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TooLiveBrew

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Everything posted by TooLiveBrew

  1. TooLiveBrew
    My problem with using W-L for any individual is that it's a team stat. It always bugs/bugged the crap outta me when the four-letter network would show Favre's 'W-L record' -- Brett himself talked about how he thought it was silly in an interview. However, as FtJ notes, it is a part of the resume that should be considered. For my personal considerations, W-L is way down on the list.
  2. TooLiveBrew
    Agreed, and I hate the White Sox too. Now if they could've just taken one game at Wrigley...
  3. TooLiveBrew
    Sorry man. I was a tad pissy after a tough loss. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Sorry. I don't want to be abrasive.
  4. TooLiveBrew
    The guy who did the draft grades for The Sporting News called Luc-Richard Mbah a Moute, "Ron Artest without the crazy." I like that. Can we very un-officially dub him 'Raw-TC-Mac'? It's shorter than "Luc-Richard Mbah a Moute" http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif
  5. TooLiveBrew
    What did Cameron's response have to do with your request for an autograph? Was it just small-talk, or does he hold you personally accountable for how crappy his stay was? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  6. TooLiveBrew
    Tschida's zone sucked all night, practically. The left side of the plate (away to RH batters) was a coin-flip even if the pitch was off the plate, and then things just got even worse in the 9th. That curveball Lyons threw Braunie (called a ball... somehow) was a relatively obvious strike, so it's not like we're just pissing & moaning. Send him to Mexico for some bats and bring back Vargas! Is Estrada available to pitch?!?1!?1 OMG! (yes, I know you were kidding, Baldy http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif )
  7. TooLiveBrew
    Yeah, I 'third' that. I'm not certain how I'd slot the different GMs, but imho Melvin is certainly in the top half. Of course now that Bavasi's out of a job, the competition inevitably gets tougher for Doug. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif
  8. TooLiveBrew
    Braun was 0-5 tonight! Cancel all the votes!
  9. TooLiveBrew
    Well you could just look at my post on that instead of trying to goad others.
  10. TooLiveBrew
    You are saying a dozen playoff games cancel out hundreds of regular games? Sheesh, it's an example. I didn't say it did that. Maybe you can find me a link to the definition of how luck evens itself out? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Anyway, I took a look at the ERA+ for the Twins' bullpens, and to be honest I don't see how it's comparable. According to B-R.com's Play Index, the bullpen ERA+ for 2004, for example, is 87, while the starters' was 93. How that correlates to their overall 117 ERA+ I have no idea. Oh, for clarity, that'd be the bullpen that had Nathan (292 ERA+), Crain (236 -- 27.2 IP), Rincon (180), Romero (135), & Roa (105). I really don't see how that can be negated by < 100 IP from other, less effective relief pitchers. Sorry, but someone that has a better grasp on the numbers will have to investigate the bullpens. I thought I could figure it out, but this initial roadblock really puzzles me. Twins B-R.com 2004 team page Twins 2004 pitching splits page I bet the thing I'm missing will be really simple & embarassing...
  11. TooLiveBrew
    It's not that they weren't talented -- they were. I think they were both lucky & good... nothing wrong with that! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Also, I think the term "Moneyball" has transmuted into "Amazing GM'ing!", which is not necessarily what the book showed about Beane & the A's. I think Beane has done a good job in Oakland, but I thought Alderson (his mentor) did an even better job. The Twins, likewise, have been run in a savvy manner for some time now. i'd assume that teams with good bullpens tend to fair better in those tight one run games than teams with shaky bullpens. I've long wondered this myself. I'll have time to check into this in another hour or so, and plan on doing so. I'll just use ERA+ for a crude analysis again. If anyone else wants to take the reins on that one, feel free.
  12. TooLiveBrew
    It's not just Cubs fans v. Brewers fans, though. I don't think there are many Japanese fans voting to get Braun in there. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif
  13. TooLiveBrew
    AAA LH bats are obviously, not nearly as talented, and even those than can hit lack power. That's overstatement. I think the Triple-A pitchers that faced Branyan (& many other guys like him -- meaning, guys teams kept in Triple-A planning to call up... Trot Nixon pops into mind immediately) would tell you that LH batters in Triple-A most certainly can & do hit for power. Heck, the young guys too... Chase Headley (switch-hitter), etc. (I could find more, but don't have time to dig) To say that "LH batters that can actually hit in AAA don't have any power"... well, it's inaccurate. Unless of course this is the made-up land of Triple-A, where Joe Dillon supposedly hit well. Then anything goes!
  14. TooLiveBrew
    I'm sure they have had good luck.... and bad... over time luck gets washed out and is not a factor. Yes, I'd point to their postseason WOAHs as a good indicator of this. I'm quite aware of luck related to sample size. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif I'd be curious to see the Twins team stats on the so called 'clutch' stats the last five years. (i.e. BA with RISP, etc.) and how that differs from their overall stats I'll just use OPS+ so I don't have to type out 4-part batting lines for these scenarios/settings: 2002: 103 OPS+ // 94 OPS+ w/RISP // 102 OPS+ w/RISP, 2 outs 2003: 102 // 92 // 97 2004: 95 // 106 // 92 2005: 88 // 99 // 106 2006: 101 // 110 // 118 Record in 1-run games // Extra Innings: 2002: 29-16 // 10-4 2003: 22-20 // 9-8 2004: 24-16 // 13-8 2005: 27-30 // 16-9 (**CWS 35-19 in 1-run games, 13-8 Extras! Wow.) 2006: 20-11 // 10-4 EDIT: I can buy a team being somewhat lucky over a season, but when you average about 90 wins over five straight years, i'm not putting much stock into luck being a factor. I wonder what people think about the Twins having the *worst* (not bad) W-L tallies in the seasons where their 1-run game record was average or so, combined with so-so performance with RISP & RISP + 2 outs. Honest question.
  15. TooLiveBrew
    What does Rickie Weeks have anything to do with this? I think the Twins have had some nice good luck over the timespan I cited above. And I don't think there's anything wrong with that. It doesn't make them a franchise that wasn't run quite well.
  16. TooLiveBrew
    The luck thing holds less water the longer the timespan. "Well-run" does not disqualify a team from being lucky. I don't think the two are mutually exclusive. The Twins have had some good talent, but certainly no behemoths until recently (imho Morneau & Mauer are the two best position players to come out of that system in the past decade or so). I think the Twins had more than their share of good luck in the regular season, and probably an undue amount of bad luck in the postseason. I don't see why it has to be 'lucky' vs. 'well-run'... I think it's both, but many people adhere to the belief that you create your own luck, so now my head is spinning. EDIT: For a little gardenburger to my argument (in honor of Prince, no meat)... 2002: 94-67, AL Central Champs (+ 8 Pythag.; 103 team OPS+, 108 team ERA+) 2003: 90-72, AL Central Champs (+5 Pythag.; 102 OPS+, 103 ERA+) 2004: 92-70, AL Central Champs (+5 Pythag.; 95 OPS+, 117 ERA+) 2005: 83-79, 3d place AL Central (-1 Pythag.; 88 OPS+, 119 ERA+) 2006: 96-66, AL Central Champs (+3 Pythag.; 101 OPS+, 113 ERA+) Nothing overwhelming in there offensively, but obviously some lights-out pitching from 2004-'06. I think that, typically, 90+ win teams have better than league-avg. offense... which is where the idea that the Twins had some good luck in the regular season comes in. But I have to check into that theory some more before I can say whether or not it appears to hold up.
  17. TooLiveBrew
    I disagree -- He has been bad all year, from game 1, or as you point out 40% of the time FtJ, I'm referring to it bridging back to his time in Boston. I don't know if it did, but that's what I've wondered, and that's specifically what I was talking about there. If he has been hurt all year, Melvin is an idiot for signing him, and continuing to play him. Unless of course Gagne didn't know he was hurt or was hiding the injury... where have we seen that before... Cappy. DeFelice is pitching well, bumping him to roll the dice on Gagne makes no sense -- other than DM saving face. Agreed here. I would've preferred to see DiFelice stay with the big club for those rehab appearances Gagne should be making in Nashville. Has he been that way since he gave up roids? Who's to say that any of these ballplayers have stopped taking PEDs? MLB still can't test reliably for much more than anabolic steroids (iirc), so why would anyone stop? There's more than HGH & anabolics out there.
  18. TooLiveBrew
    That's true, and a good point. I didn't mean to cherry-pick, but that's exactly what I was doing. An injury certainly makes more sense than a mysterious loss of skill to me as an explanation.
  19. TooLiveBrew
    I'd bet that Hart will get in on the coaches' choices, which have nothing to do with the fan vote. Corey's exploits have certainly not gone unnoticed around MLB. Nearly every opposing announcing team (usually get the home announcing team w/Extra Innings) has gushed about him so far this season. Of course the main obstacle to Hart getting there is that Hurdle is all but guaranteed to add Holliday, so you're already down one spot.
  20. TooLiveBrew
    Hear hear. Prince has 'struggled' the past two weeks to the tune of an .803 OPS. That's right, this guy gets cold and posts an OPS over .800. Enjoy it! Why don't we get a thread started when he mashes for basically the entire month of June? (.924 OPS with just a .270 BABIP)? Oh, right, because he's supposed to do that, right?
  21. TooLiveBrew
    I disagree -- 8 bad outings in 20, is pretty unacceptable and bum-like. We've already had this song & dance. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif I don't think Gagne has been as bad as many (most?) do. That's all. I don't find some struggles over a whopping 19 1/3 IP for a RP all that troubling. Yes, it sucks that the most expensive guy we added has turned out to be right there for 'worst', but that's how it goes sometimes -- not to mention that his 'bum-like-ish-ness' was pretty clearly affected by injury. I'm interested to see how effective he can be if indeed the injury was holding him back & he's now healthy/ier. Gagne and his contract will be gone in 2009. Whether this works out or not in the second half, I applaud Melvin for taking the lower risk shot and for deepening the bullpen. Yes, me too. Gagne's contract was basically Melvin playing with house money. I really, really like one-year deals for FA with a club like Milwaukee, especially when you're talking about filling out a bullpen.
  22. TooLiveBrew
    That's awesome! What a great story. How can you not like this team? Bilitz, a high school chemistry teacher at Wisconsin Lutheran High School who won $47,000 on "Wheel of Fortune" this year, showed up to the last two games of the series in a full retro uniform, everything from the hat, Ben Sheets jersey and belt with pants, socks and turf shoes. He was seen by Sheets around the team hotel Saturday night, prompting the ace to run up to the fan. "I gotta get me one of those uniforms," Sheets told Bilitz. Cameron saw Bilitz standing above the Brewers' dugout as batting practice started and said anyone in full uniform belonged on the field. "I can't get you in the game but I can get you on the field," Cameron told him. Once there, Bilitz met several players and played catch along the first-base line with Cameron. "Fantasy camp doesn't start until February," Cameron later said. "So I figured I'd give him a treat."
  23. TooLiveBrew
    I just think all the 'GAGNE STINKS!' talk is a bit overstated. He really wasn't that bad, just didn't provide what most feel $10M should 'buy' you. 12 'good' outings, 8 'bad' outings by my count. That's a bit simplistic, but it's not like he's this bum that people try to make him out to be. I agree with jhart -- he's another solid arm in the bullpen. Very rarely do things shake out the way they're planned back in ST, especially with something as fickle as a bullpen. Gagne could be lights-out (not suggesting that I think he will be) in the second half, and people will just see his ERA and say, "See? I told you he's washed up" --So how was it 'planned'? CP - Gagne SU - Riske MR - Mota/Torres/McClung/Shouse --How'd it 'shake out' (so far)? CP - Torres SU - Mota/Riske/Gagne MR - Mota/Gagne/Shouse/Villy It looks to me that we've got several quality arms in the bullpen. I seriously kinda doubt that the way the 'pen is structured now is even how it'll look on Sept. 5th. I liked Melvin's philosophy on the bullpen before the season, and I still like it now. Get as many talented arms as you can, and just let the playing time work itself out.
  24. TooLiveBrew
    I can't wait for Prince to get hot again so he loses more weight -- what a yo-yo diet! In all seriousness, the concerns about Fielder this season seem 100% tied to whether or not he hit a HR in the last few days. 50 HR in 2007... fans got spoiled.
  25. TooLiveBrew
    I think it's fairly harsh to judge him based on 4 events. Nuh uh! It's easier to just say 'He stinks!' I agree, DeFelice gets hosed. Hopefully Gagne can come back & help the Brewers in innings 6-8.
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