TooLiveBrew

What players are going into their decline by or before age 27? Both are talented and both still have value to the Brewers, but I don't think either will bring us a return that in anyway compares to the return we would have got for them if we had traded them at the height of their powers. 2009 is Fielder's age-25 season & Hart's age-27. I'm really confused where to look to find the 'height of their powers' -- Fielder hit 50 HR, so we should have traded him? No way we make the playoffs in '08 without him. Hart had a bad half of 2008, and now he's kaput? I just can't get on board with that kind of pessimism (which imo is too extreme). Pardon the crude estimations, but I think it's reasonable to think of Hart as a .340 OBP/.475 SLG talent which fits fine at RF. Fielder looks about a .380/.525 type of talent, which fits fine at 1B. I really don't understand how to feel like they're both in their declines. I think that baseball is more akin to history than science, but I get your point. The numbers are are important in retrospect, and it may be that they have some value as a predictor, but they also cannot phantom the immense variables of any human activity. (otherwise we truly wouldn't have to "play 'em") Oh I agree that projections & stats don't cover the whole story. But the point to me is that they aren't intended to. I think that's the disconnect between people that really enjoy examining stats/projections & those that don't. Personally, I enjoy getting an approximate level or production for players, since baseball stats fluctuate so much from year to year. On the other hand, I think some fans (not pointing at you) take more enjoyment out of projections being wrong for some reason. And of course they are wrong from time to time... just the nature of the beast. There's most definitely a human element or elements to baseball. The problem is you can't display what impact they do or don't have. Guys like Eckstein get praised so heavily because they 'do the little things'. But that's what these things are -- little. And to be totally honest, most superstars do the little things too, but you can't really find anything outstanding to talk about someone like Eckstein, since he just isn't that outstanding.

OK, this is getting really old. Why do people on this board need to continually insinuate Aaron may have done steroids when there's never been any real evidence that he did? May as well say, "There's no proof that Babe Ruth wasn't on the juice, either." You can't prove a negative You also can't prove the positive ('Aaron never abused PEDs'), either. There's nothing wrong with being skeptical, and in my own personal case it has nothing to do with how much or how little I respect any given player, Aaron included. Imo it's just naive to operate on the assumption that players shouldn't face skepticism just because there's no proof. There were many PED discussions on this forum where A-Rod was often cited as a clean player. I didn't believe that should be assumed then, and obviously it's come out that he wasn't. Did Aaron abuse 'roids? Who knows? But in either case I don't think it's wrong of anyone to wonder aloud if he did... and I also don't think you're wrong, Invader, for standing up for what you think is more likely too.

Brad Nelson can handle the corner OF spots as well, correct? Maybe not well, but...

But up to this point his body has had to be babied because it breaks down regularly. It has broken down in the past. This is a pet peeve of mine, sorry. Just like saying, 'Player X is a .325 hitter' because he's hit .325 through date Z of a season. Imho it's very important to keep the tense correct when talking about players. Parra eventually got fatigued last season, but only because he's never had a workload that big... not because he inherently wears down more or less than any other pitcher. And his willpower? I just don't see it. For me the incident last year proved that at least there's some doubt there. You mean the incident where a teammate with anger issues attacked him unprovoked? And that tells us something about Parra's willpower? I know observation is not much cared for around here even though it is considered a primary source in science and history, but my observation is that he gets into trouble and he gets scared, becomes tentative and gives up on his talent instead of trusting it. Yes, scientific observation is invaluable. However, watching baseball games with no access beyond that is nowhere near scientific. Now prove it. Start cranking out the players like the Twins do. I think there should already be more than enough MLB or near-MLB players to satisfy any critic at this point. I could list them, but you know who they are.

Either it all goes, or it all stays. Sooner or later, people are just going to have to accept that it was part of baseball for a long time, and move on... Agreed, DJ -- we all cheered for them during the heyday. Why do people still talk like the pitchers facing guys like Bonds weren't PED abusers too? Canseco's estimate of 75% was of all players, not just batters. Hank Aaron hit HRs off pitchers that had access to the same or similar physical training & PEDs (greenies/amphetamines), and Bonds hit them off pitchers that had access to the same or similar physical training & PEDs ('roids, HGH, etc.). Where is the difference? I don't think it can be effectively argued that a tangible one exists. The only difference imo is in fan sentiment, since there's a ridiculous amount of coverage & scrutiny of the gam now that simply didn't exist in Aaron's day.

Chris Neault of The Disabled List Informer gives his take on the Sheets situation: Where there is smoke, there is fire. It is important to note that he has had related injuries in the past. Sheets had his 2007 season cut short after tearing tissue surrounding a tendon in his middle finger (the A4 pulley, which controls and restrains tendon motion). He was sent to the DL in July and missed a course of 40 games with the injury. Interestingly enough, the middle finger tendons course up the forearm (where its muscle belly resides) and originates at the medial elbow - the site of his upcoming surgery. Basically, excessive force through the tendon equals more force through the pulley. While rest sometimes helps tendon tear injuries, rarely does it fully fix the problem. An MRI taken in late September 2008 showed a tear in a muscle at the medial elbow - reportedly not to a tendon. Muscle does heal much more readily than tendons do, so if this was the information they were working with, it would have been feasible to think that rest and rehabilitation could help. Could it be that the MRI was wrong? Sure it could - and it probably was - especially in light of what we know now. He will be out at least the next 4 months for sure (prior to starting his pitching program). He will have to be immobilized postoperatively with a cast initially, only to be soon transitioned into a splint. At about 3 weeks post-op, he will likely be allowed some form of active movement of the hand and fingers while in the splint. The next step will be removing the splint and gradually increasing active motion over the next few weeks. Typically, splint use is discontinued at around week 5-6, as this is when the tendon remodeling begins (and hence scar tissue formation). It can, however, be common for the splint to be worn longer if needed. Strengthening of the wrist, fingers and elbow usually starts around week 8 post-op, and continues over the next few months. Most all of the tendon healing should be complete by 3 to 4 months post-op. Then there's the thing called pitching. This takes time to work back into game shape, allowing the elbow time to respond to the valgus force that caused the problem to begin with. Dr. Andrews' throwing program protocol (for example) can have as many as 30 steps - each of which is typically is performed twice, without pain, prior to progressing to the next step (this is usually followed strictly, but there are probably instances in which it is modified depending how the player is progressing). Between each throwing day, there is a day of rest. So you can see how this process will take a few months. Following simulated games, he would then need to throw live innings. With what we know now, it is likely that he will be out for the entire '09 season. If he somehow manages to progress ahead of schedule to return around August, it would likely be in a relief role. For fantasy purposes, it is obviously a situation where you can safely cross him off your draft lists.

Wow. That's a wicked trifecta. Burrell at least has an arm, which might get him out of the bottom two there. Sheesh. Maybe a coinflip between Abreu & Dunn? But good grief is Abreu bad.

Nothing really to base this on, but I think the Brewers shied away due to the injury. They knew he had it, Ben thought it would heal and the Brewers weren't willing to take the chance on offering a contract. But they offered him arbitration, so clearly they weren't all that concerned. Projections give you the best guess at an average expected performance I have no idea why, but some people seem to be pleased to no end when projections are off. I think there's the perception that statistical methods of player projection don't take into account gut/grittiness/clutchiness, and that they are evil, evil, critical poopoohead numbers.

Ok, so for anyone (like me) who was wondering just how good Escobar's defense is, the BA link Casey provided on Escobar fills in some gaps: And a bit more on his offense:

Even though it was painfully obvious to everyone all along that the Brewers were never interested in Dunn Bobskube, who seems to have some pretty good insider access (or something close to that) actually indicated that Melvin was in fact interested in Dunn, so you couldn't be more off-base on that. See reply #40 in the locked Abreu transactions forum thread. I don't know why Melvin didn't make a play for Dunn No... you don't know if he made a play for him or not.

Dang. Dunn will likely be the most sought-after position player come trade deadline time, which means he probably wouldn't come too cheaply. Nice signing by the Nats.

"*Since Weeks arrived in the big leagues in June 2005, the Brewers are 215-198 (.521) when he starts at second base and 114-121 (.485) when he doesn't. *Over the past three seasons, the Brewers are 146-130 (.529) when Weeks bats leadoff and 102-108 (.486) when someone else hits first. ... *Weeks scored 46.6% of the time he reached base in 2008 (89 runs, 191 times on base), the second-best percentage in the National League and sixth-best in the majors. *Weeks tied the National League record by scoring runs in 17 consecutive games, Sept. 18, 2007 - April 4, 2008. It fell one game short of matching the major league record." Oh, Tom... What would we have to talk about if you weren't still stuck on crediting players for team stats? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif As someone who has been very hard on Weeks at times, I thought it only fair to point out those ways in which he has value. A tip o' the hat to you, there, TH. Why do I not expect this levity to remain in your reporting on Weeks once the season gets underway?

Kennedy complained all last year because he was splitting time with someone who was playing better baseball. Great point, apirk. LaRussa pushed his GM to get him an option at 2B that doesn't suck. For as much as I don't like LaRussa, I have to side with him on this one. Kennedy will probably get picked up somewhere, and the Cards can find his type of production readily. Heck, isn't Orlando Hudson still unsigned?

Yo's IP don't need monitoring like Parra's do. I don't know about that. I mean, the kid has now blown out both knees. Sure, it's not his elbow or shoulder, but I think the Brewers need to be closely monitoring his workload in 2009.

Abreu doesn't compare to Cameron because he absolutely kills you in the field. It only makes sense that he wound up on an AL team, and I think he's a decent fit & signing for LAA. Jon Heyman is the same guy who called Abreu's defensive deficiencies way overblown. Then I seriously disagree with Jon Heyman. I watched the Yankees a lot last season. Abreu is a very, very bad fielder. EDIT: I'm not claiming to be some expert. It's just not hard to see how bad he is defensively.

If we wait on Parra, we're gonna find out we've got a fragile, weak-minded player, who is never going to be an above average pitcher AND pitch 200 innings a year. I agree that Hart is probably going to be the same player he was last year or regress again, leaving us still needing an outfielder. We waited to trade Sheets and now we're paying the price. We're waiting to trade Prince and unfortunately we're gonna pay the price on that as well. At least you're not just making wild categorizations. Do you care to try & defend any of this?

How can you say they are a wash offensively? Because Abreu is projected to SLG around .400 in 2009. The OBP doesn't stick around when the SLG falls. Do you really find a .360 OBP/.415 SLG (<--my rough guesstimate for Abreu) preferable to .340 OBP/.480 SLG (<--appx. projection for Hart) when you know for a fact that the prior line brings disastrous defense, and the latter line brings average to above-average D? Honestly, being overall equal value to Abreu has to be the worst-case scenario for Hart in '09. Abreu is strong in some of the glaring areas where the Brewers need to improve. About the only one he's not is defense. But he's no Luis Gonzalez (paper arm) or Manny Ramirez (butcher with the glove who used to have one of the most feared OF arms in the AL), either. Abreu is about as bad a defensive OF as you can find in MLB. In addition, he can only handle corner OF, where you need a big bat just to hang, even without poor defense dragging you down. Imo Abreu will do well to just not cost his team runs next season when offense & defense are considered. I don't think it can be stressed enough that Abreu completely sucks in the field. However unlikely, I'd still love to see the Brewers trade Cameron to NY for Cabrera & something, then sign Abreu. That's a way to make the team worse. Abreu has no position unless you sell about as low as possible on Hart (& even then I don't think Abreu should be trusted in RF, & likely won't have the bat for LF), and Cabrera is not a good player. Imho Cabrera's the type of guy a rebuilding team should take a flyer on, but not a team that's re-loading to be competitive again this season and/or next like the Crew.

Bottom line is that when Hall's hitting, he can hit both. Or the bottom line is that RHP can handle Bill Hall, and that he can handle LHP. Career splits -- v. R: .249/.300/.441/.741 (1,932 PA) v. L: .278/.355/.493/.847 (782 PA) That's a pretty clear platoon split, no matter how many small single-season samples you randomly extract. A .300 OBP v. RHP is just not something the Brewers should or will accept, hence Mike Lamb -- who's really not even that great himself, which tells you all you need to know about Hall v. RHP. A scrap-heap-nabbed LH bat is a better option than Hall against righties.

I think Abreu would be a huge upgrade to this offense, even as a platoon player. If you can get him for a one year deal under $5 million, I dont see how you can't do it. Because his defense is tragically bad, and cancels out much or most of what he'd bring in terms of offense. Hart & Abreu are probably about a wash offensively anyway, and then when you add in defense it's not even close.

I don't think Abreu will be all that much of an upgrade over Brad Nelson, if you're talking about making Abreu the #4 OF & assumedly getting him tons of PH PAs v. RHP. Abreu can't handle CF, and can't really even handle the corner OF spots anymore. He'd be a bad pickup for the Brewers at $4M or $5M imho. Think Fielder... except with far less power -- and his defense likely negates even more of his offense than Prince's at 1B, since RF is a more impactful defensive spot than 1B.

Doesn't he have a colossal credibility problem? You don't choose the nickname "A-Fraud". It chooses you!

Great info, bobskube... thanks for sharing that last week.

DiFelice actually had very good success v. LHB in the minors once he added the cutter. minorleaguesplits.com is where I usually go, but not sure if they still have his splits up anymore or not. Glad to see the Looper signing, as he seems to be that one arm that remained for Melvin to add... ensuring the requisite depth for a 162-game MLB season. I hope as many of the groundballs he induces go to J.J. as possible. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

Just got done watching it... and honestly, I wouldn't start a thread on it but for one reason. And no, this in no way spoils the ending. Near the end of the movie, in the last or second-to-last scene, George W. Bush is sitting & watching a college baseball game. It's between the Texas Longhorns & the Miami Hurricanes. The announcer calling the game on TV in the movie (whose voice can be heard) describes a play on which the 'Canes' batter, "Monroe" (funny Presidential reference by Stone imo), knocks a ball into the RC gap. The Texas CF dives & misses the ball, and the batter-runner streaks all the way around the bases for an inside-the-park HR. Now initially I didn't think anything of it, but as the movie's TV game broadcast showed a closeup of the Hurricanes' batter-runner rounding third, I thought, 'Wait -- was that Braun?' Sure enough, after he slid safely into home, Braun's cocky little strut was clearly visible as "Monroe" walked back to the Miami dugout. So even though I didn't really need to, I went back & re-watched the play a couple times, just to verify that it was Braun. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Cool little tidbit for Brewers fans watching the movie. For reference's sake, the clip comes at nearly the 2-hour mark, and is less than 60 sec. before the end of the film. On the whole I thought the film was, at worst, worth watching. I didn't think it was too heavy-handed in one direction or another... but I meant to post about Braun being in Oliver Stone's latest film. Ray Allen... Ryan Braun... the legacy continues

I would personally put Capuano in the rotation right now before I put Wright in there because Capuano has had success in the majors. Nevermind the fact that Cappy won't be ready to pitch until into the 2009 season...