contreras, but they soon cut Jake Bauers and Bryse Wilson, so those two no longer factor in. For those who do, let's consider their possible earning power, and how the team might approach their decision on each.

Hoby Milner, LHP
The most likely player to be non-tendered in this group is Milner, which should be bittersweet for many. Bringing the funk from the left side, the lanky Milner has been a steady and welcome presence in the clubhouse the last three years, as well as often delivering strong medium-leverage relief work. He's projected to make $2.7 million via arbitration, though, and while a team desperate for a solid southpaw might be willing to pay that, the Brewers aren't that kind of team. They figure to have Bryan Hudson, Jared Koenig, and whichever of DL Hall and Aaron Ashby don't win a place in the rotation, making Milner expendable. A trade is possible, but his excess value at his projected price is so negligible that it's more likely the team lets him seek his next fortune on his own terms.

Aaron Civale, RHP
While his projected $8-million salary is by no means untenable, nor is it a no-brainer. This is where I suspect there might be a surprising move coming. Civale would be a bummer of a non-tender, but if the team believes as much as they seem to in their remaining starting depth, a trade could be in the offing. Much like the one in which they sent Hunter Renfroe to the Angels a few years ago, this would be a deal for non-premium pieces, but that need not mean they wouldn't get value from the return. If any player is a barometer of the team's confidence about their spending power this winter, it's Civale. I think he finishes the day on another roster.

Joel Payamps, RHP
Payamps isn't much better than Milner, really, and he's projected to make $2.8 million himself. It's not like the team is starved for good righty relievers, either. Still, I think this will be a case in which the two sides strike a preemptive deal. The Brewers might inform Payamps and his agent that they're unwilling to go through the arbitration process and end up paying more than $3 million, but that they'd be happy to sign and keep him for something like $2.5 million. If the player is amenable to that, they can all sidestep the unenjoyable arbitration process. If he's not, they might proceed with the non-tender.

Eric Haase, C
Don't lose sight of the way the Brewers throttled back Contreras's workload behind the plate late in the season. After starting 93 of the first 122 games behind the plate, Contreras started just 26 of the final 40 there. Part of the reason was an opening at DH. Part of it was that Contreras needed a bit more rest and protection. However, another part of it was that Haase and Gary Sánchez were better defenders at catcher than he was, at that stage of the season. Sánchez is gone, but Haase is still here, and he's only projected for $1.8 million in earnings next year—with a pretty low ceiling, you'd think.

It's possible the team wants to go the fully cheap route to fill the backup catcher gig, the way they did when they moved on from Victor Caratini last winter and signed Haase for $1 million in December. That would fit not only with their general approach to the position, but the hopes everyone continues to hold that Jeferson Quero could be ready to help them by midseason. In that case, they'd non-tender Haase. This one might go similarly to Payamps, but I think they do ultimately retain him. The market for even complementary catchers is just brutal right now.

Nick Mears, RHP
The MLB Trade Rumors projection only has Mears getting $900,000. I might bet the over on that, but it won't be by much, and remember, the league minimum is now $760,000. The gap between what he's likely to earn and what they'd have to pay even if they gave the job to a wholly untested rookie makes tendering Mears a contract a no-brainer. He might put it all together and become a monster in 2025. If he doesn't, he'll be easy to cut in May, with little lost along the way.

Trevor Megill, RHP
Multiple candidates exist for the role of closer, if and when the Brewers trade Williams, but Megill surely has a leg up. As closers go, he'll be dirt-cheap, at roughly $2 million. There's little to think about here, either. The team will giddily tender Megill a contract.

The moves I'm guessing at here could create substantial new financial flexibility for the Brewers, who will also have plenty of open roster space if they go this route. Last year, the team traded for Bauers on the occasion of this deadline, and they might well acquire another player whose team doesn't want to tender them a deal, looking to check another box near the bottom end of the roster. One way or another, there will be news today. We'll know a bit more about the team's expectations, their outlook on various players, and their wherewithal for this winter after the deadline slides by.