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There have been so many tempting opportunities to throw in the towel this year as a Brewers fan. Maybe it was the way the team started off 0-4. Maybe it was the fact that, as recently as May 21st, the Brewers were below .500 and fourth in the NL Central. Or maybe you’re just generally pessimistic. Regardless of where you stand on the spectrum of optimism, it seems less debatable that the team has been less dominant this year than they have been in recent memory.
The team’s playoff odds are currently hovering around the 30% mark, according to FanGraphs, while Baseball Reference provides more optimistic odds of around 40%. In both cases, Milwaukee has less than a coin-flip chance to make the playoffs, setting them up to miss October for just the second time in eight years. Given the current state of the division and the National League, this makes plenty of sense.
The Chicago Cubs have seemed nearly unstoppable all season long, holding a dominant 42-28 record with the second-best run differential in MLB (+104). In addition to the big offseason acquisition of Kyle Tucker, Pete Crow-Armstrong has looked less like a defense-first center fielder and more like an MVP candidate, while Carson Kelly is having the best year of his career on all fronts by far. Even in the face of some starting pitching injuries, the rotation has managed to stay afloat thanks to a great year by Matthew Boyd and a solid year by Jameson Taillon.
The Wild Card picture doesn’t seem much better, as a highly competitive NL West currently occupies two of the three total slots, with the Phillies claiming the final spot. To their credit, the Brewers are just 2.5 games out of the picture, but it won’t be an easy road forward.
The future is even further muddied by the trade deadline, which inconveniently forces teams to classify themselves as buyers or sellers. If they’re willing to take their chances, the Brewers can fork over prospect equity and young talent to give them a better chance to reach the playoff bracket this season. Alternatively, they can trade away some of their impact players and hope that the scheduled bobblehead giveaways are enough to make up for the B-team product that will take the field for the final few months of the season.
The case for selling is clear. In addition to the aforementioned obstacles standing between them and a postseason spot, they do have a few impending free agents who could be valuable assets to contenders. Rhys Hoskins has bounced back after a down year last year, and his 118 OPS+ could be a good fit for any team in need of help at first base. Freddy Peralta has a 2.69 ERA over his first 14 starts and would be an outstanding short-term starter rental. Heck, even Jose Quintana may have some suitors if he’s put on the market. In return, some infield and starting pitching depth would be ideal. The best part would be, at least for the front office, it’d allow the payroll to be cut even lower, something that seems to be a top priority based on the organization’s most recent roster move.
But the Brewers’ hopes aren’t dead just yet. Sure, there has been discourse online about the possibility of Peralta and Hoskins being traded, but the Brewers haven’t demonstrated the same enthusiasm on the topic. Furthermore, although they were in the depths of the NL Central less than a month ago, they’ve managed to claw their way back, and things seem to be moving in the right direction. The pitching staff has combined for a 3.23 ERA, seventh best in MLB. They’ve called up phenom prospect Jacob Misiorowski and plan to make him an integral part of the rotation. The offense still leaves a little to be desired, especially when it comes to certain players, but other stars are starting to bring it back around. Christian Yelich has taken slight steps forward in the past month, Jackson Chourio’s June is looking much better than his May, and Joey Ortiz is almost back to being an acceptable bat. Almost.
Because the Brewers are currently on the fence, the results of the next few weeks will help push them in one direction or the other. Nothing is certain, and the tone of this conversation might change by the start of July. A win streak here or a loss streak there could make or break the season, so while there are still plenty of games left to play, Milwaukee doesn’t have much room for error.
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