Pitchers Have Already Learned How to Attack Jackson Chourio

Jackson Chourio is 20 games into his big-league career, and his results so far have been mixed. The 20-year-old phenom made an immediate impact on both sides of the ball throughout his first week in the majors, but has since fallen on harder times. Chourio entered Wednesday hitting .218/.271/.385, for a well-below-average 82 wRC+.

Slash lines can still change dramatically from day to day this early in the season, so results do not mean much yet. What matters more is the process, which has also been a mixed bag for Chourio.

When he has produced, it’s been a product of his elite tools. Chourio's excellent bat speed and raw strength have already produced four home runs, and his speed has helped him post a 16% infield hit rate on ground balls, more than double the league average.

He’s also shown solid pitch recognition. Two of Chourio’s four homers have come against breaking balls. Last Monday, he recognized a two-strike changeup, waited back, and launched it off the top of the wall in left field.

What he lacks is a refined approach. Laying off outside pitches has been a struggle for Chourio, whose 34% chase rate is several ticks higher than the MLB average of 28.4%.

That aggressiveness has made him vulnerable against breaking balls low and away. In contrast to his two homers on hanging sliders, breaking balls below the belt have rendered Chourio helpless, dragging his wOBA against such pitches down to .242.

None of this is worrisome for Chourio’s long-term outlook. Facing big-league pitching is a different beast than hitting at any level of the minors. Most young hitters find themselves having to fine-tune their swing decisions accordingly. Chourio’s exceptional pitch recognition and ability to punish mistakes already give him a leg up as he faces a learning curve.

It will still be a bumpy ride, though. Pitchers have already figured out how to exploit Chourio’s weaknesses, which will limit his offensive production until he makes his first round of adjustments.

Opponents know that Chourio is vulnerable against breaking balls down and away, and have already made it the foundation of their game plan against him. An eye-opening 41.8% of the pitches Chourio has seen have been breaking balls, the fourth-highest rate of any qualified hitter. Pitchers are hammering him off the outer third with soft stuff.

The approach has become more vivid in some of Chourio’s recent plate appearances. Michael King spammed him with sweeping sliders well off the plate last week during his no-hit bit. Chourio went 0-for-3 against King, with a pair of strikeouts on sweepers in the left-handed batter’s box.

Jared Jones threw six sliders to Chourio out of seven pitches on Monday night, generating four swinging strikes.

Pitchers have figured out how to neutralize Chourio just 20 games into his big-league career. Despite continuing to have a game or two each week that flashes brilliance, his OPS since Apr. 8 is .540. He's already shown the vital capacity to adjust, but it may take some time for his approach to catch up to his tools.