TooLiveBrew

Great news! Congratulations (is that the right word?) Robb, and welcome back!

C'mon, Hardy is a career .325 OBP and Hall is a career .318 OBP, I wouldn't call that not close. Hall's has more to do with his power than how he works the count imho. Hardy is not a guess hitter like Hall, and takes BBs more from his eye at the plate than just a pitcher not wanting to give him a strike. I won't argue that Hardy has great on-base skills, just that his 'skills' (keep in mind Hall's MLB time has been largely healthy, whereas J.J.'s has been very injury-filled thus far) are better than Hall's. Maybe what I mean is BB skill. Any evaluation of how the skill translates to results is troublesome at this point, since J.J.'s had such (relatively) little healthy p-t. I don't think you can really use the results of either that effectively yet, since to be fair in terms of injury, Hardy's sample would be too small. Hall's is close to being a good amount, but I wouldn't want to try to conclude anything yet from what I'd feel are the appropriate samples. Thus, I go off the scouting reports & what one can see when watching them bat. Hardy just doesn't guess nearly the amount that Hall does (not that that's saying much), and imho has clearly superior on-base skills

Gimme those Orioles. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

3) While Dillon would probably be fine in the platoon, I think he's valuable off the bench. Our starters aren't going to keep this pace up forever...we'll need good PH off the bench. Dillon is very effective in that difficult role...he's a good contact hitter. I agree very much with this point. Dillon's best role is as our top sub/PH on the bench. I think that's where he provides the most value. I prefer to keep Hall in the platoon with Branyan, but if push comes to shove & Hall 'has' to be traded, Dillon isn't a big drop from Hall. That does create a problem with bench depth, but that's what a guy like Dillon is for -- if needed, he can step in & be that LHP side of the platoon. We'd have to find someone else for the bench, but that's an easier task than trying to find someone else to start.

No but after two years on the big league club he should be performing better than he has. Dillon is nothing but a bench player nothing more nothing less. He has shown little to no power to get extra base hits. He is slower than Hall, defensively he can't get to all the plays that a MLB 3B is asked to get to. He has a noodle for an arm. Offensively Hall is better than Dillon and brings more to the plate than Dillon does I wonder if you're capable of being more objective. Basically everything in that paragraph is something you've posted that others have shown to be false, yet you still re-post it all. Some more efforts at correcting myths: --Hall does not outweigh Dillon at the plate; Dillon compensates for whatever edge Hall brings in power with better OBP skills. (remember that OBP is generally considered 1.8x as valuable as SLG) --Should we stop at 'a couple guys who can do the high OBP'? Just two? You're advocating building an offense based on solo HRs --Kendall is really only similar to Dillon in that they both have good on-base talent. Dillon has much more power. --If you **(generic, not specific)** leave Hall in the lineup v. righties, you should have your head checked (esp. with Branyan available). If you swap in Dillon for Hall v. LHP, you really don't lose much at all. --Bill Hall is not a good basestealer. In the made-up land of Triple-A, Dillon actually was 15/20 in 2004, 11/12 in 2005, 6/7 in 2007, and 1/1 in 2008. That's 33/40 (82.5%) -- he hasn't yet attempted a steal in MLB, which may be a sign that as a player, he understands & accepts his limitations. Now you either have to put him in the 7th spot and if he is getting on he will just be a double play candidate with Kendall batting in the 8th spot. Dusty, is that you? EDIT: **to clarify**

Hall is indeed a guess hitter -- and one who tries to pull the ball out quite frequently/every time he thinks he can. It's no wonder his on-base skills are so bad, really. Hardy's on-base ability is just so much better than Hall's, it's really not all that close.

to all the posters ready to hang hall out to dry, remember your battlecry about many postings on prince and weeks--the season is still early, it's only 33% over--dont give up on them. but throw hall to the wolves. This is a fair & valid point. In fact, this popped into my head this morning as I was getting ready for work. Why do I differentiate with Hall? 2008 v. RHP: .162/.224/.324/.548 (.182 BABIP) 2007 v. RHP: .247/.305/.408/.713 (.308 BABIP) 2006 v. RHP: .261/.321/.525/.846 (.314 BABIP) 2005 v. RHP: .277/.319/.473/.793 (.314 BABIP) Career v. RHP: .253/.303/.450/.752 (.307 BABIP) Basically, because if we're fair & wait for him to regress upwards towards his mean or 'expected' performance v. RHP, we're waiting for (at best) what we already have with Branyan -- and Branyan's BB skills are vastly superior to Hall's. Hall has hit for a higher average v. RHP than Branyan, yet still has a (significantly) lower OBP. Hall's OPS v. RHP is skewed heavily towards SLG%. Branyan offers the SLG along with some BBs, not to mention superior defense. There really is no sense in waiting for Hall to hopefully give us inferior production to Branyan. Then, compared with Dillon, Hall just really isn't that special either. He's a better option against LHP, but really just not by enough for it to be a deal-breaker. Additionally, Dillon is every bit as capable of manning a dependable 3B as Hall -- Dillon is in the Branyan vein defensively. He won't make the spectacular plays that Hall (very sporadically) makes, but he will be solid & make the plays he should -- something Hall has been suspect doing (Mr. Matador). I like Bill Hall & agree in principle that he should be given similar expectations as Hardy/Weeks/Fielder, etc. However, in Hall's case, there are other sources for comparable (if not superior, on the whole) production. That's just not the case with Rickie, J.J., & Prince... or even Kendall. Hall has done everything the team has asked him to do over the years, but that doesn't mean there should be some sense of loyalty to the happiness of a player trumping the effectiveness of the team. EDIT: 4) Russell Branyan is not the answer. If he was, he would have been the answer somewhere, sometime. That's as strawman an argument as it gets, and people bring this up far too often when Branyan comes up. Russell Branyan's career OPS v. RHP is over .800. To call him 'not the answer' when what we need covered is the RHP side of a platoon, is making an argument that 'I don't like him, therefore he's no good/not the answer'. Branyan has been stellar so far -- have you been watching? He's playing over his head a bit to be sure (.400 BABIP), but his production has lined up with how he normally works. Lots of BBs, lots of power, and lots of K's. If Russell doesn't finish at least right near his .800 career rate v. RHP, I'd be absolutely stunned. It'd most likely have to include a nagging injury that would make him basically 'lose talent' (or appear to). He's just a very consistent performer against righties -- you 'know' what you're going to get from him.

If we 'can't' use his minor league success, what can be said to refute you? Of course you haven't yet mentioned Dillon's MLB line v. LHP -- .486/.581/.629/1.210. If that's not 'showing it', I don't know what is. Sure, it's only 35 PA but if minor league numbers magically 'don't count', then that's what we're stuck with right there. I have yet to see the 'Dillon is unfit to play 3B' development. He's been fine there. Hall's athleticism allows him to make some plays that fans remember over all the less-memorable 'Ole!' moves he pulls at third. Yes, he's been much better than Braun. That is not necessarily a compliment. Dillon doesn't have the arm for routine 3B plays? I think you & I might have watched different Joe Dillons.

I sucked as a CF - I felt it was a lot harder to judge balls coming straight at you than at the corner OF positions. I played the OF as well, and agree with this. But I never played past H.S., so that might influence things. If Weeks ever gets his OBP over .100, sure. Is that funny because it's not true? But I think that would explain why some fielders argue centerfield is easier - he'll cover the same amount of ground either place, but he doesn't have to deal with the more extreme slices. Yeah, that makes sense to me (intuitively).

Still happened a bit, but not as frequently for me.

So Dillon's 1 double against lefties so far this season is good enough? Good grief I was hoping you weren't basing your argument off just this season's PA. I hope that you aren't just being stubborn. I don't care what someone does in the minors. This speaks volumes for your argument. Were you in favor of Branyan being called up? On the other hand you have a proven player in Bill Hall who can hit lefties Proven that the role in which he provides value is less than 250 AB per season. No matter if Dillon was as bad as you're trying to claim (which he isn't), the drop-off still wouldn't be that big. Not to mention that Hall is better on defense at 3B than Dillon. Now that's just arbitrary. Hall's made some crazy plays over the course of his time in Milwaukee, and that's earned him a free pass to some extent. Imho it's relatively plain to see that when he plays D, he has the unfortunate tendency to play grounders off to his side (as opposed to getting in front of them), leading to misplays & errors. Dillon is every bit as reliable at 3B as Hall, although Joe won't be able to make certain (few & far between) plays that Hall can. Going from Hall to Dillon is a huge drop off in production. Repeating this will not make it true. Even if we take your definition of Dillon (which is basically as worst-case as it could be), I doubt the difference would even be near one win or loss.

Since 48 GIDP for 600 PA would be atrocious, I'd have to imagine that's a pretty large amount.

There's a reason he bounced around the minors forever, then retired before making the show. Yeah, stupid severe back injuries! Dillon sucks because he was seriously injured once upon a time! It'd be nice to get the facts straight. Dillon is a very serviceable RH bat, and really isn't this vast dropoff from Hall that people are trying to paint him as. Especially when you consider that Dillon can actually handle an at-bat against righties, Hall's value to the Brewers needs to be seriously re-evaluated. It's not that I think the Brewers are a better team without Hall... it's that we just aren't weakened that much if he's gone. If Hall were the righty-masher & Branyan were the lefty-killer, then this is a different conversation. But things are the way they are. But if Branyan is struggling at the plate you don't have a player who can put in against a RHP where you would be confident in getting some success from them. Putting Dillon in place of Branyan is a huge drop off in production compared to Hall replacing Branyan. No, it isn't. Hall has been nothing short of garbage against righties for more than just this season. The lack of change in Bill's approach is one decent indicator of his limitations as a hitter. Joe Dillon does not mash lefties quite as well as Hall. But since the LHP-side of a platoon is the vast minority of PA, the Brewers wouldn't really be hurt much (if at all) by going with Dillon over Hall.

I don't agree here. Hall is above and beyond Dillon against LHP I will take Hall's power and ability to get extra base hits over Dillon's ability to get extra base hits. The difference just isn't that big when you consider that the LHP-side of a platoon doesn't see nearly as much time as the RHP-side.

There is no proof to back up this claim. Except that he hit LHP well in the minors & has continued to have success in the majors. Sometimes you have to trust the scouting when there's no large sample. Dillon is yet another RHP that fares much better v. LHP... just like Hall.

I still don't see why a lot of people have this love affair with Dillon. I don't see a "love affair"... just the realization that Dillon v. LHP really isn't that big of a dropoff compared to Hall v. LHP. ARI needs a SS or 3B like I need a 3rd slice of pie. Was this a joke? Drew & Reynolds (with Tracy in the mix at 3B, too) EDIT: I see now that this was likely doa's point... that ARI doesn't need a 3B/SS

Wouldn't it be funny if Hall is the main piece in landing some SP help? As DJ points out, Dillon/Branyan should be a decent (or better) platoon.

"A .262 career hitter against right-handed pitchers before 2008, Hall felt unfairly singled out after switching positions several times in recent years at the club's bequest." How to alienate a fanbase, by Bill Hall -- "'(Bross) knows how I feel,' Hall said." Bill, with all due respect, get a grip on reality.

Another out for ARI... it's almost like other teams do this too. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif (Kendall threw out Drew in top 5th)

Big time, gonna go down as one of the best draft classes in the history of MLB. 1. Justin Upton 2. Alex Gordan 3. Jeff Clement 4. Ryan Zimmerman 5. Ryan Braun 7. Troy Tulowitzki 12. Jay Bruce 23. Jacoby Ellsbury 25. Matt Garza 42. Clay Buchholz Not to mention some others who have not made it to the bigs yet who are probably gonna be good. Just want to note that, during Upton's AB to lead off the 4th, Rock & BA were talking about this exact topic. Clearly zzzman knows baseball a heckuva lot better than he plays softball. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/tongue.gif

I like the hypnotist idea, personally http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

This whole thread has been to attempt to tackle that question. I think the consensus has been that the Brewers do it just about the same as the rest of the league... or if not, they're not far away from the middle of the pack. OP: It seems as if the Brewers make a silly out on the bases in pretty much every game they play. Does anybody know how many they've made in relation to the rest of the league? Post #8: I don't recall more than a out or two at home all year, and none without 2 outs (or on contact plays with a runner at 3B). Hart and Weeks get thrown out trying to steal once in a while, but I'm not sure where "all these outs" are coming from. I would compare this to the supposed "we've blown so many late leads", when in reality, they're about 20-2 when leading after 8. Just trying to assign blame when the real problem is simple; low OBP, subpar SLG, and a high ERA. Those are pretty difficult things to fix, however, so folks look for easy problems...however, they are rarely anything more than imaginary. Post #12: To me, it seems like we make more outs on the bases then our opponents do against us. I have no stats to back that up though. If my hunch is right it doesn't necessarily mean that we make more outs on the bases than other teams, it could mean that don't execute in those same situations when we are in the field. Post #13: the Crew has picked off several runners at 1B, Braun has some assists, and so on. Post #15: I don't mean to suggest that some topics are not worthy of being explored. We just don't even know if it's really a team deficiency, much less whether it's easy to fix. Fans always think their team: * Makes too many outs on the bases * Doesn't get enough clutch hits * Gives up too many 2 strike/2 out hits * Doesn't move the runners over often enough * Doesn't score a lead off double or runner at 3B with less than 2 outs often enough And on and on. As a fan, that stuff always seems to occur more often than they should. Often, I just don't think we can eyeball that kind of stuff and know if our team really is worse than average. We need to look at the numbers. Post #20: I remember a game against the Cardinals where Pujols made 3 outs on the bases and there were at least 2 hit and runs that went bad. I would guess it is tough to tell if we are worse than other teams and the Brewers just look bad because we see them everyday. Just to recap. I don't think we can trust 'seems like', because not many people here really watch enough of every other team to compare fairly.

Make baserunning errors & get injured? Pretty sure every team does that.

With all due respect, I don't see how one could consider CF a position devoid of having to deal with slices. Any ball in either gap is going to have some kind of tail to it, and CF is certainly regarded as the toughest of the 3 positions to play -- though I'll admit that might be mostly due to the large amout of ground to cover. Certainly the slices would be more exaggerated in the corner spots, but that factor might be largely cancelled out by the 'easier' parts of playing LF/RF.

I dont want to start this into a big steroid witch hunt but the way steroids influenced the game is shown pretty well I think by these stats. I agree. Sbrylski's post on OPS+ is a much more way to compare across eras. He thought it out better than I did. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif