Why Brewers Shouldn’t Chase Willy Adames In Free Agency

Willy Adames's time in Milwaukee has been an unqualified success. Acquiring him from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for JP Feyereisen and Drew Rasmussen (both of whom have had significant injury woes since) was a master stroke on the part of David Stearns and company. In his career, Adames has 150 home runs, 51 stolen bases and a 109 OPS+, all as a premium defensive shortstop. His 21.5 career WAR is an impressive number, but Adames has been more than numbers can calculate for the Brewers. He’s been the heart and soul of this franchise since he joined them in 2021--a fan favorite on and off the field and a leader of men in the clubhouse. His relentless optimism was infectious among the Brewers, proving pivotal in extracting the most out of the plethora of talented youngsters on the Brewers roster.

Mark Attanasio made a comment last offseason about the Brewers offering Adames a nine-figure extension that was rejected as he bet on himself. He won that bet over the course of 2024, producing a career year at bat to propel himself forward in terms of value. That extension offer was likely the extent of what the Brewers can afford, and his market is likely to be substantially greater this offseason.

Market Value
Adames is the best shortstop hitting free agency this season, which allows a lot of leverage in negotiations. Ha-Seong Kim looks to be Adames's closest competitor. After them, the highest-caliber player is Miguel Rojas. Kim has had a turbid, injury-plagued year, compared with Adames hitting career highs in home runs, walks and stolen bases, widening the gap between the two.

Adames's defense did drop off during the season (something we’ll come to later), but his persona, his performance at the plate and his strong arm (combined with his market position) should enable him to get around 6 years and $150 million, based on deals for the likes of Dansby Swanson, Trevor Story, Marcus Semien, and Javier Báez in recent offseasons.

The Warning Signs
Unfortunately, of late, big shortstop deals haven’t quite gone to plan. From Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts and Swanson to the quite shocking drop-off from Báez, they haven’t tended to age well. Injuries have played some part with Bogaerts and Correa, while the bats haven’t really come to life for Swanson and Báez.

The sad truth is that, as players age, their reaction times slow down--meaning they need to swing earlier, and therefore make swing decisions earlier. Some of this can be made up for with experience, but it will often bring about a decline in ball/strike recognition. Such recognition isn’t a strength of Adames, despite his improved walk rate this year. 

Adames’s swing length is already the fifth-longest in baseball, meaning his decision-making process is already happening a bit earlier than most other hitters'. He also doesn’t shorten his swing with two strikes, and despite better overall swing decisions this year, it’s a ticking time bomb for him.

Eventually, and potentially within the next two seasons, Adames may become a strikeout machine who struggles to make enough contact to access his home-run power with extreme chase rates. He won’t be as aggressive as Báez, but it probably won’t be pretty.

Then there are the defensive struggles that popped up this season, which may prevent him from playing shortstop next season even if he did stick with the Brewers. 

In nearly every conceivable defensive metric, Adames fell off a cliff in 2024. Outs Above Average still regards him as average, but other fielding metrics have questioned the errors that piled up in the second half, as well as his overall range. The defensive decline appears to be happening before our eyes.

It removes the floor from which Adames accrues his value over a season, and puts a lot of pressure on a bat which is unlikely to age well alongside it. If he can't address the defensive issues quickly, that contract could turn bad fast.

So Why Shouldn’t The Brewers Go Big For Their Star Shortstop?
I would happily agree to a contract of six years and $150 million for the production Adames has given the Brewers since his arrival. Combining the incredible defensive performance for a strong floor, while adding thump in big moments with the bat is a rare combination from such a premium position. The problem is it’s very unlikely that either the bat or the defense will hold up even past two years into this contract.

Adames will likely be a solid enough defender at third base toward the latter end of his new contract, with a big arm from the left side, but that range will continue to fall off. However, those errors could be here to stay, in which case he becomes a bit of a liability defensively, removing the floor for his value.

The Brewers also have a lot of infield talent in their farm system, although most of it is a year or more away. From Brock Wilken, Mike Boeve, and Cooper Pratt to the 18-year-old Luis Pena and Jesus Made, locking in a veteran on a six-year deal impinges on their prospects of playing time when they are ready in 2026 or 2027.

I love Adames. I Love what he’s brought to Milwaukee. But it would be folly to expect the same level of production over the next six seasons as the Brewers have gotten in their first four years from Adames. The defense is dropping off, the bat will likely follow soon. If he were forced to settle for a four-year, $100-million contract, it may become more feasible, but unfortunately, I can’t see the market trending that way.

The Brewers got the best years out of Adames. Now it’s time to let him go, before those prized memories turn sour.

What do you think of Willy Adames value on the open market? Can you see any way he returns to Milwaukee? Would you even want him on a six year deal? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!