Why Haven't the Brewers Signed Rhys Hoskins Already?

There's plenty to like about Rhys Hoskins, especially for a Milwaukee Brewers team needing a reliable bat. Plugging a career 125 OPS+ hitter into a lineup is a no-brainer for almost any team, and this one has averaged an .822 OPS with 28 home runs in his last two full seasons. That would have ranked him first on the 2023 Brewers in homers, and second in OPS among qualified hitters. One player doesn't solidify a lineup, but it can have quite the impact in the middle of an order.

Hoskins's right-handed thunder has led him to a .921 career OPS against lefties, including slugging percentages of .558 and .570 in 2022 and 2021, respectively. He also draws walks at a terrific rate. His lifetime 13.5% walk rate would have led the Brewers last season and ranked 13th in all of MLB. He isn't all roses. Hoskins's defense at first base is below-average at best. However, his offensive profile and production are worth the dip in fielding value. After all, the Brewers survived Rowdy Tellez's defense over there for a couple of seasons.
 

Where will the top remaining MLB free agents sign?

FOX Sports' @RowanKavner listed potential landing spots for the top 10 still left on the board ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/pcaRCADdGI

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) January 22, 2024

What is keeping GM Matt Arnold from signing Hoskins immediately?

Concerns About Hoskins's ACL Recovery
Although pro athletes have the best surgery and rehabilitation services at their disposal, returning from serious, long-term injuries can create doubts about an athlete's return. Hoskins's ACL tear last year in spring training knocked him out for 2023, and while all indications are that he's ready to roll, teams like the Brewers might not fancy the risk. 

Will he be the same player he has been? Will he reinjure the knee and miss lots of time? Will he suffer other issues compensating for the knee? Is his power going to be sapped? For a club like Milwaukee, which budgets its expenditures more tightly than others, the uncertainty can be too much to overcome, depending on the price. Hoskins has other suitors, so the Brewers can't rely on signing him to a low-risk, high-reward deal.

Money Talks...and It's Too Loud
MLB Trade Rumors predicted Hoskins would get $18 million per season. Considering the Brewers have first base options, even if they aren't the sexy kind, it's difficult to see them going that high, particularly with the risk factor. With Scott Boras as Hoskins's agent, you know he'll look to squeeze every penny out of any team. And with reports saying teams like the Chicago Cubs and Toronto Blue Jays have interest, there is money to be had. If the average annual value remains north of $15 million, the Brewers probably would only be tempted if it was a one-year contract.

It's believed Milwaukee wants to keep payroll around the same mark as in 2023, where $120 million would bump up against the ceiling in 2024. FanGraphs's Roster Resource currently has the Brewers at about a $105 million projected payroll. Without a move or two to get some salary off the books, Hoskins probably isn't the "one move" to reach their limit. Milwaukee should be willing to spend more this season with Corbin Burnes and (likely) Willy Adames's salaries erased heading into 2025, but unfortunately, the fans aren't in control of the money yet.

Forget the Money, the Years are the Problem
No matter the cost, one-year deals are rarely hard to swallow for any club. However, with multiple interested teams and Hoskins turning 31 in March, a two- or three-year offer is likely necessary. All things considered, Hoskins probably wants to focus on a "big" deal, compared to a one-year prove-it option. That could be the tipping point to get him to Milwaukee, if Arnold threw down a three-year deal on the table for slightly less than the predicted $18 million per season. But would they do that?

It seems more likely Milwaukee hasn't been mentioned in legitimate rumors for Hoskins because of their unwillingness to go multiple years. On top of the risk of guaranteed money for uncertain production, there are several corner bats in their farm system the organization might not want to be blocked. Unless the Crew got creative - say, offering a two-year contract with an opt-out after the first season - the years might be the biggest holdup.

The Third Money-Related Complication: Diamond Sports Group Bankruptcy
While the Brewers are already at a disadvantage with their TV deal, the demise of Diamond Sports Group, which owns Bally Sports, throws more uncertainty into Milwaukee's revenue problem. Uncertainty about whether a short-term solution will get worked out, or better yet, a long-term option, likely puts a pause on significant deals for the Crew. Other clubs with Bally as their broadcast TV partner are feeling the same uneasiness.

Big news this morning that Amazon is acquiring a minority stake in Diamond Sports Group.

The regional sports network filed for bankruptcy last year, putting local media rights for 37 teams across the NBA, MLB, and NHL in jeopardy.

Now, customers can watch games on Amazon Prime. pic.twitter.com/959nnLRyCO

— Joe Pompliano (@JoePompliano) January 17, 2024

For the Brewers, especially, cost certainty has long been a staple of the organization's ability to compete despite lower payrolls than many of their competitors. Unless or until MLB takes care of the problem, it might force Milwaukee to hold tight on any move beyond a few million or one year. If the league can work out a deal with Amazon Prime that nets Milwaukee some additional coin and steadiness, that could open the floodgates - at least to a noticeable trickle - for the Brewers to spend a bit more.

Hoskins Waiting on the Cubs
Many experts think that Cody Bellinger remains Chicago's top priority, with Hoskins as a backup option offensively. Should that be true, or even considered, it would serve Hoskins well to wait and see if the big-market Cubs get desperate and pony up. Of course, they could afford to acquire both players.

Conversely, if Chicago drops out of the bidding, it gives hope to other interested clubs. One might be willing to up the ante at that point, knowing they aren't competing with Chicago on the money side. Perhaps if Bellinger makes a decision in the next week or so, we can all get more clarity on Hoskins's market and potential landing spots.

Maybe the Brewers or Hoskins Aren't Looking to Match Up
It sounds silly, but the Brewers simply might not want Hoskins as part of their plans. Many of us are still determining what Milwaukee is actually doing this offseason. Perhaps, as noted above, they are looking to fast-track some young bats for first base, which could include Tyler Black this season. Or maybe they genuinely like Jake Bauers as the top choice in 2024. It's unclear if Arnold plans to push for another NL Central crown with Burnes in tow or if it's a soft reset, saving money and hoping for the best out of the young and inexperienced group.

Meanwhile, it could be Hoskins who isn't keen on a partnership. Whether it's location, prestige, team direction or plain old money, sometimes players cross clubs off their list before any conversations begin. It's difficult to say what reputation the organization now has, after players have griped a bit over the past couple of seasons.

Hopefully, something breaks soon on the Brewers' roster front. Spring training is quickly approaching, and the lineup appears less than daunting for opposing pitchers. What do you think is the biggest holdup preventing a deal between Milwaukee and Hoskins? What would you be willing to offer if it is money or years as the obstacle? No one can argue his potential impact, but there are questions surrounding a possible contract. Otherwise, all signs would have already pointed to Hoskins in a Brewers uniform on Opening Day.