Should The Brewers Extend Adrian Houser?

To understand, we should look at Adrian Houser's tenure with the team.

Houser came to Milwaukee as part of the Carlos Gomez trade – along with Josh Hader, Brett Phillips, and Domingo Santana. He’s the last of that return to arrive in Milwaukee. However, the Brewers got a year-plus of Mike Moustakas splitting time between second and third base. The return for Hader included William Contreras, prospect Robert Gasser, and reliever Joel Payamps.

He had a brief cup of coffee with the Crew in 2015, then spent large chunks of 2016 and 2017 on the disabled list. He returned in 2018, and starting in 2019, he became a solid #4/#5 starter for the Crew behind Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Freddy Peralta. Of course, he posted a complete game shutout in that timeframe, something the aces haven’t done. Even though he started 2023 on the disabled list, it wasn’t an arm injury this time.

Over his career with the Brewers, he’s had a 3.97 ERA, good enough to post an ERA+ of 106, with a FIP of 4.24. In his last two full seasons, he’s given up far fewer home runs than in 2019 and 2020. He was slated to work out of the bullpen this year but took a rotation spot due to injuries to Woodruff and Aaron Ashby.

If one thing has been a common thread, it’s been injuries the last two years. Woodruff, Peralta, and Ashby have spent time on the IL in addition to Houser. The Brewers have had to turn to Jason Alexander, Janson Junk, and Colin Rea to fill in. While neither was completely awful, Alexander is on the 60-day IL, Junk’s first (and only) outing so far was rough, and Rea has shown that while he’s solid, he can give up a few gopher balls.

Keep in mind the high likelihood that Burnes and Woodruff may be traded this coming offseason. That will affect the team’s depth – even if they have pitchers with a year or two of MLB experience under their belt. Wade Miley could be a free agent due to a $10 million mutual option for 2024 – and he’s been pitching like an ace.

But there is another factor. Houser has a proven track record of being a solid contributor. There’s something to be said for having known commodities on the team, especially when a lot of turnover is projected. After the fallout from the Josh Hader trade, the Brewers have been working to improve their mindfulness of the clubhouse atmosphere – as evidenced by the “lunch dates” players are having.

Houser’s comps make it a little harder to nail down a good extension. His IL stints could be costly, but when he is out there, he is solid and can put up a spectacular outing.

So, what should an extension for Houser look like? Given the nature of the comps from Baseball reference, which range from contemporaries barely in arbitration like Zach Plesac and Jamie Barria to late 1980s two-year wonder Mike Dunne to Negro League pitchers Bill Gatewood and Eugene Smith, it’s hard to ballpark. Tyler Glasnow may be the best bet, but he reportedly will get $25 million in 2024. That won’t happen in one year for Houser, but offering $5 million a year for five years would make sense. 

Sounds expensive? Probably, but if the Brewers have learned anything from the Hader trade and the spate of rotation injuries for the past couple of years, reliable starting pitching and good fits in the clubhouse are things you can’t have too much of.