Should The Chicago Cubs, Or The Milwaukee Brewers, Be The 2025 NL Central Favorite?

After 162 games, to finish in the double digits ahead of your closest divisional competitor would signify a hefty gap to close. The Brewers have lost one of their stalwarts from 2024, Willy Adames, while the Cubs have added a top 10 offensive player in Kyle Tucker. Amidst various other moves and the upcoming talent from their respective farm systems, who should consider themselves in a better position for the coming season? Let's take a look!

The Big Offseason Additions/Departures
Kyle Tucker’s acquisition for his final season of arbitration was a real statement of intent from the Cubs that they’re ready to close the gap in 2025. Tucker has a Gold Glove Award as recently as 2022, alongside a World Series ring. His offensive performances last year in just 78 games, with an OPS just shy of 1.000, were monstrous and led to almost five WAR in just half a season of games. He’s a real needle mover. To make room for him, the Cubs traded Cody Bellinger and Isaac Paredes, two proven MLB performers who have prodigious home run outputs when healthy.

While Tucker is projected for 5 WAR in 2025 (and could push this closer to 6 if he remains healthy), Bellinger and Paredes are projected for 2.7 WAR and 3.9 WAR, respectively, within their new environments. That's not to disparage the trade, which upgrades the Cubs in the outfield, but a lot of the increase in on-field production and wins may come from the clubhouse leader, Matt Shaw's performances at third base (more to come), and perhaps Kyle Tucker's presence in the clubhouse.

The Brewers lost two of their signature players from their success in the 2020s. Willy Adames and his 30+ home run and 110+ RBI bat are gone from shortstop, while Devin Williams has been traded to the Yankees. In return, they have Nestor Cortes in their starting rotation and Caleb Durbin as an option on the infield as an MLB-ready prospect likely to cover second and third base.

The bullpen will likely cope admirably without Williams as it did for much of 2024, with Trevor Megill, Bryan Hudson, and Jared Koenig providing unheralded high-quality out of the pen. Replacing Adames power, however, may be more reliant on internal developments than external signings. Projecting a genuinely healthy season for Christian Yelich and Garrett Mitchell on top of further steps forward from Jackson Chourio may be unrealistic. It remains to be seen if a dip in those home runs from Adames (in what already appeared to be an over-performing offense) could derail the 2025 season. However, there is a belief that defensively, the Brewers' infield could be even better in the coming season.

Have The Cracks Been Filled?
It seems fair that both sides have filled the gaps on their roster to a respectable, if unspectacular, level for 2025. The Brewers currently would expect to see a lot of Caleb Durbin on the infield to replace Adames, and you can expect solid defense with consistent, niggly at-bats and great bat-to-ball skills, although with questions over his in-game power. 

The Brewers' rotation took a beating last year, and the increased depth from the return of Brandon Woodruff and the trade for Cortes should give them a higher floor. Woodruff will be one of those upon whom the Brewers hope to return to his old form, but his surgery hasn’t got a pretty track record, and even league-average production may be the best outcome they can hope for.

The Cubs have addressed the shoddy defensive catching that hampered them last year, with poor quality framing and an inability to hold runners from rampancy on the base paths. In league with Brice Turang, Elly De La Cruz, and more, this is a must, and Carson Kelly should help with that.

The bullpen looks more formidable already this year, with Porter Hodge's breakout at the end of 2024. However, it may still be a quality arm shy of being considered “strong.” As in the OOPSY graphic above, the Cubs bullpen is predicted to be league average, but they have the salary space to add one of the remaining high-leverage arms and catapult them into the top 10.

Neither side has turned a weakness into a strength this offseason, but they have sufficiently covered up the cracks to at least get by.

Are Reinforcements On The Way?
Matt Shaw is the big name here for the Cubs. With a currently open path to the third base role on Opening Day, Shaw is projected for a .250/.319/.410 line in 2025 and 2.2 WAR from Steamer. With a high degree of potential outcomes from the rookie, how he adjusts to the major league level will be crucial to the Cubs' standings at the end of the year. A good defensive player with a strong hit tool and powerful impact, he’s a dark horse for Rookie of the Year in 2025.

Moises Ballesteros is a little further away based purely on his defensive skill set behind the plate as a catcher. The bat for a 19/20-year-old is incredible with a ton of thump, but until he can improve his bread and butter behind the plate (or move to first base), he’ll not be called up, barring an emergency. I can see him being a post-All-Star break promotion at this point, and he’ll be one to watch out for down the stretch if the Cubs season goes to plan.

For the Brewers, Jacob Misiorowski is an enigmatic player. Showcasing a fastball with outrageous qualities, his lack of command will determine whether he can stick as a starter or if he's destined for the bullpen. If he can stick as a starter, he could be promoted part-way through 2025, and anything close to league-average control could make him a top-20 starting pitcher in the league. If it stays where it is, he'll likely be an elite high-leverage arm at the back end of the Brewers bullpen.

As far as offensive upgrades go, there isn’t much to choose from for the Brewers. Jeferson Quero is a fantastic defensive catcher and a solid bat but isn’t necessarily a big addition given the dominance of William Contreras behind the plate. Tyler Black showed some regression in the power department in 2024, while Cooper Pratt, Mike Boeve and Brock Wilken all have work-ons in the upper minors that may keep them off the roster all season, though all three have the chance to push through Double A and fast-track their way into consideration. They have plenty of bullpen help (*cough* Craig Yoho *cough*) that could fit in high leverage situations, but that's not necessarily an area of need on the current roster.

So Who Tops The Table?
The Brewers finished 10 games ahead of the Cubs in 2024, but in reality the gap was probably closer to that of a seven game one (backed up by the Pythagorean standings). When you consider the Matt Shaw/Kyle Tucker upgrades and the loss of Adames and his 112 RBI, the gap is getting very very close.

The deciding factor, in my personal opinion, will be one of two things: 

How many appearances, and of what quality, can the Brewers get from Christian Yelich and Garrett Mitchell. If they can stay healthy, and find the form they showed in 2024, the offensive worries will be of no concern; and

What level of performance can Matt Shaw bring to the table? We’ve seen with rookies (as recently as with Pete Crow-Armstrong and Jackson Chourio) that there may be an adjustment period to the caliber of pitching in the majors. How long that takes for Shaw, who’s bat has translated at every level of the minors with relative ease, albeit there are some pitch recognition related red flags in the profile below. His performance will go a long way in deciding the Cubs' fate this season..

Given the recent history of success with whatever squad they’ve cobbled together, I would give the Brewers the slight edge in this comparison. The Cubs are perhaps the more likely team to reach a 95 win season if everything goes right, but the Brewers history of outperforming their odds and getting the most out of their players, for me, gives them a better shot of reaching the 90 win plateau.

Who do you think has the advantage going into 2025? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!

NB: As always, a special thanks to TJstats for allowing me to use his graphics.