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    What on Earth Are the Brewers Doing This Winter?


    Jason Wang

    In an offseason filled with intrigue, marquee transactions, and mistaken private flights, one team has yet to significantly move the needle in a positive direction. With things as they are, will the Brewers even be serious contenders in 2024?

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    It's been a strange offseason, so far. On that much we can all agree. Our question here is, should we be worried about that? For a conciliatory and hopeful take, check out Ryan Pollak's piece earlier this morning. Me? I'm less sanguine.

    Milwaukee hasn’t been entirely silent, but the few major-league roster additions the organization has made have been:

    • Signing Colin Rea to a one-year deal
    • Bringing back Wade Miley on a one-year deal
    • Signing free agent RHP Joe Ross, who hasn’t pitched in MLB since 2021 and is coming off of his second Tommy John surgery
    • Acquiring LHP Bryan Hudson from the Dodgers in exchange for LHP Justin Chambers, an 18-year old prospect drafted in 2023, and a player to be named later or cash

    Sure, they also gave Jackson Chourio a monumental extension and added him and Bradley Blalock to the 40-man roster, but compared to what their division rivals in Cincinnati and St. Louis have done, the lack of subsequent moves is concerning. Furthermore, Hudson took the 39th spot on the 40-man roster, so the team doesn’t have much room for new faces without having to say goodbye to some old ones.

    The Brewers were never going to be mentioned as being “strongly interested” in the premium names like Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, or Jung Hoo Lee, but there was hope that they’d be in the running for some of the cheaper (yet still effective) bats like Mitch Garver or Jeimer Candelario. In reality, they’ve yet to acquire a single position player at the major-league level, let alone an impactful one. 

    For a team who’s won their division three times in the past six years and come in second twice in the same span, one could make the argument that they don’t need to get any better to remain ahead of their peers. Unfortunately, the other teams have seemingly had enough of being underdogs. 

    With a nine-game lead over their closest division competitor in 2023, Milwaukee is a step ahead of the rest, even with these moves. However, with the losses of Brandon Woodruff, Mark Canha, and Carlos Santana, their competition hasn't just gotten better. The Crew themselves have arguably gotten worse. The Brewers are allegedly in hot pursuit of bringing back Santana, but if a nearly-38-year-old first baseman is poised to be the biggest signing of the winter, it’s probably not going to be a great year. Additionally, it still wouldn’t be an improvement over last season’s roster.

    As many trick-or-treaters know, most of the good stuff is already taken if you get started too late. While there are still a handful of notable names available (Marcus Stroman, Joc Pederson, Blake Snell, and Cody Bellinger, to name a few), the Brewers’ front office doesn’t seem to be interested in any of them. They really don’t seem interested in anyone under the age of 37. Maybe they end up trading Corbin Burnes, Devin Williams, and/or Willy Adames, but there hasn’t been much active discussion about those moves, either. If the team starts the 2024 season with their roster as is, they may not be the kings of the NL Central much longer.

    The troubling thing, here, is that the team hasn't committed to a direction at all. Trading Houser and Taylor seemed to suggest one direction; acquiring Hudson at the cost of a 2023 draftee seems to suggest another. It's very hard to assign a coherent narrative to this team's winter. They haven't gotten cheaper. They haven't maximized future value. They also haven't gotten better or maximized present value. They seem adrift, and given the ticking clock on Burnes and Adames, that's terrifying.

    Do you think the Brewers have done enough to be competitive postseason competitors next year? What are some other names the team can realistically pursue?

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    I guess I’m just not seeing what’s so confusing about the Brewers offseason.

    The bellwether move to determine the direction of the offseason was always going to be if Burnes was traded and/or what the return was.

    Since that hasn’t happened yet, they’ve done what they always do, turn over a bunch of rocks around the margins of the 40 Man hoping to find a few low key MLB contributors.

    The majority of FA at the 1B/DH spot that is the biggest need for the Brewers are still on the market.

    If one requires a coherent narrative it is that they are playing the middle so they have the flexibility to pursue multiple possibilities in either direction.

    • Like 4
    • Love 1

    They really don’t seem interested in anyone under the age of 37.

    Offseason 40 Man/Trade Acquisitions (2024 Age)

    Wade Miley (37)
    Colin Rea (33)
    Taylor Clarke (31)
    Eric Haase (31)
    Joe Ross (29)
    Jake Bauers (28)
    Bryan Hudson (27)
    Vinny Capra (27)
    Oliver Dunn (26)
    Blake Holub (25)
    Chad Patrick (25)
    Coleman Crow (23)

    • Love 1

    This team is likely to just let their young talent play. 

    My guess is a Santana addition and go play baseball.

    Cincinnati & Baltimore showed last year that a team can win with talented young positional talent and decent to good pitching. I think this is where MKE is entering this season.

    We might not have quite the positional talent of Baltimore, but I like our pitching better. 

    Cincinnati might be slightly ahead of us, as far as prospect development is concerned, but I like our veterans better.

    The Brewers are contenders as is, and will be developing their BLR prospect talent at the same time. 

    • Like 1

    Your list of moves made by division rivals is underwhelming at best. The fact that you list the Cubs “reportedly pursuing” two players as an offseason move after striking out on Ohtani shows you are fretting for the sake of fretting.

    Rea and Miley are as impactful as the Cards moves, so a push in my mind. Pirates? Please. If the Brewers had signed Tellez, you probably wouldn’t be happy. Reds have done a nice job, to be sure. But the reason I worry about Cincinnati is all the young guys they have developed, not the free agents they signed. The only thing the Brewers did really wrong was allowing Woodruff to get injured. They shouldn’t have done that. Bad strategery. 
     

    i hope for a good corner bat, but let’s get to Spring Training and see how they look. 

    • Like 2
    1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

    They really don’t seem interested in anyone under the age of 37.

    Offseason 40 Man/Trade Acquisitions (2024 Age)

    Wade Miley (37)
    Colin Rea (33)
    Taylor Clarke (31)
    Eric Haase (31)
    Joe Ross (29)
    Jake Bauers (28)
    Bryan Hudson (27)
    Vinny Capra (27)
    Oliver Dunn (26)
    Blake Holub (25)
    Chad Patrick (25)
    Coleman Crow (23)

    I think he's referring to the interest in Santana, when there are younger better options out there.  Where's the needle mover in that group?  They gave up arguably their 4th best starter and a 29 year old OF who was a major offensive contributor down the stretch just last season who would have cost maybe $7-8 million this season for a guy who might make a few token starts in August in the minor leagues this year.  They seem intent on relying on guys who didn't impress all that much as rookies to get the bulk of the OF starts and a guy in Chourio who probably needs at least a couple months in AAA.  Bauers as the guy to turn into the 2022 version of Rowdy?  Seriously, a .211 lifetime hitter with a career slugging percentage under .400?

    His point is this team as presently constructed isn't close to a contender much less a team capable of repeating last years' record.  He's right on both counts.  Yeah they have some pieces that they could move at the deadline who'd bring back some value, but they've already surrendered two guys who also could brought back more at the deadline than they did in December.  

    • Like 2
    • Love 1

    Are the moves underwhelming? Sure. But with what they got already, it will still put us in the conversation for the division.

    Let's see what the young guys can do. Maybe they trump whatever signing they could get on the market. 

    Don't want to compare beer to cheese but the Packers ran with their young guys and look how that's turning out. All these guys are ready to break out, they just need a chance in the spotlight.

    • Like 1
    Jake McKibbin
  • Brewer Fanatic Contributor
  • Posted

    I think a big part is we still have no idea how they're filling some of the more obvious gaps on their roster, and if they've truly committed to it. If Jake Bauers breaks out then it's amazing, but that's certainly not the expectation at this point in time. Combined with trading Houser away and losing  what would likely be solid starting innings from a rotation needing depth... I think that's the most confusing for me if they want to keep Burnes and compete

    1 hour ago, JohnBriggs12 said:

     Where's the needle mover in that group? 

    Most of the potential needle moving is going to be dependent on the development of Chourio, Black, Frelick, Mitchell, Wiemer, Turang, Gasser, Rodriguez, Misio, etc plus whatever decision they end up making on Burnes.

    When was the last time the Brewers made a “needle moving” FA signing?

    • Love 1

    St. Louis was in the cellar of this division last season - they needed to completely retool their pitching staff this offseason just to even think of finishing over 0.500, and I don't think what they've done is nearly enough at this point.

     

    Cincinnati has made some moves around the fringes, but they will need to bank on young pitching staying healthy and young position players continuing to develop in order to take another step towards 90 wins.

     

    The Cubs gave a mountain of money to CC to manage a club who has yet to replace its best hitter (Bellinger), best trade acquisition (Candelario), and Opening Day starter (Stroman) from its 2023 team that eeked out a record barely over 0.500.  Besides that, they've done nothing - zilch - squadoosh.  They have to make a series of significant moves just to get back to being fringe contenders.

     

    The Pirates are, well, the Pirates.

     

    I'd argue the moves the Brewers have already made this offseason related to nontender/release of veteran players who collectively had awful 2023 seasons or were too injured to contribute in 2024 have improved a roster that won 92 games last season and won the division.  Canha and Santana are included in the article like they were borderline silver sluggers for the entire 2023 regular season in Milwaukee and their loss is crippling to their offense...they were here two months and it took both close to a month before they started hitting.  Plus, Santana is a likely option to wind up back in Milwaukee at 1B, and adding Chourio to the young OF mix basically leaves Canha without a spot on the field to play with Yelich still in LF.  Woodruff is a loss?  Guessing if the over/under on 2024 innings pitched at the MLB level is 1, most people would bet the under for him at this point.  The holes on this roster that still could use dramatic improvement still have a bunch of free agents at the DH and corner IF positions who haven't signed anywhere else, either....or they could be filled by young Brewer prospects (Gasser, Black on top of Chourio) who may very well be ready for everyday playing time at the MLB level.  

     

     

     

     

    • Like 3

    Think Sveum's post nailed it well.   The key point will be whether Burnes/Williams are traded.   All these moves are independent of that as even if those two are gone the Brewers goal will still be to field a competitive team with hopes of making the playoffs due to their division being so weak.  If they do keep them, well you go from competitive team with a chance to win up to the favorite expecting to win.

    This isn't like the NBA where if you're not 'going for it' you just punt everything and try to lose.  The Brewers stated goals since Stearns has been to be steadily competitive every year, seems that's the route they're going regardless of Burnes/Williams.  These fringe moves are what they would be doing in either route.  They are also very reliant on gameday attendance so a blatant tear down attempt to lose is very unlikely.   

     

    • Like 2
    3 hours ago, tmwiese55 said:

     

    This isn't like the NBA where if you're not 'going for it' you just punt everything and try to lose.  

     

    A great line, one that could be used as a one-sentence primer for some fans.

     

    8 hours ago, sveumrules said:

     

    If one requires a coherent narrative it is that they are playing the middle so they have the flexibility to pursue multiple possibilities in either direction.

    That's a really good explanation as to how things have played out so far.

    Give it another 8days. That one intl guy has to be signed I believe the 11th or they return to their team. Read Arb numbers to be due and exchanged on 11th or 12th as well.  We'll find out the gap on Burnes and Adames what Mil wants to pay and what those 2 want to be paid.  I've said it will affect the trade return with Burnes multiple times.  

    Black to me is part of a hold up(along with Adames] on roster configuration.   How soon will he be added to the everyday lineup and where? What if its 1b? 2b? because Adames was traded?  Aside from Wiemer, Frelick and Mitchell are small sample sizes to add with Chourio no sample size for OF production. Yet all 3 are top 2-24-and 70 prospects I believe upon when taking the ML field.  You have no faith in those rankings, get all the prospect rankings banned. Clearly wrong when you're looking at them. Or just wrong when it involves a Brewer. Turang was another top 85 prospect. 

    Yet here we are boohoo the roster hasn't really been upgraded. The idea exists in your mind that prior to age 30, no young call up can improve 2nd or 3rd year playing.  You gotta wait til after age 30 and 10-20+M AAV FA contracts to be doled out to believe that past performance showing elsewise will continue well in to their 30s.  Thats improving the team.

    Gasser/Miserioski/ Rodriquez  all are SPs that you shouldn't be locking down any FA pitchers beyond 2 years making it harder for them to join the ML team. Peralta-Ashby are under contracts. 

    Keep playing checkers while Front office plays chess.

    6 hours ago, JohnBriggs12 said:

    I think he's referring to the interest in Santana, when there are younger better options out there. 

    If they are looking at Santana as a first baseman, there is one younger, better option in free agency (no, I’m not including Bellinger).

    • Like 1

    To me, the Brewers look like they are preparing a roll of the dice for 2024.

    Keep Burnes for a final run, keep Devin Williams for this offseason, but have Abner Uribe handle the 8th.

    If we're looking at the 40-man, I still see some turnover. Why? Because there are a couple of in-house solutions for a few holes.

    Robert Gasser and Evan McKendry could win spots at the back of the rotation. Tyler Black is arguably a contender to start at third base - does he really have anything left to prove in the minors? There is still ridiculous outfield depth (Frelick, Mitchell, Wiemer, and Chourio are an excellent top four). Yelich can hold down DH, even if the Crew is oddly resistant to moving him to first base (which would solve that problem). Wilken and Quero both could be up in 2024 as well.

    Assuming the Crew signs Santana, this would be the likely 26-man roster on Opening Day:

    cf: Frelick

    c: Contreras

    dh: Yelich

    1b: Santana

    ss: Adames

    rf: Mitchell

    lf: Chourio

    3b: Black

    2b: Turang

    bench: Haase, Monasterio, Wiemer, Miller

    rotation: Burnes, Peralta, Miley, Ross, Rea, Ashby

    bullpen: Williams, Uribe, Payamps, Milner, Megill, Peguero, B. Wilson

     

    Good enough for the division. Then figure the Crew uses Carlos F. Rodriguez, Gasser, and Jacob Misiorowski the way they used Burnes and Woodruff in 2018... (replacing Payamps, Milner, and Peguero), Wilken bumps Santana, Quero bumps Haase... the Crew then looks younger and ready to roll for the next five years.

     



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