TooLiveBrew

That's just pessimism! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif The only concern I have re. Villy is whether or not he can keep his BBs down as a SP. He really didn't do a great job (overall) in limiting BBs in 2007. If that problem persists, he could really log some long IP in 2008. I think considering his FB & CU, as long as he can mix in his other breaking pitch(es), he'll do just fine in terms of 'stuff.'

I really agree with your summary, FTC. Especially... Also, trading for Roberts doesn't solve their SS problem, and it would basically force DeRosa back into a part-time, super sub role. Right - and DeRosa has already publicly expressed that this would frustrate him. Not saying I'd care if I were a Cubs fan, but there's that to consider. Maybe the Cubs feel comfortable enough with DeRosa getting time in RF (in addition to 3B/2B/SS) that they aren't worried about his ABs.

His change is certainly a plus pitch, and if you're talking about 'topping out', it's more like 90-93 mph (nitpicking, I know http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif ). He operates in the 88-91 range regularly.

Damon covers more ground & is likely still the better glove man, but his arm is horrific. As for Matsui & Abreu, they were both once much better defenders, but now - especially Abreu - age has caught up to them. Neither one is a large amount better than Mench on D, just mho. I've watched enough Yankees games in the past 2-3 seasons to feel comfortable in what I'm saying. I can agree with you that the Yankees OF is crowded, but Mench is strong enough against LHP to warrant at least the PT he got in Milwaukee. Melky Cabrera doesn't exactly mash LHP, either. However, with Duncan in the fold, it's probably a safer bet that Kevin's not heading to NYC.

describing Theriot as a black hole is a tremendous exagerration. Perhaps it is, that I can admit (did I call him that?). What phrase do you prefer? He's bad offensively, and below-average (at best) with the glove. Abyss? Deep trench?

They replaced 2 poorly-aging, declining outfielders in Jacque Floyd, with Kosuke Fukudome, who seems to be a .300 hitter with 15-20 HR pop, who can steal and play Gold Glove-caliber defense in right. That's a major upgrade. I'd also wager that Geovanny Soto all year will prove to be an upgrade over Jason Kendall in Chicago, last year. Fukudome isn't going to be that much of an upgrade over Jones/Floyd. Cameron's impact alone (Braun to LF, Hall to 3B, improved d in CF, better O than Menchkins) will far outweigh that move. Floyd went .284/.373/.422/.795 in 2007. Poorly aging? Hardly. Jones (.285/.335/.400/.735) really wasn't far off from career norms - not really aging poorly, either. He actually outperformed his career OBP in '07. Fukudome should be a modest improvement, but he has health concerns which may end up limiting his PT. Not sure why you pick Kendall as the C comparison, since he only played a couple months for the Cubs - but Soto will likely be an upgrade for them. By how much is anyone's guess, since his BABIP will not be in the stratosphere like it was for all of 2007 (minors included). Without that sky-high BABIP, Soto isn't anything all too special last year. It's just too hard to predict as of now, but like I said - I agree he'll be most likely an improvement. I'm not sold that it'll be anything that's going to make a huge difference. Roberts would help them, to be sure. But he doesn't solve the black hole at SS that's the Cubs' achilles heel in terms of position players. Maybe DeRosa can log some innings at SS, but given how long he's been in MLB, if he could handle the position full-time, he'd have probably gotten that shot by now, given his offense. Could Roberts handle SS? Perhaps, but I honestly just don't know.

I just see an aging catcher who can't throw anyone out, who rarely hits for even doubles-power, and hasn't been given much rest, and I'd rather have sacrificed that #8 slot in the batting order to a younger, cannon-armed, defense-first guy behind the plate. I just can't share your optimism about the old fella. That's all. I hardly call "optimism" guesstimating a .335-.340 OBP from a guy who's routinely done far better than that. Frankly, a .335 OBP for Jason would be a large drop-off in production... it's just that coming from Estrada, it happens to be a big upgrade for the Crew.

Every projection system has him at lg-avg. for CF or better, so I just don't see why you're so skeptical. He's been young for every stop he's made in the minors, and done just fine. In fact, he really outproduced what Soriano did in the minors, yet here Soriano is as a top hitter. Not sure what being/not being a top-5 has to do with anything here. Was Corey Hart ever a top-5?

Abreu v. LHP 2007: .262/.329/.349/.678 '05-'07: .277/.363/.400/.763 Damon v. LHP 2007: .281/.353/.353/.706 '05-'07: .305/.376/.424/.800 Matsui v. LHP 2007: .272/.363/.451/.814 '05-'07: .308/.370/.498/.868 Mench v. LHP 2007: .314/.343/.558/.901 '05-'07: .305/.361/.558/.919 By no means do you add Mench to straight-up platoon with any one of those guys, but he's better against LHP than any of them. Guys need days off, and occasionally a PH. Each one of those guys put up numbers in 2007 v. LHP that's well below their 3-yr. splits... and they're all over 33, so it's reasonable to think that none of them will ever get back to those 3-yr. levels. There'd be plenty of ABs for Mench if he were to sign with NYY - 452 AB v. LHP in 2007 for this spotlighted trio. I guarantee you Mench could easily see 200+ AB v. LHP there, and that's obviously more than the 156 he had as a Brewer in 2007.

It's not just offense with Theriot, he's not good defensively, either - but the offense alone is bad enough for concern. Avg. NL SS (2007): .279/.337/.420/.757 Theriot (2007): .266/.326/.346/.672 Also, not sure why you're so down on Pie. 2007 NL CF avg. line: .273/.336/.426/.762. That's just about what every projection system has Felix doing in '08, and imho PECOTA's the only one (.284/.339/.470/.809) that's got him anything more than pessimistic.

He gave up some big innings that skewed his overall performance in Boston, since it was just 18 2/3 IP.

I meant that with Roberts, the Cubs as a team have one of the best leadoff through cleanup battings orders in all of baseball......Roberts/Soriano/Ramirez/Lee, and dont forget Fokudome....he might wind up being a pretty decent #5 hitter. I expect him to hit 20+ HR and hit around .270 Oops - sorry! That point very well could be true... though I don't personally think Soriano would/should hit in the top 4 of an order. #5 imo is the ideal spot for his swing. the affordable Aaron Rowand At first I thought you were being sarcastic - 5 years, $60 mil. is most certainly not affordable. We signed Cameron to a 1-yr./$7 mil. deal, with a team option for a $10 mil. second year (and only a $750k buyout!). I think Gagne will be a slight downgrade from Cordero, but not enough to count for much more than maybe one game... and the overall bullpen improvement should well offset that.

I dont buy the "improvements" the Brewers made in the off-season making them a drastically better team. This is exactly the mentality I was addressing. You don't "buy" them? What's there to buy? The team has been improved all-around, without question. Gagne's tenure in Tex. was far better than 'not all that impressive' - especially considering the Ballpark in Arlington is a hitter's park. Torres & Mota are here to throw the Spurling & Aquino innings. Kendall will be a big upgrade in OBP, while being a lateral move defensively - at worst. How do you not mention the biggest acquisition in Cameron? Roberts is not one of the best 1-4 hitters in the game. He's a good #1 or #2 type. He gets on base very well. Pie will not be a liability, Marshall is a marginal 'prospect', and I think that's one reason why this deal hasn't gotten done yet - Marshall alone isn't any reason for any team to trade a player like Roberts. And especially not Angelos, whose favorite player is reportedly Brian. The Brewers have improved their team more than the Cubs have improved theirs... but why do people act like there's this un-climb-able mountain down at Wrigley?

Is Damon still their CF? Nope, but my point is that three of their main 4 guys are LH batters... hence the usefulness of Mench.

More like 50-60%. I did type "plausibly expect." ... You can't blame me for extrapolating 2007 stats for an aging, overused catcher - the most physically demanding position in the game, and allowing them to influence what I expect from JK this year. And even then, I'd say I'd only weigh his 2007 numbers at around a 50-60% ratio... Alright, so if it's 50% 2007, shouldn't it be also 50% 2006? Or do you just choose to ignore 2006 entirely? If you don't choose to ignore it, I have no explanation/understanding for how you can be so doom & gloom.

Woe is me... the Cubs are the runaway favorites because they improved SO much... If only the Brewers had made some offseason moves that improved them drastically from 2007. Oh wait... Let's not forget about the changes that've been made by the Brewers - actually of bigger impact than anything the Cubs have done. If the Cubs get Roberts, perhaps then they've improved as much as the Brewers have this offseason.

I also think they'd be fairly foolish to deal Pie at this stage of his career. If the deal meant the Cubs would send Pie to the AL, I'd actually probably root for it to happen (long-term).

Steroids. Hilarious FtJ, try some high post stuff with your one capable offensive player. Get him the ball near the elbows, and run cutting off of that - I'm assuming he's a capable passer given the other descriptors you provided. This way, your corner-magnet guard has no reason to dribble to the corners, your PG has no reason to take the ball to the paint, and you can utilize the straight-line speed of the other guard moving toward the basket off screens set by your other post player. Obviously there's more to it, but them's the basics.

This would be a better fit for Mench, as he might get a chance to play some OF for the Royals. Yankees already have enougth OFers, but offer a chance to play for a World Series. As I mentioned earlier, with Damon, Matsui & Abreu all being LH hitters, Mench would have plenty of AB in NYY - and the chance to play for a WS. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

Keep in mind that you could always RA after going abroad.

Sir Galreath Weathersby VII

No problem. What stood out most to me (aside from talk about the fans) was how hungry he sounded when talking about playing for a contending team again. Also, the way he laughed as he mentioned how great a hitter's park Citizens Bank Park is made me realize just how good it in fact is. "The biggest thing we're expecting is really to be riding the stick of the NL Central again." I think this means something about a stickshift, but Gabe's analogy choice could have been less... you know.

If the money doesn't concern you I think the study abroad is the way to go.

If this had been announced when it happened, I think people here would have flipped. Like fish on cement, gasping for water.

More like 50-60%. I did type "plausibly expect." And again, numbers from 2007...recent stats for such an old codger, are more likely to be reflective of where his career is these days, than back when he used to hit when he was younger. You expect JK to rebound, even though there was no tangible injury excuse, or sudden league switch, or divorce, or other personal issues. And that's fine. But I'm saying it's Estrada, who's younger, and sustained 2 procedures to clean up problems in the EXACT areas (running and throwing) that we were all griping so much about. Out of the 2, they'll both probably underperform in 2008, but the bounce-back factor looks like it could favor Estarda better than Kendall, since JE at least WAS injured. Is there an excuse? No. But do his numbers at 33 count 100% toward forecasting 2008, while age 32 is totally forgotten and ignored? 2007: .242/.301/.309, 31 BB/42 SO 2006: .295/.367/.342, 53 BB/54 SO Car.: .297/.375/.394, 1.09 BB/K 2006 was a darn good line from a C. And my guess is nowhere near that. To go one step further, which do you think is more likely next year from Jason - .226/.261/.281 or .270/.362/.356 (the first was his time from Oak., the second his time in Chicago)