TooLiveBrew

It's interesting to look at the team splits (found here at BB-Ref.com, scroll up a tad from where the link takes you to see the top of the table). Their OPS w/RISP is actually better than NL-avg., but lower than their OPS w/no runners aboard -- typically, of course, your rates w/RISP will be better than with the bases empty. Additionally, the Brewers' OPS simply with "men on" (.709) is below league-avg. (.725), due to an anemic OPS (.667) with just a runner on 1B. Their OPS w/2 outs & RISP is also pretty bad (.641), but not too far below league-avg. (.681).

In Baseball Prospectus's Baseball Between the Numbers, the authors studied run scoring as it correlated to winning games, and found (not surprisingly) that the single most important thing a team can do is prevent runs from scoring -- runs allowed, not runs scored, had the strongest correlation to winning games. So no, I don't think you're perceiving it incorrectly.

I don't think that's necessarily accurate or fair. I think that they both realize that Jean has been arguably the best SS in the league so far this season (currently leads MLB in WAR (FanGraphs) at the position), and that he has quite a bit of leverage over the course of the next 5+ seasons. I don't mean that I think the Brewers' offer isn't a good or fair one, but I think that it's a bit much to jump to the conclusion that Segura &/or his agent are being unreasonable. If anything, a contract offer this early from the Brewers might have simply caught them off-guard, and they're simply taking their time & considering all angles. I know I wouldn't want my agent to simply settle for the first contract extension I was ever offered. His agent was never quoted as saying they didn't like the offer, just that the contract talks were in extremely early stages.

Sounds Doubled Up In Salt Lake, 12-6 Lalli Homers, Goes 3-for-5 In First Start Since Rejoining Nashville Nashville Sounds http://i.imgur.com/PIPsHda.jpg Khris Davis, archive photo (Mike Strasinger / Nashville Sounds) SALT LAKE CITY - The Salt Lake Bees scored 10 runs over the first three innings en route to a 12-6 victory over the Nashville Sounds on Friday evening at Spring Mobile Ballpark. In his first start since rejoining the Sounds, catcher Blake Lalli went 3-for-5 with a home run to pace Nashville's 12-hit offensive attack. Josh Prince (2-for-4, two doubles) and Khris Davis (2-for-3, two RBI singles) also posted multi-hit efforts for the visitors. The 12 runs match the most allowed by Sounds pitching in a single game this season (third occurrence). Nine of Salt Lake's runs came plateward with two outs in an inning. Salt Lake jumped on the board first, plating four two-out runs against Tyler Thornburg in the bottom of the first inning. After the right-hander retired the first two batters, he allowed a single to Brad Hawpe and issued a four-pitch walk to Efren Navarro before Luis Rodriguez slapped an RBI single to center. Thornburg then uncorked a wild pitch to allow Navarro to race home for a 2-0 Bees lead. Former Sound Trent Oeltjen delivered the biggest hit of the opening frame, fouling off four consecutive pitches before crushing a 3-2 Thornburg offering to deep right for his fifth home run of the year. The two-run blast made it a 4-0 contest. Lalli got the visitors on the board when he led off the second with his first roundtripper of the season, a solo shot to deep left off Salt Lake starter A.J. Schugel. The Bees added to their lead to 6-1 in the home half of the second, plating two unearned runs against Thornburg after loading the bases with no outs. Salt Lake filled the bags on a single and walk sandwiched around a fielding error by third baseman Stephen Parker before Andrew Romine followed with an RBI fielder's choice to make it a 5-1 contest. Hawpe followed with a sharply-hit one-hopper to first , which Sean Halton gloved and threw to the plate to retire Roberto Lopez for the second out following a rundown. Navarro plated the second run of the frame when he ripped an opposite-field RBI double down the left field line. After another walk loaded the bases again, Thornburg escaped the jam without further damage by striking out Oeltjen. The Sounds got back within striking distance by plating three runs in the top of the third against Schugel. After Scooter Gennett led off with a single, Josh Prince lined an RBI double into the left field corner and Khris Davis contributed a one-out run-scoring single to left to cut the deficit to 6-3. With two down in the frame, Davis stole second and scored the fourth Nashville run of the night when Halton lifted a flare to shallow center for an RBI single. Thornburg again ran into trouble in the Salt Lake third, loading the bases with one out by issuing a pair of walks sandwiched around a Lopez double. Johnnie Lowe took over on the hill for the Sounds and was greeted by a bloop two-run single to shallow right off the bat of Romine that fell just out of the reach of a diving Gennett. Two batters later, Navarro turned a Lowe fastball into a two-run single to center to stretch the Bees' lead to 10-4. Thornburg (0-4) drew the loss after working his shortest start of the season, lasting only 2 1/3 innings. He allowed nine runs (seven ER) on six hits while walking a season-high five batters. Only 43 of his 85 pitches went for strikes. Nashville continued to fight back against Schugel, getting RBI singles off the bats of Khris Davis and Parker in the top of the fifth inning to cut the Salt Lake advantage to 10-6. Parker's knock extended the third sacker's on-base streak to 17 games. Schugel (1-2) was the beneficiary of the Salt Lake offensive output, earning his first victory of the season after giving up six runs on 11 hits over five frames of action. Salt Lake tacked on a pair of insurance runs in the eighth against Jesus Sanchez. Oeltjen singled, stole second and third, and scored on a sacrifice fly. Scott Cousins plated the other run with a two-out RBI single. The teams continue the series with another 7:35 p.m. CT meeting on Saturday. Left-hander Zach Kroenke (0-6, 6.98) will toe the slab for the sounds and face Salt Lake right-hander Matt Shoemaker (3-5, 3.96). Nashville Box Gennett: 1-5 Prince: 2-4, 2 2B, RBI Caleb Gindl: 1-5 Davis: 2-3, 2 RBI, BB, SB Lalli: 3-5, HR, RBI Halton: 1-5, RBI Parker: 1-4, RBI, E (fielding) Hainley Statia: 1-2, 2 BB, SB [pre]Thornburg: 2.1 IP 6 H 9 R 7 ER 5 BB 3 K WP 85 TP (43 strikes) 4:1 GO:FO Lowe: 3.2 IP 2 H 1 R 1 ER 1 BB 1 K Sanchez: 1.0 IP 3 H 2 R 2 ER 1 BB 1 K Balk Donovan Hand: 1.0 IP 0 H 0 R 0 ER 0 BB 0 K[/pre] Nashville PbP Not much fun to look through the game log tonight. By the 7th, Sounds pitching coach Fred Dabney couldn't take it anymore... Salt Lake Bottom of the 7th -Pitching Change: Jesus Sanchez replaces Johnnie Lowe. -Trent Oeltjen singles on a line drive to center fielder Josh Prince. -With Bill Hall batting, Trent Oeltjen steals (6) 2nd base. -Bill Hall strikes out swinging. -With John Hester batting, Trent Oeltjen steals (7) 3rd base. -John Hester walks. -Nashville Sounds Pitching Coach Fred Dabney ejected by HP umpire Joel Hospodka. -Roberto Lopez out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Josh Prince. Trent Oeltjen scores. -With Scott Cousins batting, John Hester advances to 2nd on a balk. -Scott Cousins singles on a ground ball to right fielder Khris Davis. John Hester scores. Scott Cousins to 2nd on the throw. -Andrew Romine singles on a ground ball to shortstop Blake Davis. Scott Cousins to 3rd. -Brad Hawpe flies out to left fielder Caleb Gindl. Nashville Gameday

Mitch Stetter made an appearance for the Bees tonight (that's the extent of former Brewers on the Bees' roster)

I cannot even fathom how that is possible. How can a scouting department not even put in 15-20 minutes of watching film of one of the best Japanese hitters? Crazy It's not true. Craig Counsell did video scouting on Aoki & signed off on his swing translating to MLB.

I would tend to agree with your sentiment at the end here. It's still early in the season, and his frame is definitely still that of an 18-yo. I honestly don't think I'd be too worried if his SLG stays fairly low all season... as long as he continues to show a good BB/K rate & is putting good swings on the ball, I'll be happy. His approach is what really stood out statistically in the 2011 DSL, and so far that looks to be translating to low-A.

Sounds Squash Bees To Open Road Trip Nashville's Hellweg Throws Six Scoreless; Khris Davis Homers Nashville Sounds http://i.imgur.com/GPwjXQk.jpg Johnny Hellweg, archive photo (Mike Strasinger / Nashville Sounds) SALT LAKE CITY - The Nashville Sounds enjoyed a 7-2 victory over the Salt Lake Bees Thursday night at Spring Mobile Ballpark, highlighted by a five-run fifth inning and a quality start from pitcher Johnny Hellweg (2-4). The win snapped Nashville's five-game losing streak. Silencing the Bees early was Hellweg, who scattered four hits over six scoreless innings for the Sounds en route to his second win of the year and first since April 6. The 6-foot-9 hurler walked six and fanned one, at times touching 101 mph on the in-park radar gun. The win is the first by a Nashville starting pitcher in the club's last 33 games, dating back to Frankie De La Cruz's quality-start win versus Oklahoma City on April 8. Hellweg escaped a bases-loaded two-out jam in the sixth to notch the Sounds first quality start since Mike Fiers' six-inning stint on May 3 at Round Rock. Offensively, the Sounds struck first in the third inning with second baseman Scooter Gennett's RBI-triple into centerfield. The liner was driven just over a diving Trent Oeltjen and rolled to the track. Right-fielder Scott Cousins was there to back up the play, which prevented Gennett from trying for an inside-the-park home run. The three-bagger marks the 31st game in 32 starts in which Gennett has reached base safely. The drive scored Blake Davis, who had singled down the left-field line. In the fourth inning, right-fielder Khris Davis drew a lead-off walk, stole second base, and moved to third on Stephen Parker's groundout before scoring on a single from catcher Anderson De La Rosa. The knock made it 2-0 Sounds and extended De La Rosa's hitting streak to eight games, matching his previous best this season. Salt Lake starting pitcher Kip Wells (1-3) gifted a run for the Sounds in the 5th with three consecutive walks to lead-off the inning and one balk that scored Blake Davis. Outfielders Caleb Gindl and Khris Davis added to Wells' struggles by tacking on a pair of two-run hits. Gindl hit a bases-clearing double to put the Sounds up 5-0 and Khris Davis launched a home run to left-center field for a 7-0 advantage. Khris Davis, who went 1-for-4, has nine hits with the Sounds this season and five are home runs. He has recorded four homers over his last four games. At the end of the 7th inning, Sounds first baseman Sean Halton was ejected from the game by home plate umpire Gerard Ascani, after arguing a called strike three on his check swing. Halton finished 0-for-3 with a walk. Blake Lalli, optioned to Nashville from Milwaukee the night before, manned first for Nashville's final three defensive innings. The Bees spoiled the Sounds hopes of recording their third shutout of the season by plating a run in the seventh inning off reliever Travis Webb. Salt Lake drew a one-out walk and cashed in the run on Brad Hawpe's double into left field. Relievers Kyle Heckathorn and Mike Olmsted each logged one inning on the bump for Nashville. Heckathorn fanned two and walked one in the eighth. Olmsted entered in the ninth to surrender one run on two hits and one walk before closing out the game with a strikeout. Oeltjen's RBI-single off Olmsted scored Cousins. The Sounds try for back-to-back wins Friday night at 7:35 against the Bees in game two of the four-game series. RHP Tyler Thornburg (0-4, 5.59) gets the nod for Nashville against a Salt Lake's A.J. Schugel (0-2, 5.59). Baseball returns to Greer Stadium on Friday, May 24, as the Sounds host the Albuquerque Isotopes (AAA-Dodgers) to a four-game set. The game will feature a postgame fireworks show. Nashville Box Hellweg's line: 6 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 6 BB, 1 K, HBP, 99 TP (53 strikes), 10:3 GO:FO Nashville PbP Nashville Gameday

Wow, I just noticed that we have a Bill Hall sighting with the Salt Lake Bees. Yes, that Bill Hall.

I think the opinions you encountered that you're citing in this post are simply too extreme. At the time of the trade what I read on Hellweg was that, while he has the stuff to be a top-of-rotation starter, he has/had a hard time repeating his mechanics consistently (with some suggestions that his height plays a role in that). So honestly what I read then & what I've read since is very much a mixed bag. He's a hard one to project, but unless he really starts to harness his control (& soon), I think he's more likely to be a back-end impact RP type. And that is by no means a bad thing... I mean, the guy touches triple digits on the FB at times as a starter. Imagine what kind of heat he could bring when he knows he can simply let it fly for an inning at a time. Also, welcome to the board!

Hellweg velocity report from Mr. Hem:

As Jeff Hem noted in this tweet... ... some big offense tonight. A 5-run 5th: Nashville Top of the 5th -Blake Davis walks. -Scooter Gennett walks. Blake Davis to 2nd. -With Josh Prince batting, Blake Davis steals (3) 3rd base. -With Josh Prince batting, Blake Davis scores on a balk. Scooter Gennett advances to 2nd on a balk. -Josh Prince walks. -Caleb Gindl doubles (9) on a line drive to center fielder Trent Oeltjen. Scooter Gennett scores. Josh Prince scores. -Khris Davis homers (5) on a fly ball to center field. Caleb Gindl scores. -Pitching Change: Jeremy Berg replaces Kip Wells. -Stephen Parker flies out to right fielder Scott Cousins. -Sean Halton pops out to second baseman Bill Hall. -Anderson De La Rosa flies out to center fielder Trent Oeltjen.

What is it? This could be anything -- would you change scouting directors? managers? Would you implement a different approach in the draft, trade strategy, or financial/contract approach? What do you think the Brewers do well enough that you'd follow their current approaches? Which players would you trade away (or bring in via trade)? I don't think I have an answer to this as of right now, though I do have a general direction I'd gravitate towards. I used 5 seasons as a small but arbitrary number. Don't feel obligated to stick to it. But talk about how you would steer this organization in the near future if you were given the reigns.

What "a few execs" means, is that's who was in the lobby at the same time McCalvy was. I would definitely take them as a representative sample of the entire group of GMs, and not an isolated & unrelated group. If that group that McCalvy happened to run into didn't know, I think it's a very safe assumption that many more GMs didn't know either -- there are only 32 of them, and news has a way of traveling within that network. This is the problem with many have with Melvin, and specifically on this deal. He should be looking around to see what the best available return on a player is, not pre-determining that he needs a Proven Veteran™.

So... yeah. Guaranteeing this guy a $2M rate to continue to be a wheel of terror. Not a fan. I guess I'm half expecting them to give Dave Bush & Doug Davis a call.

Wow. I read that at first as Las Vegas, Australia. Been a long day at the office today.

Every single night he gives you, at the very least, one defensive play that made it worth your time to watch. I love this guy... his defense is unreal.

Obviously there are lots of players with physical talent who never make it. What I'm saying is that it's way too early to start gloating about him & mocking people who feel his talent ceiling is really high. This, as I posted previously, is the problem I have with the move as well. Believe me, it doesn't break my heart to see a jerk like Lawrie traded away.

Thanks, Jim. I would've gotten to this when I got home from work, but I can't say it isn't nice to see it done already!

He graduated from high school in 1994 and was still at Whitewater as recently as 2010. I'm ignorant to this story, is there some specific reason why he's getting called a moron? I realize he spent a long time in college, but was it due to failing a lot of classes?

I think this opens up an interesting line of discussion. I really try not to use results like whether a team makes/misses the postseason to evaluate a trade. I realize that's the motivating factor, essentially, for a trade like Greinke to LAA or Sabathia to MIL. However, that's such a team-dependent result that I think you set yourself up for confusion and/or failure in evaluating a trade if you use making/missing the postseason as a major factor. Really what I want to see is what value did you get for what you gave up. For example, Greinke pitched well for the Angels, & they still missed the postseason -- that shouldn't reflect poorly on him or take away from what the Angels got out of the trade. Conversely, if they'd have made the postseason last year in spite of perhaps less-than-stellar production from him, I can't say that I weigh his addition more heavily than if they'd missed the playoffs with similar subpar performance from Zack. So what did the Angels get? 89.1 IP of ~3.50 ERA baseball, which is about exactly what they should have been expecting. So then, to me the argument is that LAA got exactly what they sought to add. The fact that they were willing to overpay in prospects because they felt that caliber of production from Greinke would be the difference btw. making or missing the postseason simply illustrates a mistake they made in how they valued what Greinke would mean to them. The chance that you capture lightning in a bottle like the Crew did with CC in 2008 are so ridiculously slim that no GM should be even hoping for that kind of performance imo.

Somehow I missed this reply but I hope no malice towards Melvin was inferred on my part as I'm actually really happy with last year's Greinke trade. I have plenty of reasons to dislike Melvin's organization building strategy (or lack there of) but in this case he was spot on. I was speaking more to the idea of "being one player away" and I started thinking about potentially giving up 6-7 WAR per season over the course of 6-7 years for 2 months of a rental pitcher. That's just terrible value by any measure. I didn't read any.

Well, I just killed a fully completed post on this one. Not even sure how that happened... I definitely clicked "submit"... but... ... so this is just going to be a bare-bones post tonight Sounds Drop Third Straight To River Cats, 8-4 Nashville's Davis Records Two HR; Pairs With Halton For Back-To-Back Jacks Nashville Sounds http://i.imgur.com/slQ2Jo3.jpg Francisco Rodríguez (Mike Strasinger / Nashville Sounds) NASHVILLE, Tenn. - The Sacramento River Cats took their third straight game from the Nashville Sounds, prevailing 8-4 on Monday evening at Greer Stadium. River Cats starter Bruce Billings (3-2) turned in a quality start to post the victory, striking out eight batters while allowing three runs (one earned) on four hits over six innings of action. It marked the right-hander's third quality start in his last four outings. The defeat was the fourth in a row for Nashville (10-26), which went 0-for-8 with runners in scoring position in the contest. Sacramento took a 2-0 lead in the top of the first inning against Sounds starter R.J. Seidel. Jemile Weeks led off with a single, moved to third on a Hiro Nakajima ground-rule double, and later scored the night's first run on a Shane Peterson sacrifice fly. Grant Green followed a Michael Choice walk with an infield single that scored Nakajima to double the visitors' advantage. The River Cats tacked on a run in the third when Choice drew a two-out walk from Seidel and raced around to score on Green's RBI double off the base of the center field wall. Nashville got two runs back in the home half of the third, cutting the deficit to 3-2 with a pair of unearned scores against Billings. Catcher Anderson De La Rosa led off with a double, extending the club's longest active hitting streak to six games. He has produced an extra-base hit in five of those six tilts. De La Rosa cut the Sounds' deficit to 3-1 when he scored on Nakajima's errant throw from shortstop after fielding a Blake Davis grounder. Davis later plated Nashville's second run of the frame when he scored from third on a Scooter Gennett groundout. Khris Davis (2-for-3), who homered twice on Sunday afternoon, continued his power surge in the fourth inning when he swatted a game-tying solo homer to left off Billings, his fourth big fly of the year. Sacramento pulled back in front in the sixth after loading the bases with no outs against the Nashville bullpen. With the bases jammed, Weeks fouled off six straight Jesus Sanchez 3-2 offerings before taking ball four high and away to force in Stephen Vogt, who had opened the frame with a double off Travis Webb (0-2), with the go-ahead run. Nakajima followed with a sac fly to right to up the River Cats' lead to 5-3. The River Cats added three more runs in the seventh against Sanchez to extend their advantage to 8-3. Scott Moore delivered the big hit in the frame with a two-run double to right. Francisco Rodriguez worked a scoreless eighth inning in his first appearance for the Sounds, allowing one hit and walking a batter during his 15-pitch outing. Nashville plated the game's final run in the bottom of the eighth when Sacramento reliever Pedro Figueroa committed a two-out balk with runners on second and third to allow Khris Davis, who singled earlier in the frame, to score. The teams wrap up the four-game series with an 11:05 a.m. finale on Tuesday morning, when it will be Education Day at the ballpark. Right-hander Frankie De La Cruz (1-4, 7.14) will man the bump for the Sounds to face Sacramento left-hander Justin Thomas (1-2, 5.25). Nashville Box I'm really glad the Brewers did the right thing with Khrush Davis & sent him to Nashville to get regular playing time. After taking a while to get back into the groove, he's responded well, going 6-15 (.400) in his last four games. Tonight was also his third game this season in RF -- the club definitely seem to be evaluating him in the corner spot not occupied by Ryan Braun. I think that says a lot about how they value his bat, honestly. He did have two errors tonight (one fielding, one throwing), though. Caleb Gindl is quietly compiling a good start to his season. Even after an 0-4 tonight, and a very slow start to the campaign, he has his OPS over .800. And I really don't know what I think about K-Rod. He didn't live up to his nickname tonight, with no K's. But it was a scoreless outing, albeit a somewhat typical 'twenty pitches of terror' type of outing, with a BB & H allowed. I just am not sold that this guy is worth a $2M rate -- was there really a team the Brewers had to outbid to sign Rodríguez? And, if so, was that even a good baseball decision? And, oh yeah, then you add on his multiple instances of domestic violence... great. It's just depressing that the state of the big club's pitching is this desperate. Nashville PbP Nashville Gameday

He was injured last season & put up that .729 OPS in the AL East as a 22yo third baseman. I completely agree the guy is a grade A jag, but it's way too early to start sniping about what a bust he is. And yes I am one who believes that trading him for Marcum was a waste -- not because he was traded, but because he wasn't traded in a more creative fashion (read: for a younger, longer-controlled SP). I still feel confident that he will put up enough value to make that trade look bad on the Brewers' end. And before people respond with 'without Marcum, no Greinke', please acknowledge that there's more than one way to skin a cat/trade for the caliber of SP that would've enticed Greinke... Lawrie has stunk so far this season, and it may be fun to gloat about that, but his physical talent is undeniable.

It very well could end up being the gold star standard for what not to do as a buyer if all 3 players have lengthly big league careers. The idea of giving up 3 big leaguers to miss the playoffs makes me sick. I have to guess that part of why the Angels traded for him is that they felt they could re-sign him. I always cringe when I see that justification applied to trades/potential trades. You should never trade away talent because you think it somehow nets you the first crack at signing a FA before he hits the FA market. Elite guys are (99.9% of the time) always going to want to hit the market in any event, and even if you sign the guy before he hits FA, you're still paying the market value... so what extra good did the trade do you beyond the appx. half season you get out of him anyway? While I don't think it was some deviation from his m.o., I do give Melvin credit for this trade. It's already been a win thanks to Segura. Hellweg & Pena would just be icing on the cake, and both of them have pretty good upsides. Even if just one of them 'only' winds up a decent bullpen arm, you can't help but love the trade. Nice to see another solid outing from Pena, but the next step for him will be to be more efficient with his pitches. Although, I guess technically the next step would be to just string some good starts together, and he's got two straight... keep on rollin', Ariel Speedwagon.