TooLiveBrew

Our SP continually get rocked once they get to the 3rd time through the order The 3rd time through the order is notorious for being the death knell for most SP. Our hitters do need to approach at-bats differently, imo. More opposite-field intentions would be nice, and a single here & there wouldn't kill us.

Is Ned really this dumb? Unfortunately, yes. What should comfort people about Rickie is that he's struggling massively, yet is on pace for 30-ish HR.

25 lazy flyball HRs last season?

Well, maybe the boards were down for a day about nine months ago.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/tongue.gif http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif Nothing like a backdoor double entendre to class up a thread. Nothing like a second double entendre describing one. Wow, someone has their mind in the gutter. You can at least double that tally. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Is it a girl. I have found girl babies to be problematic. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif Yes, yes you have. Iirc, they get called 'the dark side'.

Wow, a fellow fan of The Soup! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif I love it.

Freddi's teams overachieving at the MLB level while Ned's team underachieve must just be coincidence, just like when Freddi consistently won at the minor league level while Yost was a massive loser in the minors. I don't mean their records, which I view to be an awful gauge of a manager. I mean their strategical tendencies. I admit I don't have enough of a sample to be sure with Gonzalez, but what little I've seen, I like. He'd be close to my ideal managerial hire -- limited small ball, proactive yet knowledgeable with his pitching.

That's an old myth. I can't recall which thread, but someone debunked it pretty well. The study they cited (done by a 'legit' baseball analyst) looked at #8 hitters all across the NL for the full 2007 season, IIRC, and actually found that notion to be not only incorrect, but that guys actually BB'd less batting in front of the P. Don't get caught up believing stuff just because it's been repeated a bunch of times.

The good thing -- imo, just mo -- is that he's been BBing while his bat isn't hot (14 BB with 108 AB). I think that's a very encouraging sign. Ennder basically predicted this improved BB rate from Hardy over the offseason.

The Cardinal not only have Pujols, but enough guys in the lineup that get on base to where i think they'll score enough runs to stay in the race. Their bullpen also looks pretty solid, it's the starting pitching for them that will decide their fate. I don't believe that what the Cardinals have is long-term at all. They've got several regulars playing way over their heads, and most if not all of them will come back to their norms imo. I want to point out that the bold-faced part is what I took exception to -- I don't think the Cards' guys will be able to keep getting on base this much, and if regression to the mean works as it usually does, some of these guys could be in for some ugly lines the rest of the way. Ryan Ludwick: .412/.455/.725/1.180 v. RHP (career .294/.354/.495/.849); .456 BABIP (overall 2008) Rick Ankiel: 17 BB (140 PA) on the season already (13 in 190 PA in 2007)... not sure what to make of it yet. Skip Schumaker: .337/.410/.506/.916 v. RHP (career .307/.351/.443/.794); .350 BABIP (overall 2008) Cesar Izturis: .323/.417/.355/.772, .357 BABIP v. LHP (career .267/.299/.341/.640, .287 BABIP); .244/.350/.291/.641 2008 overall (career .259/.297/.333/.630); high OBP for Cesar due exclusively to small sample thus far imo Adam Kennedy: .325/.380/.386/.766 (career .276/.330/.390/.720); .380 BABIP; .467/.500/.533/1.033, .500 BABIP v. LHP (career .252/.309/.336/.646; BABIP .298) Aaron Miles: .319/.373/.348/.721 (career .284/.325/.357/.682); 338 BABIP Brian Barton: .405 BABIP (his #s so far match his minor-league production, but that BABIP skews things) Brendan Ryan: .360 BABIP (yes, too lazy to do any more on him http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif ) Keep in mind that, for some of the younger/less experienced guys, their ridiculous starts have been wacky enough to skew the career numbers upwards, too. Even Pujols is very, very unlikely to sustain his .342/.494/.575/1.069 start (.343 BABIP), but it's obviously not too far off from his norms. Yadier Molina is one that's probably rocking out sustainable numbers, especially since he should be expected to improve going from his age 25 to age 26 season -- this is arguably the best C in baseball if his early start is no fluke. Also, Troy Glaus is one Cardinal that's started off really slowly... and I'd expect him to move upwards toward his career norms. Duncan will SLG more, too, but his BA/OBP at this point really aren't all that out of whack. On top of all these fluky starts, a relatively large amount of them have come directly against us. Basically, the Cards & Crew are polar opposites right now offensively. The Cards are playing -- in many cases -- at nearly inverse proportions to career norms, while the Crew has several extremely talented batters that are so cold to start you just can't realistically take it seriously. I don't even want to crunch the numbers on the pitchers... but here are the BABIPs so far. Lohse: .286 (.309 career) Looper: .288 (.295) Wainwright: .235 (.298) Wellemeyer: .270 (.291) Piniero: .297 (.300) Villone: .185 (.289) Basically, the Cards have been about as hot as a team could possibly be for the first month +. If anyone genuinely believes that they'll keep up these fluky performances... AND that the Crew will stay abnormally cold, then yes -- there's no way we catch them. I just think it's playing ridiculously slim (to none) odds that that will happen. In fact, if I do say so myself, it's downright foolish to think StL will keep this up. I only included Villone from the 'pen, since the others have reasonable BABIPs or will actually improve. Imo, it's way too small of samples in the bullpen to really 'know' anything yet, but they haven't really played that much over their heads yet. I could do the same research on the Astros, but I think the point is clear... and I really don't feel like doing this digging again. So if anyone wants to dig on Houston, it'd be appreciated. I just used baseball-reference.com (& fangraphs.com for overall BABIP... for some reason, I couldn't find the overall BABIPs at baseball-reference.com)

Counsell's wacky stance Is it just me, or does Craig look like he's 'crip walking' (a dance) in that pic?

Cox has a very proven track record and less talent to work with on his team. Less talent? You might want to check out ATL's roster again. They've got some very solid players. And fwiw, Cox's 'track record' was built upon having even more talented teams that, semi-famously, underachieved in the eyes of many (1 WS title to 8,467 NL titles).

Aside from that, there are some offensive high school team nicknames in our own backyard. As a favor to my former colleague at UW-Whitewater who held an editor post with the Oconomowoc Focus, I covered the Oconomowoc High School basketball team for a game and found the team name, "Cooney," to be offensive. Except the actual school name was Coons. Why are you stating this like you know it for a fact? I graduated from OHS. The actual team name is Cooney. It used to be Coons, but for obvious reasons, it was changed. "Cooney" is not offensive (though it is dumb), since it's used as a plural like "Magic" or "Lightning". "Coons", well...

Wow! Congratulations! BF.net clearly has turned into a baby factory -- who's up tomorrow? Handsome young lads, at that!

Just as the pitching 'disappointed' after a hot start, I fully expect the offense to regress toward the mean, just as the pitching did in 2007. In this case, that regression just happens to be upwards. I think the fact that the team is roughly .500 -- with all the crud that brewerjamie highlighted -- should help people keep some optimism. It's not that the team has 'earned' that record, but man, I'll take it. I don't think this team is going to have a much worse month the rest of this season, and we're still right in the mix.

Look up their prospect lists and pick some names off the list. Same goes with the Astros, who will be three games up on the Brewers by Monday. If they keep winning the chances that they are buyers come July keep growing. So, no as of right now the Brewers aren't as bad as they seem compared to other teams they are competing with, but those teams won't stand pat! Well, since you're the one that's proposing these big-time deals, I think you should be the one to craft the value they could get for a given combo of prospects, not me. I just don't think that either StL or Hou. have the kind of ammo in their farm to add a difference-making player as easily as you're implying. Beyond that, both StL & Hou have big-time limitations that would make someone that plays the odds pick against them sustaining these starts. I really don't have time tonight to delve into each team's start, but I'd be willing to bet that neither squad has faced the caliber of pitching we have, and there's probably more there too in terms of players playing way over their heads to start the season. If anyone should have tempered expectations with a hot start, it's Brewers fans.

Ok, so who do they trade off for these parts that will ensure them the title?

I love it when people see the light on Ned Yost! Welcome TLB! I'm sure you remember how strongly I loathe Ned Yost. I just tried out giving him the benefit of the doubt for the start of the 2008 season, to try something new. Ned Yost is not a capable MLB manager. Freddi Gonzalez, on the other hand, has impressed me so far -- not much small ball + competence in handling his pitching staff. That's a wicked combo. Just for an example, he had Gregg warming with a runner on first & two outs [in the 9th]. He had the foresight to prepare for the slight possibility a HR would get the Crew close, as opposed to hoping the Brewers wouldn't hit a HR. EDIT: bracketed segment, for clarity

Yeah, but you can keep going on the projections for the Cardinals from the beginning of the year all the way until they're 53-28 at the halfway point, and THEN they make a couple good trades to solidify their team. Everyone seems to leave that aspect out of the equation for a team like the Cardinals. Who said anything about projections? You want them to trade their top-flight prospect (Rasmus)? Ok, that might actually help us in the long run... but it ain't happening. You have to have trade ammo to land anything worthwhile.

Clearly, since the Braves were declared done by a message board, they're still dead. The Brewers are dead too, for the exact same reason. There's no way back -- 129 games just isn't enough to possibly overcome a 5.5 game deficit. The Cards are going to win 65% of their games all year long. We're done. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/eyes.gif

I've tried to play nice on Yost, rationalizing that he's not much worse than any other manager (heck, I even vowed to stay out of this thread for the season http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/eyes.gif )... tonight for me, though, was too much. The sheer fact that he still has no clue how to manage Dave Bush is a perfect microcosm of nearly everything I find wrong with Ned Yost. No one warming as the 6th started? Ok, I can't get too upset about that. No one warming after the 2-R HR in the 6th? Wow. No one warming after the solo HR that followed? I'm speechless. Please do correct me if I'm wrong on that sequence, as I was watching the FSN-Florida broadcast. They were very good in every other instance (if they missed this one) of showing RPs as they warmed. It's not like there weren't signs that Bush was pitching the same way that h does nearly every time out -- walked the leadoff man, and then got lucky that Helms's smash was hit right to Cameron.

What're you talking about?! Having "clutch" quantified as part of a player's rating is a GREAT idea!

Often times, being "hot" at the plate can be attributed to mainly being "lucky"... though in many situations you can create your own luck by being really zoned-in at the plate.

I've had this back & forth too much in the Gagne thread to go into it here http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

That'd probably cheer most people up here. That, and how crappily the Cubs have been playing lately. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

If I'm manager I'm using my best reliever when I need an out whether or not it's in the 9th or not. Two on and one out in the 6th, with a one run lead and I want my best guy in there now. Ahhh... the good old 'Fireman'. There are a lot of ways in which specialized player usage has evolved & improved the competition/difficulty in MLB. The closer role imo is sadly not one of them. http://www.baseball-almanac.com/players/pics/dan_plesac_autograph.jpg Man, was he great. I notice from another image search return (back of a '90 baseball card) that in '89 Danny threw 61 1/3 IP in 52 games, registering 33 saves... and he was lights-out (17 BB / 52 K). Meaning, he cleary came in for certain non-save situations (& did so fairly regularly), and also commonly pitched more than one inning. I knew this from following the Crew then, but it was great to see yet depressing at the same time. I agree with NievesNoNO -- 'closers' only exist due to overvaluing & overpaying for an odd stat.