When Brewers Add Starting Pitcher at MLB Trade Deadline, Brandon Sproat Should Head to Bullpen

Things just keep finding a way to go wrong for Brandon Sproat. It's not always the same way, but there's always a way. Sproat made it through (technically) a quality start Monday night in San Francisco, surrendering three runs in six innings. It was just the fourth time this year that he's gotten at least 18 outs in a game, and it was one of his five or six best starts of the season. Even then, though, he only struck out five, and he walked three, and the Brewers lost 3-0. 

It's all becoming familiar. Sproat consistently downplays any hum of adrenaline fueling his starts, but in every outing, he comes out running hot and then sees his velocity drop significantly. On Monday night, he averaged 97.0 MPH with his four-seam fastball in the first inning, but by the fifth (94.2) and sixth (94.4), the heat was cooling off. For the year, Sproat's average heater in the first inning is 97.6 MPH, good for the 94th percentile among starters. In the fifth, it's 95.3, which dips out of the top quartile of the league.

More importantly (and perhaps relatedly), Sproat too often finds himself working extremely hard early in starts, because he doesn't induce chases outside the zone much at all and doesn't miss enough bats when hitters do swing. In fact, here are the only four pitchers with at least 80th-percentile fastball velocity but an average or worse whiff rate and a chase rate in or below the 20th percentile.

Despite throwing hard and having a sweeper, a curveball and a slider that all rate as above-average based on their raw characteristics, Sproat simply isn't forcing bad swing decisions or piling up whiffs. The other three guys who have this problem, by no coincidence, are all relievers.

In the long run, Sproat still has a chance to help the Brewers as a starter. This season feels a bit like Corbin Burnes's 2019: a lot of teases, a lot of glimpses at huge potential, but lousy production. The team has a good chance to successfully develop him as a starter next season and beyond. For now, though, this confluence of weaknesses—the tendency to run out of steam after hot starts; an inability to get batters to expand the zone; and underperformance in terms of swing-and-miss—cries out for a change. Sproat needs to move to the bullpen down the stretch.

That underscores the importance of the Brewers' quest to add a starting pitcher before next week's MLB trade deadline. They need the depth, anyway, but Sproat makes it clearer how badly they need it each time he takes the mound. Even assuming Kyle Harrison returns rapidly and without issue, the rotation could use another mid-tier arm behind him and Jacob Misiorowski. Logan Henderson, Shane Drohan and Robert Gasser are fine back-end options, and the Brewers have several relievers and Triple-A options who can give them length. Sproat should move into short relief and streamline his arsenal for the rest of this year. The front office, meanwhile, should add a starter who fits in front of the likes of Henderson and Drohan in the pecking order, making it easier to move Sproat out without worrying about a sudden lack of readiness to cover the requisite innings.

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