logan82
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Everything posted by logan82
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I still think there is reason to believe they will win more games in 2016 than they did in 2015. They played much worse than their talent to begin the season.
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They lost 94 games but they were not a 94 loss team. Their talent was close to .500 but they underplayed their talent. 68 wins is not the starting point that should be used.
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Different people. Some never wanted to tear down or didn't think they needed to. Most of the posters I remember wanting things to change have been in favor of most of Stearns' moves. The people I see who seem to dislike the moves are the usual suspects and some of the newer posters.
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About 6... there you go. and I had to add in how many extra players to bring it up to that? That also completely ignores how bad some of the players we got rid of were. The Brewers were only about a win above replacement level at 3B in 2015. We were not as good at those positions that we can't replace the production there or take only a small step back. This all completely ignores that the Brewers likely way under-performed their talent for the first couple months of the season so 94 losses is not a good starting point. Who said they would have a winning season in 2016? I just said that 2015 had a couple of really bad months at the start and their talent was not a 94 loss team in 2015. Teams pretty consistently over and underplay the level of their talent on a yearly basis. We did both in back to back years.
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Gomez, Lind and Rogers had about 6 fWAR between them. That's not nothing. If you assume they will be replaced by replacement level players in 2016, that's a pretty big step back on a team that doesn't have a ton of room to step back.Lind was 2.2 and Gomez was 1.6 while he played for us. By my math that's only 3.8 wins. Just under average. Add in the 1.2 From Parra and that is still only 5. Add in Rogers and we are up to 5.7. I don't assume those guys will be replaced by replacement level players. Logan Schafer, Hector Gomez, and Luis Sardinas are gone and so is their -1.5 WAR. I don't use WAR for pitchers and the stat gets really sketchy for relievers since it is a counting stat. Lohse is gone and closers are replaceable. I am in no way suggesting the players added make us better let alone by 9 wins. I fully expect the Brewers to be a losing team. The problem is that there is a wide gulf between losing 94 games and being a 94 loss team. We were not a 94 loss talent team so 94 losses is not the right starting point. We were more like a 82ish loss team at the start of last year.
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When did Braun get traded? Our 3B wasn't very good so not a big loss. Gomez was pretty average this year so not a big loss either. Our 1B wasn't great either. Closers are replaceable. Overall we really haven't lost much and could possibly be better at some of the fringe positions rhat got a lot of playing time. Add in that we were probably more like a .500 or a little below talent team in 2015 and I would be surprised if we lost close to 95 games. Unless we trade Lucroy my guess is we are around 85 losses. Just a little bit worse than 2015.
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Looking over Braun's defensive stats since 2009 he is around average in LF. He had a steady improvement until he moved to RF. I think average is a fair assessment. Picking out one year, especially one a few years back, is a misuse of defensive metrics.
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I don't care that much about the money. I want talent. Keep Garza unless you can get good talent back. Eat his whole contract if that's what it takes to get good players back in trade.
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If they have a hot start and decide to trade younger players for veterans, I would lose all confidence in the franchise. The GM shouldn't do it and the owner shouldn't let him.
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Wasn't Ren shot in the stomach not the chest? I don't buy anything other than a mind wipe and previous training.
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Rey is the daughter of Luke. She turned to the dark side and slaughtered all the jedi training under Luke. He wiped her mind and left her on Jakku.
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Mike Leake to Cardinals (5 years/80 million)
logan82 replied to ZBTMP's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Loshe would have been a good signing around 2008 - 2011. The big problem with the Lohse signing was we were a mediocre team more than one pitcher away. Wolf wasn't a terrible signing. It didn't cost us a pick and made us better in 2011. It was enough to push us into the playoffs. -
Why does Professor Snape have a red lightsaber? Stormtrooper masks keep out smoke but not toxins? Ugh.
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Where was Wedge? General Phasma did basically nothing.
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The First Order has disbanded OSHA. No handrails anywhere. Stupid exhaust vents. People clapping in the theatre was stupid. Someone actually tried to start a slow clap when Luke showed up. We thought it could have used a Scorsese ending. Instead of Luke at the end, it's Kylo Ren and he beheads Rey.
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You don't need to use the spoiler thingy in a thread that is all spoilers. Luke trained in a T-16 shooting womp rats. He also had some firce training with Obi-Wan. Rey had no training with the force. Her just being able to use the force without any training bugged me. Every single other person has had some training at some point.
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I honestly would think relieving is harder on an arm than starting. You have irregular work or can be overworked.
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I still have not had the movie spoiled. I hope that the moderators of this board ban anyone who spoils the movie outside of the designated thread. 15 3/4 hours to go.
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It does help though. The gains in the draft pool are pretty significant every spot you move up from #5 to #1. A higher draft is no guarantee but it certainly helps. Even if the prospects don't pan out they can make good trade bait just based on draft position. They are also a product of not realizing your team is mediocre and reacting to late. We could have been building for a couple years already and had a contender by now or next season while we still had Lucroy. I hope they go into a deeper level of suckage next year just to come out stronger. I really don't care if we win 40 or 75 games. It's still losing and one helps more than the other.
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Strikeouts & Winning... Does it matter?
logan82 replied to pacopete4's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Strikeouts as a tool for evaluation are not useful. Whether a hitter could improve by being a situational hitter is definitely questionable. It could result in bad contact and more outs if a player adjusts their approach. maybe hitter do adjust and the results are bad because they did adjust. -
Right, so the best way to build a team is to make a team that will get into the playoffs as much as possible and hope you are hot at the right time. With a smaller market we need to have success drafting and developing players if we want sustained success. We let our talent get funneled into just a few players with little talent coming up in the minors.
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I am glad no one has mentioned Star Wars or spoiled it. I see there is a thread started and I hope everyone keeps the Star Wars talk there. I still have 43 and a half hours before I see it.
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5/$89m that adds up to. $20m for the option year is how I would read it. It's actually a pretty reasonable deal especially 2019 and 2020 even before the deferred money. Certainly nothing that will hurt to pay.
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What the non-stats crowd is saying (some more tactfully than others) is that metrics don't tell you that: 1) Last year was the first year that Braun played RF ever in his baseball career (possibly impacting the routes he took to go after balls), and B) Braun had back problems last year (which might very well have hindered his ability to go after balls, dive after balls, etc.) Can both of these two things change next year? If the answer is yes, then it's not definitive to say that he is a terrible RF. He might have been last year, but not necessarily moving forward. I think we could have guessed he would be below average in LF last year and probably will be going forward. Not as bad as he was but still not good. He was below average in LF almost every single year he was there against a worse defensive peer group. I think we can safely say he will be below average in RF next year and every year from here out. He will get less and less athletic going forward and I wouldn't count on his back holding up for a full season ever again. His back and other core muscles have been a problem almost every single year for him.
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I thought Braun's problem on defense was pretty much everything. Poor throws, poor fielding, and bad instincts. At least in the OF he can use his athleticism to make up for his poor instincts. At this point I would keep him in the OF because I think he should never be in the infield. More importantly I think 1B would be more wear and tear on his body. Ge has had core problems for years now. I wouldn't want gim doing all the reaching and constant bending a 1B has to do. It really sucks that we have so much OF talent.