TooLiveBrew

I dont know how good Beltre really is as he has only had 1 really good year back in 2004 but if he is an upgrade over Hall I am all for it. Beltre is awesome. Best gloveman at 3B in the bigs (imho), and a .800+ OPS hitter outside of Safeco. Career road OPS of .834

I'd like to make my 2008-09 appeal for pictures in this thread! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

Not sure if this is the best place for it or not, but I'm here so yeah... Chone Smith (of the Chone projections) has ranked Hardy as the best SS of 2008 by his metric called TotalZone. Below are the criteria he uses for the stat: "I find how many plays each shortstop makes on groundballs. If he fields a groundball, and an out is recorded on the play, it counts, regardless of whether it's a throw to first, flip to second, or the SS steps on 2B himslef. Next, how many hits and errors did the shortstop allow? Errors are easy enough. Hits are charged to the shortstop if it's an infield hit to short, a groundball single to left, or to center. Shortstops are charged with 39% of singles to left, and 55% of those to center. Next, combine the hits and outs for each SS into a zone, or, a TotalZone, and compare this to league average. Not all opportunities are created equal however, so I break down this data into buckets, depending on what side of the plate the batter hits from (pulled balls are easier to convert into outs) and whether or not 1st base is occupied, as a potential forceplay at 2nd affects positioning. We are comparing each bucket to the league average for each situation. Finally, a park adjustment is applied. To improve sample size, I use one park adjustment for all infield positions. I can't, and won't, claim that TotalZone data is as detailed as UZR, plus/minus, or PMR. It does not distinguish between easy and hard plays. What it simply means, is that a player with a very good rating has fewer hits and makes more outs than normal for the portion of balls hit into his area, and a poor TZ fielder has more hits and fewer outs in his area." And here are the top & bottom rankings that he divined: Best SS: +19, JJ Hardy +12, Jack Wilson +12, Marco Scutaro +11, Yunel Escobar +9, Cesar Izturis +9, Cristian Guzman +9, Michael Young +6, Jimmy Rollins Bottom SS: -7, Ryan Theriot -8, Jason Bartlett -9, Brendan Harris -9, Yuni Betencourt While defensive rankings can vary quite a bit from year to year, I found it interesting that a metric rated J.J. so well for 2008. I'd personally describe him as above-average overall (but very consistent) with the leather.

He's a solid defensive SS -- fwiw the Chone defensive projections for 2009 have Greene as a +5 at SS & Hardy at a +1. He's not very good at getting on base, but he does have, at worst, semi-legit power (career SLG of .427 playing half his career games at PetCo Park). After having his 2008 numbers held down by the self-inflicted hand injury, I think this would be an ok buy-low move by the Cards. Not a big difference-maker, but if he has some (relatively unlikely) good luck with his BA the Cards would look pretty shrewd. I can't imagine they'd have to give up too much to get him. I can already see him in a Cards uni... and already hate him http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

how much money was the deal with the mariners for? why doesn't it mention that anywhere? Per the link in the lead post (towards the bottom): It looks like Branyan got a decent amount of money and will have a good chance at playing time, so best of luck to him. I just hope this doesn't mean that Gamel will start 09' in the majors. Agreed on both, rluz. I let my emotions get the best of me when I saw that Branyan had signed with SEA. Of course it makes sense for him to go somewhere that's going to give him more playing time. Good luck 3TO!

Great contract Houston! The best part is that it's just going to keep looking better the further you get into it!

Holy crap. If it only take 3/$35M or so to ink Dunn, that's the kind of signing you make and then worry about what to do with your other players later.

Whatever happened to guys, I dont know, playing defense? That's an interesting point, RyDogg. I know people (iirc Ennder) have pointed out that the Moneyball strategy is now to focus on defense. Once the 'marketplace' starts to reward the undervalued trait a bit, I think players might start to concentrate a bit more on defense. With Abreu, his defensive problems now are almost entirely due to aging, but there certainly are players that just don't seem to care about or want to work much on defense. Dunn isn't horrid in LF, but as he ages he certainly will be.

Guys like Branyan aren't the solution for us they are filler material. Guys that can OPS around .900 v. RHP at 3B aren't that easy to come by. Couple that with Hall doing about the same to LH pitching, and that the defense would be solid, and you have an ideal (read: AS-caliber production) 3B platoon. Are you an imposter 3TO fan? More than anyone in the league, you should know what to expect when Russel the Muscle steps in the box! Clearly liveforoctober meant, 'I don't know if the ball is going to travel 800 feet, or only 600 feet' http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

I just don't get it. Why wasn't retaining Branyan a priority for Melvin? Now the situation at 3B is incredibly concerning to me. At least with Branyan we had the fall-back of a Hall/Branyan platoon. does this mean they are looking to deal Beltre? I would think so, Zach. There were rumors through the 2008 season, and once again after the WS. I sure hope Melvin can jump on that. Beltre on a one-year deal at $12M is a nice fit for the 2009 Crew. Although there is this, from Cot's: Limited no-trade clause allowing Beltre to block deals to 8 clubs (including Padres and Dodgers). And this: Agent: Scott Boras I'd be willing to guess that back when he signed his deal in 2005, the Brewers had a pretty good shot of being one of those other 6 teams. Of course he'd probably feel differently about that now. Good grief I love Beltre. That guy's defense is amazing.

Yeah Abreu isn't a RFer anymore and his bat doesn't work that well at LF. Add in his power delcine (ISOs of .164, .162, and.176 last three seasons) and I fear he has a decent chance of completely falling off a cliff. At this point, Abreu is horrible in the field. Horrible. This cannot be overstated enough. Plus I think that others are right in that he'll be pricier since he won't cost comp. picks. I think he'd be best used with a team that has a DH spot & needs a one-year boost in OBP. At best he certainly should only be expected to sustain his offensive production. Although that's solid, I think overall he would be about a wash for an NL team.

You might be able to get a good LH bat Garrett Anderson on a one or two year deal for less than half that. Garrett Anderson is not a guy to target imo. He's an aging guy whose (below-avg.) OBP is tied heavily to his AVG, and sucks big-time defensively. Whatever extra money it would cost to net Dunn over Anderson would be well worth it. Fielder is a better player than Dunn, period. Prince's plate discipline is improving every year. There is no way this argument can be made convincingly (though I do agree with the second part). Prince is as bad as it gets on defense at the easiest position, and his BB rate would have to increase by quite a bit to catch Dunn's. Their HR power is about a wash, so Fielder really only holds the edge in singles & doubles (aka AVG).

I always liked Moore's part in the band, but I think he is the most replaceable...although I dont think Jeff Coffin will be as cool looking on stage. I hadn't checked into who was replacing LeRoi. Kinda weird that the guy to replace someone that died has the surname Coffin

I'm sure TH & AW are hard at work on that piece, BBTS. Though I wholeheartedly agree that would be a great read. Is Mark A. a 51% majority owner or a "I own more of the Brewers than anyone else " majority owner? A 'plurality owner'? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

It seems this is a deal the White Sox made because Vazquez had a handful of bad starts (3 in Sept. 2008). If more organizations operated in this manner, each offseason would be pretty chaotic. I like ATL attempting to capitalize on what is basically irrational frustration on the part of CWS. If nothing else Vazquez should be able to be flipped if ATL can't stay in the hunt in 2009.

I'm a big Dave Matthews Band nerd, and their sax/flute player LeRoi Moore died recently. He was my favorite member of the group, so for me his absence will probably be more notable than it will for others. I haven't heard anything from the band without Moore yet, nor what their plans include. Overall he can probably be replaced relatively well, but there's no question I won't ever think of the band in the same light. Then again, it's not like GNR or heck even the Temptations -- do the Temps still tour? Last I knew iirc they were down to one original member. Great topic, fwiw.

The save stat is just a crappy way to measure WPA. Just use WPA. A 3 run save adds almost no WPA. WPA is really great, since it works for pitchers & hitters, and it's actually quite simple to understand. The fact that I feel I have a decent grasp of it should tell you all you need to know on how easy it is to 'get'. I agree with Russ that WPA is a great way to value RP in particular, since so much of their assumed value is in how much high-leverage work they get.

Wow, if that's true, why wouldn't AZ have offered him arbitration? That would seem very odd to me. And then yes, sign me up as well for pursuing Dunn via FA.

Part of me wonders if teams are hanging on to the whole "save scenario" for marketing reasons. I think teams like a fireballer coming in the 9th to K three guys even though the team has a 2-3 run lead. Brian Shouse "holding down the fort" isn't as exciting as ending the game on 3 K's. I think teams like the fans leaving the game on a high. I think there's some truth to that 'fan experience' angle. However I think it's also largely due to the fact that the best pitchers record more outs with the K, and that managers/coaches/organizations are still stuck on thinking that the 'best' RP should be the CP.

He is coming off a pretty darn good 2nd half with a 3.52 ERA, WHIP of 1.0, and a BAA of .205. If he wouldn't have given up so many darn HR's last year we would probably be talking about bringing him back. Different players & circumstances, but Scott Linebrink is a decent Exhibit A of how fluky RPs can be from year to year. I think trying to hammer out an incentive-laden deal with Gagne would be worth the Brewers' time & money (given that I think the price tag of ~ $3M plus incentives is the ballpark).

Lidge led all RP with a 5.37 WPA, Rivera had a 4.47. Marmol was the highest non closer at 3.77. The highest Brewer was Torres at 1.13. Gagne had a -.77. And just to further clarify (in case it wasn't clear) a 0 value is league-avg. for WPA

Trenni was awful. She was the best sideline reporter the Brewers have had since I can recall. And it has nothing to do with her looks as far as I'm concerned. She consistently brought her A game, and was well-prepared on all but a handful of occasions. Plus she could put up with BA & Rock constantly throwing stuff at her when she was reporting from below their booth at MP, so we know she's totally clutch too. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

Well he hasn't signed away yet Tbadder. Not really fair to say the Brewers can't compete if they haven't even had a chance yet to see an offer they might need to match

Please don't leave us Jim! My first thought on seeing this thread title was, "Aw sh[oo]t". I really hope this is just blind speculation

Like any projection isn't essentially worthless. I think they're all meant to be conversation starters essentially. Nope, they're intended to provide an estimated range of production. Not intended to pinpoint a precise line imo, or if one expects that, it's setting yourself up for disappointment. The projections for Cam in 2008 iirc were quite good, as were a number of others.