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To many fans, trading Willy Adames follows a similar logic to wanting to trade Corbin Burnes. With the team unlikely to increase their spending, retaining Adames in free agency while investing in other talent probably won’t be possible. Furthermore, it may be difficult to justify a longer deal after his offensive slowdown last year. He slashed .217/.310/.407 over 638 plate appearances, equivalent to a 95 OPS+. Nonetheless, his glove was immaculate, and he still has elite barrel and walk rates, so he’ll be able to provide value to many teams, including the Marlins.
They have a pretty questionable shortstop situation, currently slated to start Jon Berti with Vidal Bruján waiting in the wings. Berti was an effective utility piece in 2023, but his ability to play shortstop daily is unproven. Bruján spent most of the year in AAA and posted a decent .839 OPS but has struggled when called up to the major leagues, accumulating -1.6 rWAR over 272 plate appearances in the past three years. They have a few shortstop prospects in the pipeline, namely Jacob Amaya and Yiddi Cappe, but they're a few years away from the show. If they want to return to the postseason sooner rather than later, they’ll need someone more proven, especially in a very competitive NL East division. If it’s clear that the Marlins would appreciate additional help at shortstop, the question then becomes, what can they offer the Brewers?
With the prospect package received in exchange for Burnes, it’s clear that Milwaukee is okay with deferring success for a few years. In its current form, the team is undoubtedly less competitive but has a brighter future than before. One imminent concern might be at first base. The Rhys Hoskins deal is only for two years and includes a mutual option and an opt-out after the first year, which doesn’t seem like a concrete, long-term solution. Tyler Black is expected to spend most of his time at third base, and the team’s only other top first base prospect is Wes Clarke, last seen in AA.
On the other hand, Marlins prospect Jacob Berry is ranked #4 by MLB.com and has an ETA of 2025, meaning he could be ready soon after Hoskins's potential departure. He’s well-rounded and doesn’t break the radar in any area, but he received a 55-grade hit tool from scouts. His AA slash line of .248/.301/.443 and overall performance in the minors hasn’t lived up to the hype, but at 22 years old, he still has a few more years to figure things out.
It could also be useful to have another starting pitcher around these parts. After all, the Brewers lost their two best starters in one offseason. Robert Gasser will probably make his major league debut in 2024. Jacob Misiorowski and Carlos Rodriguez aren’t too far off, but it’d be great to get some more major-league-ready manpower. Lefty Trevor Rogers has seen mixed results as a starter but had an outstanding peak in 2021, posting a 2.64 ERA over 133 innings and placing second for NL Rookie of the Year. Since then, he has struggled quite a bit and was sidelined for most of 2023 with a bicep strain, but the juice is still there. With the prowess of the Brewers' pitching staff, it might take a change of scenery for him to reach those same heights again, and he might not have a place in a talented Marlins rotation.
Ely Sussman wrote a great piece touching on why Adames would be a great fit with the fish. It’s an excellent read if you want to know more about why the Marlins would need his services or are curious to see the trade package that he proposed.
Do you still think the Brewers will trade Adames before Opening Day? If he is traded to the Marlins, what return would leave you satisfied?
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