Unlocking More Power Internally Will Be Key for 2025 Brewers Offense

One of the main questions regarding the Brewers' offseason was how they would replace the power output of the departing Willy Adames. With spring training now in full swing, the answer is in: they didn't—at least, not externally.

Adames launched a career-best 32 home runs last year, in 688 plate appearances. Scaling their aggregate playing time to that same sample size, ZiPS projects the in-house replacements Oliver Dunn, Caleb Durbin, and Andruw Monasterio to combine for just 12 long balls. Subbing that trio for Adames on the 2024 Brewers would have dropped them from ranking 16th in home runs and 18th in ISO to 25th and 23rd, respectively.

Last year's lineup had a scrappy identity but hit for just enough power to be a solid offense, finishing 10th in baseball with a 104 wRC+. Any step back in that department is unacceptable for a contending team; it's the chief concern with the roster about to take shape.

While the Brewers could still swing a trade or scoop up one of the remaining free-agent infielders, at this point, nobody who would meaningfully improve this team's power output is walking through the door. That leaves Milwaukee reliant on internal improvement.

The good news is that the young Brewers lineup features ample raw power. The bad news is that it hasn't been realized in games by most of these players, and the organization has a spotty track record of developing hitters over the last decade. That makes the 2025 lineup challenging to project. The Brewers could feasibly hit for above-average power, but they could just as easily be among the most punchless offenses in baseball.

With the exceptions of Brice Turang and Sal Frelick, nearly every position features some raw pop. Even with those two combining for 1,142 plate appearances last year, the Brewers still ranked 16th in average bat speed and 10th in fast swing rate, and they're returning up to seven hitters with an average bat speed of at least 73 mph.

There are two standouts who should be hitting for significantly more power than they have so far. William Contreras and Garrett Mitchell are bat speed darlings, with Contreras making some of the hardest contact in the sport, including baseball's fourth-highest maximum exit velocity in 2024. Because both ran ground ball rates well north of 50% last year, however, Contreras only hit 23 home runs, and Mitchell hit just eight in another injury-truncated campaign.

Mitchell's profile has additional flaws, including his well-documented inability to touch velocity at the top of the zone. On elevated hard pitches, he has a career 50.9% whiff rate and just one non-bunt hit. Whether he realizes his power in games hinges on mitigating these weaknesses. Mitchell spent the offseason training at Driveline Baseball, where he focused on working behind the ball to improve his timing and open a wider contact window for pulling balls in the air.

Dunn also falls into this category, albeit more loosely. His 75.2-mph average bat speed barely trailed Mitchell's as the fastest on the team, and he hit 21 homers in Double A in 2023. An untenable 38.5% strikeout rate held him back last year and is the leading reason for his uninspiring 2025 projection. If Dunn can make more contact, his exciting skill set could shine through in his second taste of the big leagues.

A pair of veterans are eyeing resurgent seasons. Christian Yelich was on pace to exceed 20 homers last season before back surgery ended his season shortly after the All-Star break. The longtime left fielder has assured reporters early in camp that he expects to be ready for Opening Day. Rhys Hoskins still hit 26 home runs in a down year, but he's presumably looking to recapture the lower-body mobility that helped him slug 30 long balls in his last healthy season, 2022.

Finally, two less experienced players could continue to grow into more power. Jackson Chourio and Joey Ortiz emerged as valuable regulars in their rookie campaigns, and how close they get to their ceilings as sophomores will be key determiners in how far this year's team goes.

Chourio left the yard 21 times last year, but he's hardly a finished product as he enters his age-21 season. He launched the Brewers' longest home run of the year (a 449-foot blast off the American Family Field video board in August), and his quick hands fuel above-average bat speed and impressive plate coverage. Ortiz hit seven homers through June and reached a 77th-percentile maximum exit velocity, but lingering complications from a midseason neck injury and an overly passive approach limited him to a .345 slugging percentage over the season's final three months.

While it's more realistic to hope only a couple of them get there, there are reasons to believe each of Contreras, Chourio, and Hoskins could reach 30 home runs, with others not far behind. That affords the Brewers multiple permutations by which they can hit for sufficient power.

Whether enough of that internal development actually occurs is another story. Backfilling Adames's output will be a group effort, and enough must go right to make it happen. Time will tell if the Brewers made a worthwhile gamble by not investing in a more direct and accomplished replacement.